The Champions League is at the quarter final stage, and after landing 'to qualify' tips at 7/4 and 3/1, Jake Osgathorpe returns with selections for this round.
Using Infogol's xG model and probabilities, this article will aim to provide a verdict for who will progress to the quarter finals, but also if there are any value bets based on the prices available.
- 'To qualify odds' are in brackets next to team names and via Sky Bet
Champion League betting tips: Quarter final
2pts Chelsea to qualify at evens (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Villarreal to qualify at 13/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Benfica (13/2) v Liverpool (1/14)
- First leg - Tuesday, April 5
- Second leg - Wednesday, April 13
Liverpool couldn't have asked for a better draw here, as without question Benfica were the side all of the other seven teams would have wanted.
That is no slight on the Portuguese side, who have some very talented players, but they are a cut below every other team left in this competition.
Benfica edged out Ajax 3-2 on aggregate thanks to a solid defensive display in the second leg, but that would appear to have been a one off when we look at the rest of their matches in this competition.
In the group stage they allowed 1.97 xGA per game, conceding 3.18 and 4.44 in two games against Bayern Munich - a team Liverpool are on par with, or maybe better than.
That doesn't bode well then, with the Reds one of, if not the, best attacking team in Europe.
While the narrative was that Jurgen Klopp's side were fortunate to get past Inter Milan, the reality was they were in second gear and were still extremely dominant.
The Reds won the two-legged xG battle 3.27 - 0.82, limiting the Italian champions to very little by way of chances, and Benfica aren't at Inter's level.
Portuguese sides haven't fared well against the elite teams this season, or in seasons past. This term, Bayern beat Benfica 9-2 over two games, Man City thrashed Sporting 5-0 in Lisbon and Liverpool beat Porto 7-1 over two games in the group stage.
The Reds are fully expected to progress, with the Infogol model giving them a whopping 90.0% chance of doing so, but at the prices, there is no value to be had, so its a NO BET in this one.
Selection - No bet
Manchester City (2/7) v Atletico Madrid (5/2)
- First leg - Tuesday, April 5
- Second leg - Wednesday, April 13
What an eye-catching tie this is, and what a contrast in styles we should see.
Manchester United's conquerors Atletico Madrid must face the better team in Manchester next, and they face a real uphill battle.
City are fully expected to progress (78.9% according to the Infogol model), but Atletico will make life difficult.
Pep Guardiola's side made light work of Sporting Lisbon in the last round, easing to a 5-0 win in Portugal before drawing 0-0 home in the second, with their defensive process incredibly eye-catching.
In the Champions League this season they have allowed just 0.78 xGA per game, and that featured matches against PSG and RB Leipzig.
Atletico have shown more of an attacking threat this season, but not in Europe.
Diego Simeone's side deservedly progressed past Manchester United (2 leg xG: ATM 2.02 - 1.54 MUN), but struggled to deal with Liverpool (xG: LIV 3.67 - 0.28 ATM) - a team at Manchester City's level.
Los Colchoneros have averaged 1.46 xGF and 1.43 xGA per game in the UCL, and that level of process won't be anywhere near good enough to beat this Manchester City team over two legs.
The English side will likely make Atletico look ordinary, but there is no value in backing them to do so. Another NO BET in another lop-sided tie.
Selection - No bet
Villarreal (6/1) v Bayern Munich (1/12)
- First leg - Wednesday, April 6
- Second leg - Tuesday, April 12
The bookies have this tie as one-sided as the Benfica-Liverpool one, but that's not how I or the Infogol model see it.
Villarreal delivered the goods for us in the last of these previews, thrashing Juventus 4-1 on aggregate thanks to a 3-0 win in Turin.
Unai Emery has an incredible record in European knockout games, and the Europa League champions shouldn't be underestimated, even against Bayern Munich.
The Yellow Submarine were unfortunate not to top their group ahead of Manchester United, and continued their strong attacking record in the last 16, with their xGF per game in the UCL now reading 2.10 xGF per game.
That could pose a real problem for Bayern Munich, who have shown major vulnerabilities defensively of late under Julian Nagelsmann.
They were 8-2 aggregate winners over Salzburg, but did concede a fair few decent chances, and across their last seven Bundesliga games (at the time of writing) have allowed a huge 1.61 xGA per game.
It's very un-Bayern like to be so vulnerable at the back, but is something that is happening regularly as they bid to play all-out-attack football.
They have been successful at that, averaging 2.88 xGF per game over their last seven league games and 2.85 in their eight Champions League matches, so Bayern will create chances over the two legs.
Villarreal's attacking process suggests they can cause major issues for the German side, so with the bookies giving the Yellow Submarine a 13.3% (13/2) chance and the Infogol model making them nearly twice as likely to progress (22.9%), backing VILLARREAL TO QUALIFY is a value play.
The Spaniards are being underestimated and are worth siding with to small stakes.
Selection - Villarreal to qualify at 13/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Chelsea (Evs) v Real Madrid (8/11)
- First leg - Wednesday, April 6
- Second leg - Tuesday, April 12
Of all the ties, this one looks the most evenly matched, and that's the way the bookies see things too.
The books can't decide who should be favourite either, with some making Chelsea favs and some making Real Madrid favs.
If you have a strong opinion on either team, you'll be able to find a price and a bet to suit, and that's what I will be doing here.
Yes, Real Madrid are the La Liga leaders, running away with things in Spain, but Chelsea and Thomas Tuchel are one of the best teams in knockout competitions.
Since Tuchel's arrival, the Blues have won the Champions League, reached last season's FA Cup final and this season's Carabao Cup final as well as this season's FA Cup semi final.
They thrive in knockout football, mainly because of their manager's tactical genius.
Real Madrid can maybe say that their manager is of the same ilk, but let's not forget what the Blues did to this Madrid team last season over two legs (2 leg xG: CHE 5.54 - 1.47 RMA).
Los Blancos's first choice XI hasn't changed too much since those meetings, and the way in which PSG were in control in the last round before shooting themselves in the foot leads me to believe that a more organised Chelsea can cruise past the Madrid side.
Up until PSG's goalkeeper gifted Madrid a lifeline, Real had generated just 0.45 xG in 150 minutes of football. Only when they got that goal and were back in the tie did they look dangerous.
Chelsea won't make that same mistake, with their xG average of 1.98 xGF and 0.92 xGA per game in the UCL a solid return, and the Blues are looking more like themselves after a wobble around Christmas.
All in all, I would make the Blues favourites to progress in this tie, and the Infogol model makes them a 4/5 shot (56.1%), so the even money available for CHELSEA TO QUALIFY should be snapped up.
Selection - Chelsea to qualify at evens (Sky Bet)
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