In what was once a Premier League classic, Newcastle take on Manchester United at St James' Park. Jake Pearson has previewed the fixture, picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Man United to win and Both Teams to Score at 2/1 (bet365, Boylesports)
Newcastle may be officially the richest club in the Premier League, but they have plenty of work to do to ensure they can claim the same come the beginning of next season.
Level with bottom-placed Norwich on ten points, the Magpies are in a tough spot, and after things began to look up for Eddie Howe following his side’s 1-0 win over Burnley at the beginning of December – their first victory of the season incidentally – things have taken a turn for the worse since.
Newcastle have lost their last three successive matches, conceding eleven and scoring just one, and though all three fixtures were against teams that finished in last season’s top five, the defensive issues facing Howe and his staff remain painfully clear.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Monday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Newcastle 7/1 | Draw 7/2 | Man United 2/5
No one has conceded more goals than the Magpies this season, while only Watford’s clean sheet record is worse than the sole one Newcastle can boast, but more than that, the quality of chances they are allowing is alarming, conceding a league-high of 2.09 expected goals against (xGA) per game.
At home the figures do not get any better, but the one ray of hope for the St James’ Park faithful is the attacking talent already at the club.
Newcastle have 18 goals this season, more than two of the top eight (Tottenham and Wolves), and their expected goals process shows that is no fluke, creating chances equating to 19.0 xGF this season.
There is the potential for encouragement then, as they face a Manchester United side who have already conceded 24 times this season – only once in the last 11 years have the Red Devils conceded more goals at this point in a campaign.
Despite currently occupying sixth place in the Premier League, United have the sixth worst defence according to expected goals, conceding chances equating to 1.74 xGA per match.
Ralf Rangnick has certainly arrested the slide somewhat as far as the United backline is concerned, keeping consecutive clean sheets in their last two league matches, but they still conceded more than 1.0 xGA in both of those games, and have done in each of the German’s four matches in charge.
In attack, United remain a definite top-six team, averaging the sixth most actual goals per game and the fifth most expected goals per game; in short, this game shouldn’t be short of goal-mouth action.
Only games involving Leicester this season have seen Both Teams to Score land on more occasions than Newcastle matches (67%), while 56% of Red Devils fixtures have also seen both teams find the net – 62% when away from home.
Both teams are fancied to find the back of the net in this fixture, but backing MAN UNITED TO WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE makes a lot of appeal at a price of 2/1.
The Red Devils are unbeaten since Rangnick took charge, winning three, and are as short 4/9 to make it four. But even their current top price of 13/25 (1.52) doubled with the best price of 11/14 (1.79) about BTTS returns less than 7/4.
To take it a step further, even when removing the margin of both these selections and betting both at the true price (1.527 and 1.829), the double still returns odds of just shy of 9/5.
All of this simply means the 2/1 is too big a price and should be backed accordingly.
Newcastle v Man United best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Man United to win and Both Teams to Score at 2/1 (bet365, Boylesports)
Score prediction: Newcastle 1-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1610 GMT (22/12/21)
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