Jake Pearson previews Watford's trip to Old Trafford to take on Ralf Rangnick's Manchester United, picking out his best bet and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Manchester United to win (-1 handicap) at 20/21 (Sporting Index)
Ralf Rangnick’s quiet revolution at Old Trafford continued on Wednesday evening as Anthony Elanga netted an 80th-minute equaliser against Atletico Madrid – ‘quiet’ being the operative word as Diego Simeone’s side dominated proceedings for much of the game, ultimately unfortunate not to take a lead into the second leg.
It took Manchester United’s unbeaten run in 90 minutes (counting their penalty shootout defeat by Middlesbrough in the FA Cup) to 10 matches, with their 1-0 loss to Wolves at the beginning of the year the only time the German coach has lost a match in regulation time since his appointment.
Scoff as you might, United are improving under Rangnick.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Man Utd 3/10 | Draw 17/4 | Watford 17/2
Watford, by contrast, have not improved as they might have hoped under Roy Hodgson, the Hornets taking just four points since the former England manager took charge and now four points from safety.
After an encouraging 1-0 victory over Aston Villa last weekend, a 4-1 loss to Crystal Palace in midweek was very much a case of one step forward, two steps back for Watford.
Things do not get much easier for the Hornets either, with fixtures against Arsenal and Wolves immediately following their trip to Old Trafford, a journey that could end in another humbling defeat for Hodgson’s men.
In contrast to the narrative that many in the media industry are peddling, Manchester United are actually a good attacking outfit under Rangnick.
Through the 12 Premier League matches he has overseen, United’s expected goals (xG) process is up to 1.81 per match, from 1.57 through the 14 games prior to him taking charge.
For context, that is the same total that Chelsea have averaged this season, with only Manchester City and Liverpool holding a higher xGF average this term.
Despite Hodgson’s attempts to shore up the Watford defence, the Hornets are still leaking goals, and considering the Red Devils have netted six times across their last two league matches, it isn’t difficult to see Rangnick’s men hitting the target on at least a couple of occasions.
United are a short price for victory, but so they should be, and perhaps even shorter.
The current price of 20/21 about MANCHESTER UNITED -1 HANDICAP suggests the layers make Watford roughly 1.5 of a goal worse than the home side, but perhaps the reality is a bit harsher, with the Red Devils closer to two goals better.
That would make United minus a goal just a little shorter than 4/5, suggesting that the price available with Sporting Index – as well as the 10/11 that is generally available – is worth getting onside.
Man United v Watford best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Manchester United to win (-1 handicap) at 20/21 (Sporting Index)
Score prediction: Man Utd 3-0 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1300 GMT (24/02/22)
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