Jon Newcombe has put up winners at 16/1, 6/1 and 11/2 over the first three rounds of Six Nations matches, so don't miss his advice for the weekend action.
Six Nations betting tips: Round four
2pts Ireland to beat England at 5/6 (General)
2pts under 43.5pts match points in England v Ireland at 4/5 (Unibet)
SPORTING LIFE RAB: Ireland to win and under 43.5 points
England v Ireland
Kick-off time: Saturday, 1645 GMT
Venue: Twickenham
Where to watch: ITV
Best bet: Ireland to beat England
Key stats
- England have won four of their last five home games against Ireland in the Guinness Six Nations, a 24-15 defeat in 2018 the exception in this run which started in 2012.
- Ireland are the only side that England have a losing record against in the Guinness Six Nations, wining just 45% of their meetings in the Championship (W10, L12), since 2010 though honours are even with both sides picking up six wins apiece in that time.
- None of the previous 22 Six Nations clashes between England and Ireland have seen either side overturn a half-time deficit to record a victory; the last time this happened in this fixture at all was in 1996
- In a run dating back to 2012, England have won 22 of their last 25 Six Nations matches at home (D1, L2); in that time, Scotland (W1, D1) and Ireland (W1, 2018) are the only sides to come away from Twickenham with anything but a defeat.
- Ireland’s average of 2.9 points per visit to the opposition 22 is the best of any side in the Championship this year.
- Ireland are the only side yet to lose a scrum on their own feed in the 2022 Guinness Six Nations, winning all 19 of their scrums so far; they have also stolen more opposition lineouts (7) than any other side
- Ireland’s average attacking ruck speed of 2.9s is the quickest of any side in the 2022 Six Nations
- Marcus Smith is the leading points scorer in the 2022 Six Nations on 48 points
For once, Eddie Jones wasn’t spinning everyone a yarn when he made out that Ireland were favourites in his pre-match press conference.
According to the bookies there isn’t much in it, which may have more to do with Twickenham’s fortress-like reputation than the respective merits of the two teams.
For us, there are a lot more positives to the IRELAND line-up than the one put forward by England.
You only have to look at the players that Andy Farrell has opted to leave in reserve on the bench: Iain Henderson, Conor Murray and Robbie Henshaw would walk into most Test starting XVs.
Our line up for a Saturday showdown in London! ✊#TeamOfUs | #ENGvIRE pic.twitter.com/A3DbiwZ904
— Irish Rugby (@IrishRugby) March 10, 2022
So strong are Ireland that they can afford to lose Andrew Porter to injury and bring in someone of the calibre of Cian Healy at loose-head. This will be Healy’s 16th match against England, equalling Rory Best’s Ireland record.
Ireland’s scrum will be just as imposing for having Healy in there, and that is where the platform for victory will be laid.
Ireland tick so many boxes for punters angling towards an away win.
Their set-piece solidity is matched by the slickness of their attacking play. A dozen different players have contributed to their overall tally of 16 tries – the best in the Championship. That is twice as many as England who have been over-reliant on Marcus Smith to make things happen.
Ireland are well-disciplined in terms of the number of penalties they concede (25 compared to England’s 35) and in keeping all 15 men on the park: Ireland have gone eight consecutive matches without conceding a yellow card, dating back to the win over England in last year’s Championship
Jones still seems at a loss what his best team is and what the best combinations are, while his opposite number Farrell appears to be in no doubt about the players he considers will do a job for Ireland at the Rugby World Cup in 18 months' time.
Ireland look set to enter the final weekend not only the higher ranked of these two teams but the one still with title aspirations and they can win a relatively low-scoring game, with UNDER 43.5 POINTS looking a solid option alongside a win for the visitors.
Wales v France
3pts France-France HT/FT at 4/6 (Betfred)
1pt Antoine Dupont first try-scorer at 11/1 (General)
0.5pt France to beat Wales to nil at 50/1 (Sky Bet)
Kick-off time: Friday, 2000 GMT
Venue: Principality Stadium
Where to watch: BBC
Best bet: France half-time/full-time
Key stats
- France are the only team capable of winning a Grand Slam in 2022 after beating Italy (37-10), Ireland (30-24) and Scotland (36-17)
- Wales beat Scotland 20-17 in round two, sandwiched between defeats away to Ireland (29-7) and England (23-19)
- France recorded a 27-23 victory on their last trip to Cardiff in the Guinness Six Nations (2020), their first win in the Welsh capital in the Championship
- Wales have won 10 of their last 11 matches at the Principality Stadium in the Six Nations (L1), however the only side to beat them during that run was Les Bleus
- France have won their last six Test matches, their best run since 2006
- France have trailed at half-time in just one of their last 31 Test matches, going into the break ahead on 27 occasions and level three times
- France have averaged 12.7 entries into the opposition 22 per game in the 2022 Six Nations so far, more than any other side, averaging 2.4 points per entry; Les Bleus have also conceded the fewest 22 entries per game
- Six of their last seven meetings have been decided by five or fewer points, with four by two or less
- France can equal their highest ever world ranking of second if they beat Wales by more than 15 points
Wales away would normally rank as one of France’s toughest fixtures, with or without the added pressure of a long overdue Grand Slam being within touching distance of Les Bleus.
But this year it feels different. Yes, the return of Taulupe Faletau and Josh Navidi will boost the Wales back row but physically, it is hard to see the home team matching the power of the French pack.
Given a solid platform to play from, ANTOINE DUPONT has every chance of impressing as much as he did on his last visit to Cardiff when he starred for Toulouse against Wales’ capital region on the pitch adjacent to the Principality Stadium in the Heineken Championship Cup.
It is something about the Welsh that seems to bring the best out of the World Rugby Player of the Year, with the livewire scrum-half darting over for three tries in the last two meetings. Dupont is 11/1 to get his side off to a flying start with the first try of the match and worth a bet at double-figure odds.
Failure to get points on the board in the first half of matches is becoming a theme for Wales; it happened in the opening round defeat to Ireland in Dublin and again in the loss to England at Twickenham a fortnight ago, and we fully expect in-form FRANCE to be in command of the scoreboard from the off.
The home advantage that Wales have tended to enjoy in the Six Nations might not be such a factor here, as it is estimated that 10,000 seats remain unsold. Wales need every 16th man, woman and child they can get but with swathes of empty seats around the Principality Stadium, it might not be the usual cauldron-like atmosphere that we’ve come to expect from night games in Cardiff.
With France defensively solid and disciplined – they’ve yet to concede a yellow card – and Wales found wanting in attack for much of this Six Nations, it might not be too remiss to have a small, speculative punt on FRANCE KEEPING WALES SCORELESS for the entire match, not just 40 minutes (50/1, Sky Bet).
Italy v Scotland
1pt 3+ tries in each half of Italy v Scotland at evens (Paddy Power)
1pt Kyle Steyn and Stuart Hogg to both score a try at 5/2 (Paddy Power)
Kick-off time: Saturday, 1415 GMT
Venue: Stadio Olimpico
Where to watch: ITV
Best bet: Stuart Hogg and Kyle Steyn both to score
Key stats
- Scotland have won each of their last six matches against Italy in the Guinness Six Nations, with their last defeat against the Azzurri coming in 2015 - Italy's last victory in the Championship
- Scotland have won their last four away games against Italy in the Six Nations, including a 17-0 victory on their last visit to Rome in 2020
- Italy have lost their last 35 games in the Six Nations, the longest losing run by any nation in Five/Six Nations history, with their 2015 victory at Murrayfield representing their most recent win in the Championship
- Scotland have won the last 10 meetings dating back to that 2015 loss; the closest Italy have come to victory in this run was a 29-27 loss in 2018
- Italy have failed to score a try in back-to-back Six Nations matches, the first time they’ve done this since 2009, when they failed to score in three consecutive matches in the Championship.
- Scotland have won 42 of their 43 lineouts in this year’s Six Nations, their 98% success rate is the best of any side in the Championship
- Scotland have slotted 91% of their kicks at goal in the Six Nations this year (10/11)
- Italy’s Michele Lamaro has made 59 tackles in this year’s Six Nations, at least 13 more than any other player
- Ali Price is set to win his 50th cap for Scotland; he’s scored just one try in his seven appearances against Italy
- Scotland captain Stuart Hogg will face Italy for the 13th time, one shy of Sean Lamont’s record, and needs one try to join Tim Visser with five against the Azzurri
Italy and Scotland normally play-off for the wooden spoon whenever they meet but this time around, the inaugural Cuttitta Cup is a prize that both will want.
The newly-crafted trophy is named in honour of former Italian international and former Scotland scrum coach, Massimo Cuttitta, who sadly died of Covid-19 in 2021.
With his brothers on hand to present the trophy to the winning captain and nine Italian Test centurions being honoured before kick-off, this could be an emotionally-charged day in Rome.
Normally Italy lose their heads when they let emotions get the better of them but we have a sneaky feeling that the Azzurri will use the occasion as a positive source of motivation.
Let’s face it, they need something to spur them into life.
A spirited first half against France in round one was followed by an ineffective performance against England, whilst the game against Ireland a fortnight ago was effectively over before it had properly started when the Azzurri went down to 13 men.
With Michele Lamaro fast developing into a captain they can be proud of, Italy never gave up the fight and if they can show the same sort of resilience as they did in Dublin and fire a few of their own shots in attack, then they might make it hard for Scotland to cover the 21-point handicap.
Scotland’s defence was so good under the watchful eye of Steve Tandy in 2021 but , for whatever reason, they have not been as watertight this time around, conceding an average of 24.33 points per game.
Italy will do well to push that average higher but doubling their meagre 16 points for the Championship in one match is certainly not beyond them, especially if they can get the lively Monty Ioane into the game more often.
That said, Scotland should still have far too much about them to suffer a shock defeat. Matt Fagerson – Scotland’s man-of-the-match in the Calcutta Cup win against England – and last year’s Player of the Championship, Hamish Watson, are both back to fortify the back row.
As for the backs, it will be special occasion for scrum-half Ali Price, who wins his 50th cap. Chances are that Price won’t mark his half century with a try, as he has only managed one before in seven appearances against Italy.
Instead, we’ll be looking to captain STUART HOGG to deliver. After dropping the ball with the line at his mercy in the round three defeat against France, the full-back will be desperate to get over the whitewash.
In every Six Nations he has played in since his first campaign in 2012, Hogg has scored at least one try. He can be backed to break his duck this year at 13/10 with BoyleSports.
For those wanting slightly longer odds, there is merit in doubling him up with another member of the back-three and doing so with KYLE STEYN gives us a nice 5/2 chance for what should be an entertaining game, with 3+ TRIES IN EACH HALF the best bet.
Posted at 0915 GMT on 11/03/22
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