Football betting tips: Carabao Cup
1pt Newcastle vs Bradford - Draw in 90 minutes at 9/1 (19:45) (General)
2pts Bradford +3 handicap at 5/6 (19:45) (General)
0.5pt Bradford to win in 90 minutes at 22/1 (19:45) (General)
0.5pt Ryan Croasdale to be carded in Port Vale vs Arsenal (20:00) at 10/3 (William Hill)
Newcastle vs Bradford
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 19:45 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
Joe Townsend
Chaotic half-hour against Liverpool aside - driven by a sense of injustice over Anthony Gordon's first-half red card and Alexander Isak's ongoing transfer saga - Newcastle have struggled badly in attack this season.
Those two goals with 10 men in 31 second-half minutes is equal to the number of goals they have managed across their five other fixtures, drawing 0-0 on three occasions already.
Their struggles are backed up by expected goals data, with the Magpies creating an average of just 0.96 xG per game.
BRADFORD, a club with plenty of history when it comes to cup shocks, will go to St James' full of belief having taken League One by storm following promotion, sitting top with 20 points after nine games.
The fact they are averaging the second-lowest possession (42%) in the third tier means they are well suited to setting up and counter attacking against higher-division opposition, with it no surprise they have already won at Championship clubs Blackburn and Stoke to reach this stage.
At some enormous prices I'm prepared to back Graham Alexander's men to capitalise on the Carabao Cup holders' slow start.
Several bookmakers are brave enough to offer 22/1 that BRADFORD WIN IN 90 MINUTES and although it would be great to root for them to qualify at 10/1, the much more sensible angle is to also back the 9/1 about THE DRAW, taking the lottery of a penalty shootout out of things.
It is a far better way to go about things than the comparatively stingy 5/1 on offer for the double chance.
I may be getting carried away, but BRADFORD +3 HANDICAP at 5/6 looks worth taking too.
It pays out so long as the Bantams lose by two goals or fewer. Given Newcastle's struggles in front of goal it feels very, very possible.
Port Vale vs Arsenal
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
I am a little bit conflicted here because, on one hand, cards aren’t usually rife in the Carabao Cup. On the other hand, it is rare you get the opportunity to back League One players to be booked and considering the gulf in quality, it is hard to resist some of the hosts' inflated prices.
RYAN CROASDALE is the standout candidate TO BE CARDED. He picked up nine in League Two last season and has a cards per 90 average of 0.20 across the last three seasons.
At 10/3, you could argue his price is too short on Wednesday, however, some firms have Croasdale as short as 2/1, I think it is worth a punt.
Odds correct at 1515 BST (23/09/25)
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