Ross Williams looks ahead to Sunday, picking out his best bets from an interesting slate of NFL match-ups.
NFL betting tips: Week 13
- 2pts Los Angeles Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals - Over 50.5 Total Match Points at 10/11 (General)
- 2pts Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) to beat the Chicago Bears at 20/21 (General)
- 2pts Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) to beat the Washington Football Team at 10/11 (General)
- 1pt Jonathan Taylor & T.Y. Hilton (Colts) to both score a touchdown at 4.11/1 (Paddy Power)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports NFL
This should be an absolute treat in the early Sunday window as two of the AFC’s hottest young quarterbacks do battle in Ohio.
In what could be a playoff dress rehearsal for many seasons to come, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert are set to go hammer and tongs in an offensive fire-fight and, with that in mind, I really like the total match points market for this game.
The line is currently set at a very generous 50.5, and I’d even be happy to get involved if it climbed as high as 55 points.
Los Angeles’ run defense has ranked dead last in the league all season long, and it’s become a major issue for Brandon Staley’s Chargers. It’s not going to be fixed at this late stage of the season either, so the Bolts are realising that attack is the best form of defence.
All of their best wins this season have involved Herbert’s offense picking up at least 30 points and, faced with a dangerous Cincinnati rushing attack this week, that offensive explosion will likely have to be the game-plan again on Sunday.
As for the Bengals, they’re sitting pretty right now in the conference standings, but it’s not all been easy for Zac Taylor’s breakout squad.
When you take a look at their last six games, the case for over 50.5 points in this one becomes clear. Cincinnati scored at least 30 points to secure each of their four wins during that period, while conceding 34 and 41 points respectively in two straight losses.
The Bengals have become a win-big-or-bust team, and that should mean fireworks on Sunday.
Best Bet: Los Angeles Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals - Over 50.5 points at 10/11
Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL RedZone on Sky Sports Mix
Arguably the best team in the NFL - coming off a bye week – with their starting quarterback back in the saddle. In theory, this should be a simple assignment for the NFC-leading Arizona Cardinals and I’m not about to overcomplicate it.
The Bears – home soil or not – are not a good football team and I don’t anticipate many more results going their way for the rest of the season, with a tough schedule ahead.
Chicago did win their Thanksgiving clash more than a week ago, but even that was a mediocre performance at best, beating the winless Detroit Lions (without their star running back for much of the game) by just two points.
This week, they face a re-tooled Cardinals that are fresh from a break and Kyler Murray – an MVP candidate with some catching up to do after three games on the shelf.
Murray was sensational before his injury and there’s little reason to suggest he won’t continue his fine form at Soldier Field this Sunday. Chicago’s only hope relies on their ability to stop the former first-overall draft pick in his tracks, and I don’t think they quite have enough.
Although the Bears’ pass rush is pretty effective, the better quarterbacks in the league have had their way with the Chicago secondary. They are one of five teams in the NFL that are consistently allowing a quarterback passer rating of more than 100 and that simply won’t wash against Kyler and the Cards’ high-powered offense.
Unless massive (shocking) improvement is made, I expect Arizona to breeze past the Bears on their way to an exciting playoff run.
Best Bet: Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) to beat the Chicago Bears at 20/21
Washington Football Team @ Las Vegas Raiders
- When: Sunday at 21:05 GMT
- TV: NFL RedZone on Sky Sports Mix
On paper, this is the tightest game of the week, but I’m willing to stick my neck out and take a chance on the home team.
The Raiders have had an up-and-down season to say the least (more off the field than on it) but this plucky Las Vegas team have kept on trucking.
Under the circumstances they’ve faced, many other teams would have crumbled, but the Raiders have shown immense grit in picking up wins in unlikely scenarios - not least in last week’s Thanksgiving win over the Dallas Cowboys on the road.
There’s a clear togetherness to this group of men and at the core is a belief that if they keep on winning, they could end up with a wildcard berth when the AFC playoff picture eventually takes shape.
Washington are on a similar run at the moment themselves, but I don’t love this matchup for them.
The key to the Raiders’ success is quite clearly Derek Carr and the Football Team’s secondary is not exactly the model of efficiency against the pass.
When Carr is allowed to throw plenty of volume, it generally works out for the Raiders. In fact, every time their quarterback has thrown for more than 300 yards this season, Las Vegas have won the game.
Although I have no doubt Washington can score points themselves, their defensive frailties stand out to me as the key factor on Sunday. The way to stop the Raiders is to stop Carr and Ron Rivera’s Washington just aren’t equipped to do so.
The Football Team rank 30th in the league in defensive pass yardage and there isn’t a team in the NFL that has conceded more passing touchdowns this season. It’s a recipe for disaster for Washington and the Raiders should be licking their lips at the prospect of getting the ball in the air as much as possible.
Best Bet: Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) to beat the Washington Football Team at 10/11
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
- When: Sunday at 18:00 GMT
- TV: NFL RedZone on Sky Sports Mix
The Colts are in must-win territory in each of their remaining AFC match-ups this season and I don’t expect them to slip up in this one.
The Patriots and the Raiders will provide stiff opposition after the bye week, but this divisional clash with the Texans ought to be another day at the office for a Colts team that is widely regarded as much better than their 6-6 record suggests.
I don’t anticipate Houston to provide much of a challenge to Frank Reich’s outfit on Sunday. Indy won the return fixture 31-3 after all so - by all means - consider taking the Colts on the handicap. However, I’d sooner look for further value in a game that promises at least a few Indianapolis touchdowns.
I’m taking a double in this game, with both of these players coming into Houston with quite the reputation.
First up we have Jonathan Taylor, who will likely be the shortest-priced touchdown scorer in the NFL for the remainder of the season. The second-year running back is enjoying a campaign for the ages and he is bidding to become only the fifth player in NFL history to score a rushing touchdown in 10 consecutive games.
The Texans are poor against the run generally so should offer little resistance to the MVP contender, and he’ll be keen to put in another statement performance after being held back somewhat in the loss to the Bucs last week.
Veteran Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton is the second leg of this touchdown double and there’s a very clear reason why. The game is being played in Houston.
Hilton has travelled to the home of the Texans nine times during his excellent career and it’s a trip he absolutely adores. Over the past decade, the man affectionately known as ‘The Ghost’ has haunted his AFC South rivals to the tune of 1,061 yards and eight touchdowns on enemy soil.
This won’t be lost on the Colts’ play-calling staff and, after getting Hilton into the end zone last week, I’d be amazed if Carson Wentz isn’t told to pull the trigger for his most experienced receiver when the Colts reach the redzone on Sunday.
In what may be his tenth and final appearance wearing the Horseshoe in the stadium that he has dominated, it would only be fitting that number 13 goes in for another six points.
Best Bet: Jonathan Taylor & T.Y. Hilton (Colts) to both score a touchdown at 4.11/1
Odds correct at 2045 GMT (03/12/21)
More NFL content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.