Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Manchester City to win at 5/6 (General)
BuildABet @ 17/1
- Manchester City 6+ corners
- Nico O'Reilly 1+ shots on target
- Nico Gonzalez 1+ shots on target
The addition of a fifth spot for Champions League qualification has made the battle for Europe's elite club competition a fascinating one in the Premier League.
Manchester City's failed title defence - one in which they never looked close to achieving it - has left them scrapping to simply finish in the top five, while Aston Villa are aiming to replicate last season's heroics with a repeat appearance in Europe.
The bookmakers go 1/3 that the hosts finish in the top four, with 1/14 on the five. Villa aren't given as favourable a view as they sit as outsiders in both markets.
The home form has helped Villa but it's performances and results on the road which have been problematic. If they aren't to finish in the key European places, that will be one of the main reasons why.
What are the best bets?
In games in front of their own supporters, Villa have won four of six against those currently above them. Arsenal were the only side to beat them (2-0 in August) while they picked up a draw with Liverpool.
Away from home is a different story though.
The draw with Arsenal is the only point they've gained from a possible 15 - City are the final side they travel to in the top six.
Chelsea and Newcastle all won by three-goal margins. Crystal Palace, Tottenham and Wolves the other sides to have gained maximum points when Villa were the visitors.
While Manchester City may not be at their usual best this season, there's still appeal in the 5/6 on a CITY WIN.
City's only league defeats since December 21 have been away at Arsenal, at home to Liverpool and away at Nottingham Forest.
Home wins this season have been against Chelsea, Newcastle and Nottingham Forest - all of which saw them scoring at least three - with two coming in the second-half of the campaign.
At the price, I'm happy siding with the trends mentioned above to continue.
Team news
Pep Guardiola remains without a number of first team options for Tuesday's contest.
Nathan Ake, Ederson, Erling Haaland, John Stones and Rodri are all missing meaning that we could see a similar line-up to the one which beat Everton on Saturday.
Unai Emery continues to have a full strength squad to choose from.
Like Guardiola, he could be tempted into sticking with the same unit considering their convincing win over Newcastle last time out.
Predicted line-ups
Manchester City XI: Ortega; Nunes, Dias, Gvardiol, O'Reilly; Gundogan, Nico; Silva, De Bruyne, Savinho; Marmoush.
Aston Villa XI: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Maatsen; Kamara, Tielemans; Rogers, Asensio, McGinn, Watkins.
Match facts
- Manchester City have won their last 14 Premier League home games against Aston Villa, scoring at least twice in each of the last 13. Their last defeat was in April 2007 under Stuart Pearce.
- Aston Villa have won two of their last three league games against Man City, as many as in their previous 23. They’re looking to complete their first league double over the Citizens since 1962-63.
- Across their 14 consecutive home Premier League wins against Aston Villa, Man City have trailed in just two games, going 1-0 down in May 2010 and 2-0 down in May 2022 before winning 3-1 and 3-2 respectively. In Premier League history, only City themselves against Newcastle United (an ongoing run of 16) have won more consecutive home games against an opponent.
- Manchester City have conceded 21 home Premier League goals this season, their most in a season since the 2015-16 campaign (also 21). They last conceded more at home in a season back in 2003-04 (24).
- Aston Villa have won their last three away Premier League matches, keeping a clean sheet in each. Their last longer away winning run was between November and February in 2008-09 (7), while they’ve never won four in a row without conceding in the top-flight.
- Manchester City have won each of their last nine home Premier League matches in April by an aggregate score of 35-8. The last side to beat City at the Etihad in this month was Leeds United in a 2-1 win in 2021.
- Aston Villa have won each of their last two away Premier League games 3-0, beating Brighton and Southampton. That’s as many three-goal away wins as they’d had in their previous 84 away games combined. They’ve never achieved this in three away top-flight games in a row.
- Manchester City have scored 36 goals in 11 home games in all competitions in 2025, scoring two or more goals in 10 out of 11 games. Their goals per game average of 3.27 is their fourth best in a calendar year, behind 1898 (3.31, 53 in 16), 1895 (3.29, 46 in 14) and 2019 (3.29, 92 in 28).
- Omar Marmoush has scored six goals in his six home Premier League appearances for Manchester City so far, scoring every 81 minutes, while across his last 17 home league appearances, including his time with Eintracht Frankfurt, he has 14 goals and six assists.
- Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins has had a hand in 48 away Premier League goals in 88 appearances (34 goals, 14 assists), including five in his last seven (4 goals, 1 assist). Only Gabriel Agbonlahor has reached 50+ goals and assists away from home for Villa (40 goals, 19 assists).
Odds correct at 1130 BST (21/04/25)
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