There is a huge game on Wednesday between Saudi Arabia and Mexico, with both needing a positive result to progress. Jake Osgathorpe provides the bets.
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Football betting tips: Saudi Arabia v Mexico
1pt Mexico to win to nil at 2/1 (General)
Saudi Arabia are in a position to qualify, needing a win to guarantee it while a point may also be enough depending on the result in the other game in the group between Poland and Argentina.
For Mexico, it's simple; win or go home.
However, while that may make some teams go all-out-attack in a desperate bid to get the required result, I don't think Mexico have that about them. Even with their backs against the wall, I think we will see a controlled and pragmatic display.
Fortunately for the Mexicans, they are playing a Saudi Arabia side who have been among the worst defensive teams in the competition according to xG, so even their preferred style should see them generate chances at a greater rate than their opening two contests.
The Saudis have shipped a combined 5.03 xGA, and even a Poland side who were toothless against Mexico managed to rack up the chances.
At the other end of the pitch, Mexico have been excellent in Qatar.
They allowed just 0.32 non-penalty xGA against Poland and 0.35 against Argentina, so are very tight defensively, and so far at this tournament Saudi Arabia have mustered a total of 1.61 non-pen xGF.
So, while the state of play suggests we could get an open encounter, I think it's worth chancing the opposite, and given the defensive frailties of the Saudis, taking MEXICO TO WIN TO NIL is worth a small play.
The way in which Poland in-particular created chances against Saudi Arabia last time out is a concern and should give even a limited Mexico side confidence in forward areas, while a clean sheet seems likely given their defensive strength.
Saudi Arabia v Mexico best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Mexico to win to nil at 2/1 (General)
Score prediction: Saudi Arabia 0-2 Mexico (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (28/11/22)
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