Sporting Life
Bukayo Saka (right) is congratulated by Declan Rice

World Cup odds and betting tips: Who to back in the quarter-finals

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Sat December 10, 2022 · 3y ago

The World Cup has reached the quarter-final stage, but who is value to progress? Jake Osgathorpe uses Infogol's xG model to highlight some best bets.

Using Infogol's xG model and probabilities, this article will aim to provide a verdict for who will is most likely to win their quarter-final and advance to the semis.

  • 'To qualify odds' are in brackets next to team names and via Sky Bet

World Cup betting tips: Quarter-finals

2pts England to qualify for the semi-finals at 5/4 (Unibet)

2pts Netherlands to qualify for the semi-finals at 7/5 (Unibet)

0.5pt Croatia to qualify for the semi-finals at 9/2 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

England (Evs) v France (8/11)

  • Kick-off time: 19:00, Saturday
  • TV Channel: ITV 1

This could be a hugely exciting game of football between two fantastic sides.

England have really impressed in Qatar, creating plenty of chances while keeping their opponents at bay fairly well.

The Three Lions have averaged 1.99 non-pen xGF and 0.79 non-pen xGA per game, and have a wealth of experience in knockout games at major tournaments after deep runs in both the 2018 World Cup and 2020 Euros.

France have looked fantastic in attack, generating 2.36 xGF per game, with Kylian Mbappe in irresistible form and looking unplayable at times.

There are defensive question marks around Les Bleus, and this will be the best attack they have faced at the World Cup.

The market has the reigning champions at a best price of 3/4 to qualify, with England at the 5/4 mark, and it's the latter that represents value according to the Infogol model, making ENGLAND TO QUALIFY the selection.

England and France are extremely evenly-matched across the board, so the fact that there is a big gap between the pair in the market doesn't look right.

The Infogol model makes it 11/10 England, 10/11 France, giving the Three Lions a 48% chance of advancing compared to the markets implied chance of 44%.

There could be fireworks, with both teams boasting an array of attacking talent, but the value lies in siding with Gareth Southgate's men.

Croatia (9/2) v Brazil (1/8)

  • Kick-off time: 15:00, Friday
  • TV Channel: BBC One

According to the 'qualify' odds in this game, we are to witness a very one-sided affair.

Brazil are a best price of 1/6 - implied chance of 86% - to progress to the World Cup semi-finals, and while the tournament favourites are rightly short to advance, the 9/2 price about CROATIA TO QUALIFY underestimates the Europeans massively.

Infogol's model has the Croats as a 33/10 shot to qualify from this tie, meaning the value lies in backing Zlatko Dalić's side to small stakes.

Yes, Brazil have been excellent at the tournament so far, catching the eye with their incredible blend of defensive solidity and attacking flair, but this is the toughest test they will have faced up to this point.

While Croatia are a small nation in the world of football, they are one to be feared, boasting an excellent recent record in both tournament knockout matches in general of being incredibly difficult to beat.

Let's start with 'in general'. Croatia have lost just one of 20 international matches since they were knocked out of Euro 2020, with just three of those being friendlies.

Their knockout form stands up too. Croatia have not lost in normal time in seven of their last eight knockout games at major tournaments - the 2018 World Cup final being the only game in which they were beaten in 90 minutes.

A similar story could be on the cards here, and the longer the game goes on without Brazil asserting their dominance on the scoreboard, the better Croatia's chances are of qualifying in my opinion.

Netherlands (11/8) v Argentina (8/15)

  • Kick-off time: 19:00, Friday
  • TV Channel: BBC One

We have a classic World Cup encounter to look forward to on Friday, with the Netherlands and Argentina going head-to-head.

It feels as though neither team has got out of second gear in Qatar, with the Dutch doing just enough in games, and Argentina struggling to fire consistently in attack.

From an XI v XI perspective, other than the little maestro Lionel Messi, there is little between these two sides.

Argentina have been more solid defensively, allowing just 0.33 xGA per game, but have faced a cake-walk of a schedule so far.

The same can be said for the Dutch, but while Argentina are the pre-tournament fancy, I don't see as much between these two sides as the market does, and the Infogol model makes the NETHERLANDS TO QUALIFY a solid value play.

This will be a very cagey game between two evenly matched teams, and it could just be that we need to factor in the quality of manager as well as players here.

Louis van Gaal is a fantastic coach, and his in-game changes could prove pivotal up against a still fairly unproven Argentinean coach, Lionel Scaloni.

That is enough of a reason in my mind to give the Dutch a nod, and with the model making them an odds-on 19/20 shot, the 7/5 available is too big.

Morocco (5/2) v (2/7) Portugal

  • Kick-off time: 15:00, Saturday
  • TV Channel: ITV 1

Spain's conquerors Morocco get another Iberian giant in the next round, with Portugal their opponents after they smashed Switzerland 6-1.

The market understandably likes the Portuguese after that victory, with Fernando Santos's side looking much better for his decision to drop Cristiano Ronaldo.

While the Atlas Lions should be respected, the price on them qualifying is too short according to the Infogol model.

In fact, the model actually makes Portugal the most likely team of all eight quarter-finalists to make it to the semi-finals, giving them a 76% chance of doing so.

That would make the best price available of 4/11 for PORTUGAL TO QUALIFY a value bet, so if you want to back that at that price you would be on the right side of things.

I will say this, if the line-ups are announced and Ronaldo is back in for Portugal, that would personally make me rate their chances of progression lower than if he's again on the bench.

The 2016 Euro winners look a much better team without CR7 in the XI, they look more fluid and less burdened, so for the sake of their chances in Qatar, I hope they keep Ronaldo sidelined.

Odds correct at 1900 (06/12/22)

ALSO READ: Our best bets for every game on every day of the World Cup

World Cup: More from Sporting Life

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