Poland and Argentina currently sit in the top-two spots in Group C. Tom Carnduff picks out a best bet as they meet in Doha.
Football betting tips: World Cup
1pt Bartosz Bereszynski 2+ fouls at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
Poland head into their final group stage clash top of Group C and in a decent position to progress. The four points on their tally gives them a chance even with Wednesday's opponents the shorter price for success.
Victory for Argentina will likely see them finish first and keep them on course for a potential semi-final clash with Brazil further down the line. They remain the odds-on price to win this group despite the shock defeat to Saudi Arabia.
While they did concede two in that loss, they have seen just 0.35 xGA across their opening two matches. A remarkable defensive showing that puts them in a great position here.
Poland did have the third-highest xG tally of any nation across the second round of group fixtures though, so they will try to gain confidence from that as they look to test Argentina.
One area they have excelled in is fouls - with only Japan and Saudi Arabia (36) seeing more committed than Poland (33) across the two rounds of games played so far.
This creates a mismatch against an Argentina side who have been the most fouled (39) by far at this tournament. We can expect that to continue given that a draw will be enough for Poland to progress.
There are a number of players to look at in Sky Bet's 'fouls' market here, but the one price that jumps out is BARTOSZ BERESZYNSKI 2+ FOULS at 5/2.
The left-back committed two fouls in their draw with Mexico on Matchday 1, and a busy right-side of the pitch for Argentina should see him caught out on one occasion.
La Albiceleste have seen 40% of their attacks in the tournament so far going down their right, as opposed to 30% on the left. That should mean a busy evening for Bereszynski.
Angel Di Maria will be his most likely opponent, while Lionel Messi drifting out wide and full-backs driving forward create situations where a foul is the better outcome to bring a temporary end to the attack.
It's also the game state benefitting Poland, who will be happy to create a contest that lacks any sort of flow to try and gain their point to progress. Fouls will be a way to do this.
Referee Danny Makkelie also gave 24 fouls in Spain's 1-1 draw with Germany, so he isn't afraid to be strict when required.
The 5/2 is a generous one considering the above factors - with his team mates finding prices failing to break even money on the same line.
Poland v Argentina best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Bartosz Bereszynski 2+ fouls at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Poland 0-1 Argentina (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Odds correct at 1330 GMT (29/11/22)
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