Sporting Life
Jake's predictions

Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 25/26 Matchday 34

Football
Thu April 23, 2026 · 3h ago

Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 486.25pts | Returned 535.90pts | P/L +39.65pts | ROI 8%

Football betting tips: Monday Night Football

Friday 20:00 - Sunderland vs N Forest

1pt Neco Williams 2+ total shots at 17/10 (Betway) - min price 6/5

Saturday 12:30 - Fulham vs Aston Villa

1pt Jochim Anderson to be carded at 19/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 3/1

0.75pt Timothy Castagne to be carded at 5/1 (bet365, Betway) - min price 7/2

Saturday and Monday bets to follow***

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

I'm back after a brief holiday, though anyone with children who has visited Disneyland will know that another holiday is needed straight away. Unfortunately I don't have that chance, so it's straight from Mickey Mouse and the gang and back to the drawing board.

That's because the last few gameweeks for us have been tough, losing over 9pts of the profit we'd built. The overall picture is still green but with just five gameweeks remaining, this column will be looking for more winners, playing on the attack rather than parking the bus in true Jose Mourinho style.

This weekend, with three teams in the FA Cup semi-finals, we have a limited Premier League slate that starts on Friday and ends on Monday, but without any Sunday action.

There are some big games amongst the slate though, especially at the bottom where Tottenham have their easiest remaining fixture, but also at the top where a bottling Arsenal have to dig deep to bounce back after a shocking last six.

Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest

On paper this game doesn't whet the appetite but there is plenty to play for for both Sunderland and Nottingham Forest as they clash on Friday.

The Black Cats, who were dealt a dagger-blow last weekend in conceding a late loser, are only three points behind seventh-placed Bournemouth (Conference League qualification) and four behind sixth-placed Brighton (Europa League qualification) so a strong finish could see them sneak into Europe.

Forest meanwhile have pulled clear of the drop zone with two wins in the last three but are still only five points above the dotted line so aren't out of the woods yet, while they have a Europa League semi-final six days after this.

I don't really want to back either team here, with the draw a major runner in my mind, but the stalemate is priced accordingly short (generally 11/5). Under 2.5 goals is also short at 8/11, so we'll head to the shots market where Forest full-back NECO WILLIAMS is backed to take 2+ TOTAL SHOTS at 17/10.

The Welshman is a shot-machine for the Tricky Trees, averaging 1.32 per 90 from left-back as he so often cuts inside onto his favoured right foot and pulls the trigger. He has fired 2+ shots in all of his last four starts and comes up against a Sunderland team who do concede plenty of attempts.

In fact the Black Cats have conceded the third-most shots in the league this season (481 - 14.6 per game), which suggests William should get opportunities to pull the trigger a couple of times.

Score prediction: Sunderland 1-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

Odds correct at 14:45 BST (23/04/26)

Fulham vs Aston Villa

Fulham have really hit the skids. It's just one win in six across all competitions, with that sole victory against Burnley the only game the Cottagers have scored in over that time. Marco Silva's side have struggled to create in that span, averaging just 1.15 xG per game.

That suggests it's a good time for a surging Aston Villa side to play them. Unai Emery's men are back in business, winning six of their last eight in all competitions to simultaneously move themselves eight points clear of sixth and into the Europa League semi-finals.

An away win was tempting at 6/4, but with an in-form Michael Oliver at the whistle, we'll venture to the cards market where TIMOTHY CASTAGNE and JOACHIM ANDERSON are both selected at 5/1 and 19/5 respectively.

That's because of Aston Villa's left-side and their card-drawing ability. Across Villa's last 11 games against Premier League opponents, 10 have seen either the opposing right back or right centre-back get booked, so backing both this weekend in the hope at least one wins again makes plenty of appeal at the prices.

Right backs have been booked six times in 11, right centre-backs the same, with the double landing on two separate occasions. Castagne isn't the most card-heavy player, collecting just three this season so stakes are slightly reduced on the Belgian, with a full point on Anderson, who has seven cards to his name this term.

Michael Oliver started the season slowly but has found his groove since the turn of the year, averaging 4.4 cards per game across all competitions in 2026, so let's hope he continues in the same vain this weekend.

Score prediction: Fulham 1-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Odds correct at 15:15 BST (23/04/26)

More from Sporting Life

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.