In his final pre-tournament preview, Ben Coley picks out a 4/1 double for Thursday's three-balls and ponders a potential advantage for those out late.
Golf betting tips: The Masters round one
2pts Conners and Bridgeman to win their three-balls at 4/1 (General)
Tuesday's much-anticipated release of Masters groupings always helps build excitement for Thursday's first round, but from a betting perspective it was more than a little frustrating.
I'd hoped to oppose Alex Noren, whose record at Augusta is the worst among all established professionals, but he's in with two I find hard to split in Viktor Hovland and Patrick Cantlay. Hovland sounds enthused with his game and merits favouritism, but Cantlay outperformed him last time out and is very comfortable here.
Taking on Matt McCarty was also the plan and I'd love to have been able to do so with Nicolai Hojgaard, but it's his brother Rasmus who completes a three-ball featuring Vijay Singh. And another Rasmus, Neergaard-Petersen, hasn't been doing enough lately to be considered reliable against Aldrich Potgieter, though I'm nevertheless surprised the Dane isn't clear favourite on the first show of betting.
Collin Morikawa is clearly not going to be 100% fit and I'd generally have been happy doubling down on Hideki Matsuyama in that group, only the world-class, ultra-reliable Russell Henley, who boasts a solid Masters record, is just not someone I want to be opposing. And so you get the picture: unfortunately, all those I'd identified have been put in with two I can't split at the prices.
There does appear to be one particularly solid afternoon option in the shape of COREY CONNERS, who looks a good bet to put his positive Augusta experience to use against two rookies.
Powerhouse Michael Brennan has a bright future but he could hardly have been playing a more suitable course last time out and 28th there was his best golf of the season. In general he's been disappointing and as his weakness is what he does on and around the greens, it's easy to imagine this place spooking him a bit under fiery conditions.
Granted, Conners' putter is his problem club too but he's a better chipper and pitcher than Brennan and coupled with his tee-to-green reliability, I'm confident he'll prove good enough to account for the young American.
The bigger issue might be dodging one of Harry Hall's red-hot putting days and he's dynamite around the greens too, but his ball-striking is unreliable and his short-game can only take him so far. It's his first look at Augusta and his overall form this year is patchy, whereas Conners arrives on the back of his best two performances, his irons firing again, and is a definitely each-way player.
Conners has four top-10s in his last six Masters appearances and has been starting brightly of late, so everything points to him being hard to beat at odds-against.
Adam Scott might be too strong for Daniel Berger and Brian Harman, two much shorter hitters with mediocre records here, but the Aussie isn't exactly known for starting brightly and tends to grow into this tournament. I'll be watching that group closely with an eye on Friday's second round, but for now don't want to be taking on two high-class former Ryder Cup players who are both dangerous over 18 holes.
Preference is for JACOB BRIDGEMAN, who is a long way ahead of Sergio Garcia and Aaron Rai on this year's form and, providing he can handle the occasion on his Masters debut, should underline that point by bossing his three-ball.
I'm keen on Bridgeman to be the top debutant this week as he's simply a world-class golfer right now, with top-20 finishes every time he's played this season, including a near-miss at Pebble Beach, a win at Riviera, and another big effort to be fifth at Sawgrass. He's arguably the most improved player in this field and is doing everything well.
Rai isn't and successive missed cuts at more suitable courses are a worry, while Garcia sounded very downbeat when speaking to the media on Tuesday. Given that he's missed six cuts in seven since becoming Masters champion in 2017, that suggests he's in for another early exit and at the very least is someone to be taken on following a mixed bag of LIV results.
The double on Bridgeman and Conners pays 4/1 and, on a tricky first day, that will do for my money.
Late could be best for first-round lead
In recent years I've shied away from the first-round leader market, despite having once landed a big-priced winner here which is more than can be said for my outright selections. Partly that reflects the way the market has shifted – Charley Hoffman was about the same world ranking and profile as someone like Conners, but was twice the price the Canadian, whereas the 100/1 shots this year are hard to build cases for.
I feel you need to have reason to favour a particular part of the draw if you're to get genuine value but there is more than a hint that the later starters could have the best of things, as it's expected to be both warmer and calmer. There's no guarantee that the gusts forecast for the morning arrive, and if they do they might depart by the time the best of the early starters tee off, but it seems sure to be much cooler for them.
There are plenty of instances of one of the latest tee-times throwing up the leader and Justin Rose was from the afternoon wave last year as he made it a remarkable five first-round leads in his Masters career. He's off late again and is sure to have his backers, as might Jordan Spieth and Brooks Koepka alongside him given they've another five between them too.
Spieth and Koepka made a bit of appeal but they've not been starting fast this year and that's regularly been a good pointer, which brings the likes of Conners, Maverick McNealy and Min Woo Lee into the equation. None though made sufficient appeal at the prices and to be honest, perhaps the best bet is the favourite, Scottie Scheffler, who boasts a sub-70 scoring average in the first round and is seldom far away here.
At the other end of the scale, Danny Willett has placed twice in four years which is more than you can say for most 200/1 shots, while somewhere in between I did consider Harris English, who shot his best Masters round on Sunday last year and subsequently led the Open. English and Conners would be the two I was closest to siding with, but the main message here is to monitor the weather with a late bias in mind.
Ultimately, I'm happy to continue avoiding this market unless evidence of a draw bias is overwhelming. Right now it isn't quite.
Posted at 20:30 BST on 07/04/26
More Masters content
- The Masters: Player-by-player guide
- Masters specials: Best prop bets
- Stats and in-play betting guide
- Augusta National: Hole-by-hole
- Ben Coley's tipping record
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