Liam Kelly picks out a data point for each team left in Euro 2020 which either encapsulates their tournament so far, or is of note heading into the knockout rounds.
Round of 16 fixtures
England
Let's start with a positive. England have yet to concede a goal while topping the group, limiting their three opponents to an average of 0.58 xGA per game.
However, that may just be a bi-product of the cautious approach Gareth Southgate has decided to apply in this tournament thus far, which is evident in the data.
England have scored twice from 22 shots totaling 4.3 xG, often looking to slow the game down when in possession. Improvement is needed if the Three Lions are to challenge for Euro 2020, let alone beat Germany in the round of 16.
Germany
Word of Die Mannschaft's demise might by a little premature. Sure, they haven't lived up to high expectations, but Germany's underlying numbers don't scream 'team in trouble'.
In fact, Germany posted the best expected goal difference of any team in Group F (+2.7 xGD). France did seem happy to allow the Germans to dictate after taking the lead, but Joachim Löw's side blew away Portugal in their second fixture, dismantling a top team with relative ease (xG: POR 1.59 - 2.32 GER).
Game state rather dictated Germany's dominance over Hungary in a final game thriller. It was dominance, though, as Hungary scored from each of their two big chances in Munich. It would be dangerous to completely dismiss Germany at this point.
Sweden
In what is a rarity for a Sweden side, especially one that is advancing to the knockout stages of a major tournament, a lack of defensive solidity is of concern heading into the round of 16.
Janne Andersson’s men held a substandard Slovakia team to 0.68 xG in a 2-0 win but, despite topping the group, allowed 2.89 and 2.25 xG against Spain and Poland respectively.
Ukraine
Ukraine were rather fortunate to end up in the knockout stages, a sole win against Euro 2020 minnows North Macedonia was enough to secure their place on goal difference.
Andriy Shevchenko's side have managed to score goals during the tournament, boasting some terrific talent in forward areas, but troublesome numbers at the back are a point of interest, allowing 5.52 xGA in their three group matches.
Only Wales and upcoming opponents Sweden conceded more xG of the teams that qualified for the last 16, so Sweden-Ukraine could be an unexpected, goal-laden cracker to finish off the round.
Already played round of 16 tie
Wales
Wales need to be applauded for another excellent tournament showing, advancing from a tough group in second place. Defence is a worry heading into the knockout stages, though.
Robert Page's side have conceded two goals despite allowing chances totalling 6.51 expected goals against (xGA), a process that will see them punished if it continues.
The undoubted quality Wales possess going forward might be enough cover defensive frailties, but it will be extremely difficult.
Denmark
Denmark have performed outstandingly at Euro 2020 given the circumstances. Everyone's second favourite team secured a wholly justified place in the last 16 with an inspired 4-1 victory over Russia, putting in another impressive attacking display.
Often thought of as a pragmatic side, The Danes have displayed another side to their game, even without the significant amount of creativity Christian Eriksen brings, averaging 2.20 expected goals for (xGF) per game.
A place in the knockout rounds was no more than Denmark deserved, and will prove to be a tough out at any stage.
Italy
Italy have perhaps been the most impressive team in the group stages, deservedly winning all three matches to nil based on underlying numbers.
Roberto Mancini’s side have allowed just 12 shots equating to 1.36 xGA across their Group A fixtures, an indication of just how dominant the Italians have been.
They’ve performed to an excellent level at the other end, too, averaging 2.26 xGF per game. A potent mix heading into the last 16.
Austria
Austria are a tough team to analyse after the group stages. A routine - but expected - win in their opener against North Macedonia was followed by a lamentable 2-0 defeat in the Netherlands, with star player David Alaba wasted as the spare man in a back three.
Starting in a more advanced role on Austria’s left brought about a huge amount of improvement from the team in a 1-0 win over Ukraine last time out, looking far more threatening in attack while holding their opponents to just 0.36 xG.
It will be interesting to see if Franco Foda reverts back to a negative approach against Italy in the round of 16.
Netherlands
Talk of weakness in the Dutch defence may be a little overblown given how they performed in Group C, but it’s their underlying numbers going forward that are of serious interest entering the knockout rounds.
The Netherlands have created an astonishing 13 non-penalty big chances in three matches en route to recording an average of 3.0 xGF per game — the second highest of any team in the competition (Spain 3.23).
Granted, Frank de Boer’s side had a relatively easy time of it in a weak group, but it’s hard not to be impressed with their attacking process.
Czech Republic
Jaroslav Silhavy’s side appear to be a very solid unit, earning qualification before kicking a ball in their third group game.
Czech Republic’s attacking numbers are fairly mediocre, though, averaging 1.11 xGF per game across their three matches. I guess Patrik Schick scoring from over 50 yards out helps on that front!
Belgium
Maximum points from Group B means Belgium have, perhaps correctly, escaped any real denunciation, but there is some cause for concern when we look at their data.
In what was a weak group, Belgium overperformed in both attack and defence, scoring seven goals from 4.36 xGF and conceding just one from chances equating to 2.64 xGA.
Although those numbers aren't spectacular, Axel Witsel, Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard logged valuable minutes as we enter the latter stages of the tournament. A keen interest should be taken in their round of 16 tie with reigning champions Portugal.
Portugal
Portugal's European Championship defence has been about one man thus far — record-breaker Cristiano Ronaldo.
Three of his five Euro 2020 goals have come from the spot, predictably eliciting the 'Penaldo' references from social media trolls, but the Portuguese superstar would be close to the top of the xG leaderboards even without the spot-kicks (2.18 non-penalty xG).
After finishing third in Group F, their match-up with Belgium in the round of 16 should be a cracker.
Croatia
Moments of magic from an aging core were the main reason behind Croatia's second place finish in Group D, and were fortunate to do so based on underlying numbers.
Despite gaining four points, they lost the xG battle in each of their fixtures against England, Czech Republic and Scotland, posting a fairly poor -2.18 expected goal difference (xGD).
As a result, Croatia shouldn't be feared in this competition.
Spain
Looking purely at Infogol’s xG data, Spain are performing like one of the better teams in the tournament, creating plenty of scoring opportunities and limiting opponents to very little.
However, Luis Enrique’s side had been incredibly wasteful in front of goal prior to their five-goal explosion against Slovakia, scoring only two times from a total of 6.07 xG.
If Spain have got their act together up top, they will be a force in the knockout stages.
France
Admittedly, Group F was correctly labelled the 'group of death', but more was expected of the pre-tournament — and current — favourites despite winning the group.
France's standout data point has got to be their +0.4 expected goal difference (xGD). Only Croatia, Wales and Sweden posted a lower xGD of the teams that made the round of 16.
At the same time, it's difficult to argue against their favouritism for Euro 2020. Didier Deschamps' side look like they have two to three gears to move through still.
Switzerland
Nothing in particular sticks out that we didn’t already know pre-tournament when it comes to Switzerland.
They failed to test an Italian team that are in a different league, recording just 0.25 xG in Rome, but when facing nations of a similar or inferior level, the Swiss look competitive, comfortably creating the better chances against both Wales and Turkey.
Unfortunately for them, Switzerland face France in the next round, the tournament favourites.
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