Could Ollie Watkins and Matt Targett make England's Euros squad?
Could Ollie Watkins and Matt Targett make England's Euros squad?

Premier League analysis: Could Aston Vill's Ollie Watkins and Matt Targett make England's Euros squad?


It was another positive result for Aston Villa on Saturday as they beat Arsenal 1-0, meaning they have already matched their points tally from last season (35) after just 21 games.

For Arsenal, it's left them with just one win in their last five in all competitions and Mikel Arteta's side remain firmly in mid-table. Nine points now separate them from the top-four.

From Villa's England potential to Arsenal's frustrations, here are four big talking points to have come from the contest.

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Will England call up Watkins?

Ollie Watkins netted his tenth goal of the campaign just two minutes in to fire Villa to victory. Only nine players have double figures on their tally in the Premier League this season yet Watkins remains an outsider for England contention.

His 16/1 price with Sky Bet HALVED to 8/1 during the second-half of the game. That still looks too big when we consider his goals return on his debut season in England's top-flight. When we also factor in his age (25) and future potential, it may tempt Gareth Southgate into including Watkins with his slight preference to younger players.

It also depends on the way Southgate wants to structure the squad. Let's assume he wants three striking options, with Marcus Rashford (1/16) played out wide. Unless injury prevents it, Harry Kane (1/16) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (1/2) are pretty nailed on to feature in the summer.

Danny Ings sits on seven goals but is a much shorter 4/1, while Tammy Abraham remains at 5/2 and he may find himself dropped in favour of Timo Werner playing the striker role for Chelsea. If Villa do end up finishing in the top-seven, and Watkins continues in his current form, that 8/1 price will continue to shorten as the tournament approaches.


Could Targett make Euros squad?

Matt Targett's statistics against Arsenal

While Watkins is scoring goals at one end, at the other Villa have seen their left side of the defence controlled by consistently good performances from Matt Targett.

It may seem like this piece is being used to push as many Villa players into the England squad as possible but Saturday was another reminder for how Targett can fill a problem position for the Three Lions. With an abundance of right-backs to choose from, often ending in all of them being involved, left-back has sometimes become a stop-gap area.

Targett's five successful tackles was the second-highest on the pitch (only Marvelous Nakamba had more) while he finished the game third for aerial duels won. Matty Cash on the opposite flank was the only Villa player with more passes and he saw the second-most blocks throughout the 90 minutes.

England have Ben Chilwell (1/5) at left-back, but what if Marcos Alonso keeps the spot at Chelsea? And while Bukayo Saka (evens) has been used in that position, and can play the left-back role well, do England limit his attacking capabilities by placing him in defence when he's played the large majority of the season on the wings for Arsenal?

There is an argument that Targett (a huge 28/1) won't be as strong in attack but it does give England another option. It's a price that suggests the Three Lions have plenty of options to go at but that's just not the case. With World Cup qualifiers coming up against poor opposition in San Marino and Albania, Southgate may give him a chance.

Luke Shaw (8/11) has enjoyed an upturn in form at Manchester United, but a top-end Villa finish should see the Villa man's odds drop and history has shown how the England boss is willing to give others a chance to impress. Targett can only benefit.


Rob Holding will get a goal

Arsenal defender Rob Holding

Rob Holding was an unsuccessful 25/1 anytime goalscorer tip in the game, but that doesn't mean he should be completely disregarded in future. In fact, his attacking showings at Villa Park give hope to the fact that a goal will come soon for the defender.

Our preview highlighted how had 12 shots in 19 appearances before the trip to Villa. This game brought another two shots with a combined expected goals rating of 0.16 for the game. That moves his season xG figure up to 1.47 but he is yet to score - that may change soon.

His xG rating of 0.16 came after positive recent showings with efforts at 0.10 (v Southampton) and 0.14 (v Crystal Palace) in previous weeks. Arsenal's set-pieces have been mixed, but they are capable of delivering a ball onto the right spot.

Those big goalscorer odds will remain as Arsenal welcome Leeds next. This is a Leeds side with the worst record for goals conceded from set-pieces (11) in the Premier League - Holding will provide a great value goalscorer option in that contest.


Is Nicolas Pepe living up to his price tag?

Nicolas Pepe and John McGinn battle for the ball

The spotlight is always on a big-money signings, but the pressure is increased for Nicolas Pepe at a club who typically haven't spent large amounts in comparison with the rest of the 'big-six' in recent years. His performances have failed to even move within touching distance of his £72million price tag.

His form has picked up in recent weeks but there was little to shout about in defeat at Villa Park. The winger had the highest number of shots from any Arsenal player (3) but they all failed to hit the target. Pepe also saw six 'possession losses' across the 90 minutes - no player on the pitch had more.

Only one of Pepe's five attempted dribbles was successful and the two times he was dispossessed was another match-leading statistic.

There has been the added pressure, and that has been ramped up with the positive recent performances, but he offered little for the Gunners in defeat.


Odds correct at 1430 GMT (06/02/21)

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