Premier League betting tips: Aston Villa v Tottenham best bets and preview
Bidding to add to a healthy profit in March, Michael Beardmore analyses Jose Mourinho’s latest mini-crisis to provide best bets as Tottenham visit Aston Villa in the Premier League.
Football betting tips: Aston Villa v Tottenham
1pt A sending-off in the match at 9/2 (General)
1pt Giovani Lo Celso to be shown a card at 3/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pt Ollie Watkins to be shown a card at 7/1 (Unibet)
There’s no sugar-coating the fact – and, to his credit, Jose Mourinho didn’t attempt to – that Tottenham were outplayed, outfought and out-manoeuvred in their jaw-dropping Europa League exit to Dinamo Zagreb.
“Spurs-y” is a cliched phrase now but when you give up a 2-0 first-leg lead against a side that are hardly among Europe’s leading lights, it’s hard to argue Tottenham deserve anything other than the mass criticism that’s come their way.
Indeed, much of it has come from within, with Mourinho and skipper Hugo Lloris both absolutely scathing in their assessments of Spurs’ efforts in Croatia – and it will be interesting to see what type of reaction that provokes at Villa Park on Sunday evening.
More Mike Dean/VAR drama on the way?
Whatever happens, Tottenham will be without two of their most creative players – Son Heung-min and Erik Lamela who began Spurs’ ‘weekus horribilis’ by getting injured and sent off respectively in the north London derby at Arsenal last Sunday.
If this was the Aston Villa of a few weeks back, I would be highly recommending heavy stakes on the hosts’ heaping more misery on sorry Spurs but Dean Smith’s have lost their mojo a bit without the talismanic Jack Grealish to call on.
Tottenham might produce a passionate performance in response to the stick hurled their way but they might throw one in again – it’s tough to tell and Villa’s inconsistencies don’t help us either.
So I think the way forward in this game is in the card markets – Tottenham might have a rocket up their proverbial for this one and guess who is donning the whistle? Everybody's pal Mike Dean.
Good old Mike seems drawn to a VAR controversy like a moth to a flame and he has dished out seven red cards in just 18 matches this season: three more than any other official.
He’s averaging just under four cards of any colour per game and with Spurs surely bristling, a SENDING-OFF IN THE MATCH looks nicely priced at 9/2 generally – it’s bigger than it should be given Dean has issued a red card every 2.5 games.
Who will be shown a card in Villa v Tottenham?
One of the few Spurs players to have come out with credit from the midweek debacle was substitute Giovani Lo Celso, making his return after three months out injured.
Lo Celso looked bright upon his introduction, going close to a goal himself and setting up a couple of other chances – with an hour under his belt, he could be primed for a start given Mourinho will surely rejig his XI.
The Argentinian, like his compatriot Lamela, however, is a bit of a hot-head – he has been booked in two of his four Premier League starts this season and picked up a third yellow as a sub.
With the bit between his teeth – and Dean in charge – I can see that tally increasing and LO CELSO TO BE SHOWN A CARD is solid value at 3/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair. It’s one, of course, to keep an eye on the teamsheets for but might also provide in-play value if he does start on the bench.
From a Villa perspective, they have a few players prone to a booking but I’m going to take a punt on one who hasn’t regularly entered the referees’ notebook.
Ollie Watkins has got away with 18 fouls in the past 10 games without a card but, revved up by his first England call-up and frustrated at the lack of chances falling his way with Grealish out, I reckon his luck might run out with Dean in charge.
WATKINS TO BE SHOWN A CARD is 7/1 with Unibet and that is worth a small play here.
Aston Villa v Tottenham best bets and score prediction
- A sending-off in the match at 9/2 (General)
- Giovani Lo Celso to be shown a card at 3/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
- Ollie Watkins to be shown a card at 7/1 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct 1800 GMT (19/03/21)
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