Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Over 27.5 Shots at 5/6 (bet365, Unibet, BetMGM)
A week seems like an absolute age in football nowadays.
VAR controversy in the Tottenham-Liverpool game have only served to elongate a week in which both the Reds and Brighton played in the Europa League, a more pressing thing to ponder when considering a bet for this match-up, where Jürgen Klopp's side beat Union SG, and Brighton completed a comeback to draw 2-2 with Marseille.
There's no doubt that Thursday outings affect these Sunday Premier League games, but we can still expect a rather similar approach from both teams at this point.
Liverpool were, of course, robbed of a perfectly good goal against Spurs, but they still displayed the traits of a team that are struggling with opposition from a defensive perspective, while looking typically dangerous going forward.
Goals are often on the cards when Brighton play, too. Their seven league games have produced a total of 33 goals this season (19 for, 14 against), looking a little out of form for the first time in a long time under Roberto De Zerbi.
What are the best bets?
Goals may be on the cards on the cards at the Amex Stadium but the pick'em prices on a over/under line of 3.5 look a little off. Still, I wouldn't like to be on the wrong side of a high-scoring affair here.
Instead, I think the 5/6 available about OVER 27.5 SHOTS in the match is a better way to attack the game from a punting perspective.
We can enter it fairly confident that both teams will look to get forward, and that both sides have defensive vulnerabilities that can be taken advantage of.
Liverpool's matches average over 30 shots per game this season, while games involving Brighton average over 29 shots per game. With that in mind, the line for shots at various bookmakers looks a bit low.
BuildABet @ 10/1
- Tariq Lamptey to be carded
- 22+ total match fouls
- 10+ corners
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
A possibly rusty Tariq Lamptey will be tasked with keeping Mo Salah quiet and can easily find himself in the book having to deputise for Pervis Estupiñán.
Indeed, there might be plenty of fouls in what is likely to be an end-to-end game. If that's the case, adding 10+ corners to a BuildABet makes sense.
Team news
Tariq Lamptey is expected to replace injured Brighton left-back Pervis Estupiñán. He has joined Julio Enciso, Adam Lallana, James Milner and Jakub Moder on the sidelines.
Liverpool's Curtis Jones and Diogo Jota are both suspended after receiving red red cards against Tottenham last weekend.
Cody Gakpo picked up a knee issue in the 2-1 defeat to Spurs and joins Thiago Alcantara, Caoimhin Kelleher and Stefan Bajcetic as absentees.
Predicted line-ups
Brighton: Verbruggen; Veltman, Webster, Dunk, Lamptey; Groß, Gilmour; March, Welbeck, Mitoma, Ferguson.
Liverpool: Alisson; Gomez, Matip, Van Dijk, Robertson; Szoboszlai, Mac Allister, Gravenberch; Salah, Díaz, Núñez.
Match facts
- Liverpool won their first six Premier League matches against Brighton across the 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons. In the last three seasons, however, the Reds have just one league win against the Seagulls (D3 L2).
- Brighton have won five of their seven Premier League games this season (L2); they did, however, lose 6-1 at Aston Villa last time out (the first time they’d conceded 6+ goals in a league game since April 2012 vs West Ham). The Seagulls haven’t lost back-to-back Premier League games since October last season (v Tottenham and Brentford).
- Liverpool’s 17 game unbeaten run in the Premier League came to an end last weekend against Tottenham. The last time they lost back-to-back matches in the competition was their two games prior to that 17-game unbeaten streak (v Bournemouth and Manchester City).
- Brighton’s seven Premier League games this season have produced 33 goals (F19 A14). Only Manchester United in 2001-02 (35), Arsenal in 2009-10 (34) and Manchester City in 2019-20 (34) have seen more goals in their opening seven games to a Premier League season.
- Liverpool have had four players sent off in the Premier League this season; it’s the first time in the competition’s history that a side has been given four reds in their opening seven games of a campaign. Indeed, Liverpool’s four red cards in their last six Premier League games are as many as in their previous 178 matches combined.
- Brighton have both scored and conceded in each of their last 11 Premier League games since a 3-0 victory at Arsenal in May. During this period, either Brighton (6 times) or their opponents (3 times) have scored 3+ goals in nine of those matches.
- Solly March has either scored (2) or assisted (3) five of Brighton’s last eight Premier League goals against Liverpool, netting a brace and setting up a Danny Welbeck goal in this exact fixture last season. His five goal involvements against the Reds are his most against an opponent in the competition.
- Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has only been involved in more Premier League goals against Man Utd (14) and West Ham (13) than he has against Brighton (6 goals, 6 assists in 12 apps), with seven of these coming in his six appearances at the Amex Stadium. Overall, Salah has been involved in 17 goals in his 15 trips to the south coast in the top-flight (v Brighton, Bournemouth and Southampton), scoring 11 and assisting six.
- Liverpool’s Alexis Mac Allister made 98 Premier League appearances for Brighton scoring 16 goals. He could become just the second player to score both for and against the Seagulls in the competition, after Dan Burn.
Odds correct 1700 BST (06/10/23)
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