There's plenty to get stuck into in both codes this Saturday and our value-seeker has some big-priced fancies at Ascot and Haydock.
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Value Bet tips: Saturday May 11
1pt e.w. Appier in 1.30 Ascot at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Abduction in 2.40 Ascot at 50/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Aurigny Mill in 3.15 Haydock at 20/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, bet365)
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Appier than ever
There may be a little something for everyone on offer this Saturday but it’s not the greatest punting day in my view and after the usual thrills and spills of Chester, with York’s Dante meeting around the corner, I’m happy to keep the staking relatively low.
Having recently put up Illinois for Epsom at 40/1, I’m obviously hoping to see the beaten Ballysax favourite follow the lead of stablemates Gallantry, Capulet and others who have since shown their early-April comeback runs to be much needed, but I can resist backing him around 5/2 for the William Hill Lingfield Derby Trial Stakes.
His stablemate Rubies Are Red is a little more tempting despite going into the William Hill Oaks Trial Fillies’ Stakes with her maiden status still intact. The fact this filly - Found’s full-sister - is even lining up here speaks volumes and she could be ready to post a considerable PB tackling good ground rather than heavy, which was the case on her Galway maiden last year and when second to Galileo Dame at Leopardstown last month.
She was a little outpaced in the closing stages that day and the form was rather let down by the winner at Chester in midweek, but this daughter of Galileo has loads more to offer upped to the thick end of a mile and a half on a sound surface, particularly with that comeback run under her belt.
She does have runaway Wetherby winner Danielle in opposition here, though, plus Ralph Beckett's You Got To Me, and I think there are better bets at more attractive prices to be had elsewhere, starting with APPIER in the Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% Handicap.
He’s become a habitual slow starter but can get away with that here, seeing as there are four or five in the field who like to force the pace, and Appier should be doing some good late work if they go hard in front as he’s proven over a little further than this 12-furlong trip.
They tried to turn him into a stayer after winning over this distance at Lingfield last June but two miles seemed to stretch him at Newcastle and here at Ascot (soft ground) the following month. He's much more effective on a sound surface anyway and the fact he's been beaten four times since that Lingfield success means he's slipped back to a mark just 2lb higher.
With promising 5lb claimer Brandon Wilkie taking over, he's decidedly well treated, while trainer Sean Woods has had a couple of recent winners too so I’m willing to roll the dice on the fitness front as it is Appier's first start since November.
Goldie to strike at big price
All the right horses look to have found their way towards the head of the market for the Lavazza & Ascot 10 Year Anniversary Victoria Cup and even the one I had in mind around 20/1 straight after final declarations – Arabian Storm – is no bigger than 14s and shortening fast at time of publication, so I'm content to change tack.
Bless Him and Rhoscolyn have their merits but I can’t for a second believe ABDUCTION should be one of the complete outsiders so have to have a small each-way interest on Jim Goldie’s horse near the bottom of the weights.
Goldie has enjoyed some memorable days at Ascot over the years, including winning this race with Hawkeyethenoo in 2011, who also finished third in it at 25/1 four years later. Dhaular Dhar was third for the stable at 33s back in 2009 too and he’s not had too many runners in it over the past decade. But just last year Goldie landed a valuable Ascot pot with Call Me Ginger and his record here over the past five seasons is a perfectly respectable 3-21 (14%), so I tend to respect whatever he sends south.
Goldie also has the ex-Aidan O’Brien-trained Londoner in the line-up (80/1) and he's highly speculative having shown nothing since his move from Ireland, but Abduction looks more like a 20/1 chance to me having ended last year with career-best efforts when second over six furlongs at Ayr before winning narrowly over this seven-furlong trip at Wolverhampton.
He’s been nudged up another couple of pounds for that which asks a new question, but runner-up All The King's Men won easily off 1lb higher in November and the third Percy's Lad was second in a hot Craven meeting handicap before going one better at Chester on Friday, so it’s not exactly form to be taking lightly.
All ground comes alike but Abduction has won on good to firm, his strong-travelling, hold-up style looks ideal for this sort of contest on the straight course at Ascot, while stall 15 (middle-to-stand-side) doesn’t look a bad spot for jockey Ethan Jones to work from as Popmaster (17), Mostabshir (19) and Arabian Storm (21) seem likely to give those drawn high a decent tow.
Jones, who takes off a very useful 7lb, has never ridden at Ascot before but he's making a bit of a name for himself at the moment and should be arriving in confident mood after a couple of winners in the last two weeks.
Worth a dart in the Swinton
Up at Haydock, Lark In The Mornin is the blindingly obvious one in the Pertemps Network Swinton Handicap Hurdle having been raised 8lb for his Fred Winter win at Cheltenham, where the soft ground was said to be against him. He could still be well ahead of the assessor but he's a very short price too and I’ll take the Irish horse on with Victor Dartnall’s AURIGNY MILL.
He looked on great terms with himself when winning back-to-back handicaps at Wincanton and Kempton during December but was then pitched into the Betfair Hurdle and not a lot went right, including the bottomless ground which he seemed to dislike.
Given a decent break after that forgettable effort, Aurigny Mill returned to action with a much more promising run at Chepstow a fortnight ago, settling near the back before travelling smoothly into contention coming to the second-last. He then appeared to blow up and made a mistake at the final flight to make matters worse, so the fact he finished fourth, beaten over 10 lengths, probably wants upgrading quite a lot.
He clearly enjoyed getting back on a sound surface there, though, and it left the impression he might have been lined up for something like the Swinton. He’s still 7lb higher than for the latest of his wins in the last campaign but he definitely has a touch of class this horse and I can give him another chance at the prices.
Published at 1600 BST on 10/05/24
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