Rugby World Cup: Tony Calvin previews Saturday matches including Japan v Ireland
Tony Calvin makes Ireland a bet on the handicap when they face Japan, as our rugby union expert previews Saturday's World Cup action.
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Tonga v Argentina
The plan was to cover all the weekend matches in this piece but it will have to be Saturday only, as team news is all-important, and Sunday’s sides have been very slow to come through.
This tournament is proving tricky enough to call without knowing the starting XVs, as Uruguay’s stunning 30-27 defeat of Fiji on Wednesday underlined.
That result was second only to South Africa’s loss to Japan in the last World Cup in terms of rugby upsets, a fact backed up by the betting as over £416,000 was matched on Fiji at 1.02 and 1.03 alone, and it was another stark warning that you play weakened sides against the supposed minnows at your peril, as well as taking them too lightly in the match itself.
Samoa dodged a bullet, and the odd red card or two, against Russia earlier in the week as well, and it is clear that the lesser teams really have found a greater organisation and cohesion under tournament conditions.
Argentina are first up on Saturday morning and they have named a strong XV to take on Tonga, though many will focus on Benjamin Urdapilleta being selected at fly-half.
He hasn’t started for the Pumas since 2013 and is inexperienced at this level with just 13 caps, so he is the obvious target point for the Tongans.
In the final analysis, Argentina were probably unlucky not to beat France in their vital opener after turning around a 20-3 deficit.
They were surprisingly dominant at the scrum there and really took it to the French with their driving maul, too. Given the pack they have picked on Saturday, you would think they will look to keep it tight and do a similar job on the Tongans.
But you have to wonder what that defeat will have done for their mindset – their coach had to apologise for his comments about the refereeing in the immediate aftermath of the game (though he had a fair bit of justification there) – and the fact is that they have lost their last 10 internationals since beating Australia away last year.
Granted, their opposition has been two levels superior to Tonga – and they were unlucky not to beat the All Blacks as recently as July – and you can’t expect anything other than a comfortable win here.
However, they are rated between 27- and 29-point favourites for this match, and that looked punchy on first viewing. Though, as it happens, 29 points was the winning margin when these sides met at the last World Cup, Argentina overcoming an early onslaught (they conceded the first try) to win 45-16.
England played poorly and still beat Tonga 35-3 in their opener, and that will give Argentina confidence that they could take the opposition to the cleaners.
Remember, this is a Tonga side that lost 92-7 to New Zealand earlier in the month and 74-24 in Wales last season – as well as losing 41-7 to Japan in August – so the potential for a 30+ win is there.
I am just uncomfortable backing Argentina to give away such a start. You have to go back to November 2016 to find the last time they won by more than 27 points (they beat Japan 54-20), though they did ease to 45-point victories against Georgia and Namibia in the 2015 World Cup.
Instead I am in fact going to recommend a small-stakes investment on Tonga (who have made just four changes from their opener) with a 15-point start (10/11, BoyleSports and Hills) on the half-time handicap.
They trailed England 18-3 at the interval, and they were only 24-17 down at half-time in that 50-point drubbing by Wales last year, so let’s hope they can hold their own early.
Japan v Ireland
Ireland won 50-22 and 35-13 in Japan in 2017, and I think they are worth a decent bet to successfully concede a 20-point start at 10/11 (Skybet, bet365 and Hills).
I was pretty down on Ireland’s claims coming into this tournament but a hasty revision was needed after they dismantled Scotland 29-3 in their opener.
Granted, that victory has to be taken in the context of the Scots not turning up, but the intensity of old was there for Ireland, their hunger in defence as impressive as their forward power and clinical finishing before the rain came in the second half.
They have kept changes to a minimum here, and they are certainly not weakened by the return of the likes of Rob Kearney and Keith Earls, with Jack Carty getting his starting chance at 10 with Johnny Sexton’s injury problems resurfacing.
I thought Japan were over-rated coming into the tournament and that impression was reinforced by their opening performance, though Russia did put a better shine on that with their bold showing against Samoa.
Of course, they have some superb athletes, but it is surprising that they have benched their talisman Michael Leitch, with Amanaki Mafi coming in at eight. Mafi was some player in Super Rugby, with some hugely impressive attacking numbers, but his star has waned.
Whichever way I look at this game, I see Ireland winning by upwards of 20.
South Africa v Namibia
It is pretty much all change for South Africa in their match against Namibia, but I think they may just get away with it, don’t you?
In fact, I think they can cover the general 57-point handicap. The stadium has a retractable roof but apparently it hasn’t been in use for the last four years, so we are at the mercy of the weather (though the current forecast looks fine, albeit the humidity will always be a factor).
I am not sure about Schalk Brits playing number eight but the dynamic hooker has always fancied himself as a back-rower and his selection there tells you that the Boks will look to run the Namibians ragged.
I was gutted to see our top tournament tryscorer selection Cheslin Kolbe only on the bench for this match (hopefully he gets on for the best part of a half) but the starting wingers – and indeed any of his team-mates – should fill their boots.
On paper, Namibia did remarkably well in scoring 22 points in their opener, but Italy were woeful and still put 47 past them – they had 35 on the board before the 50-minute mark, after which they totally eased up – and the Boks are altogether more powerful across the park.
Obviously, they are playing a near second-string XV but they beat Argentina 24-18 in similar circumstances in the Rugby Championship, and Namibia are several rungs below that, even though they were plucky against Italy and actually beat Uruguay 30-28 in Montevideo in June.
I would normally baulk at betting sides to give away monster starts, but the South African bench, notably Kolbe and Cobus Reinach, could provide the whirlwind after the early storm.
Posted at 1450 BST on 26/09/19.
More Rugby World Cup content
- Rugby World Cup 2019 Hub Page
- Rugby World Cup: Tony Calvin's outright betting preview
- Rugby Union World Cup Guide - Fixtures, pools, history, odds and highlight video
- Rugby World Cup: Squads & team-by-team guide
- How the World Cup will be won
- VOTE: Who will win the World Cup
- QUIZ: Rugby World Cup
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