Autumn internationals: Free Betting tips for Ireland, England, Scotland and Wales
Gareth Jones provides previews the weekend's Autumn internationals including Ireland v New Zealand, England v Japan and Scotland v South Africa.
Week three of the Autumn Internationals deliver a clash between the best two sides in the world - Ireland and New Zealand - while Scotland have a huge chance for a rare win over South Africa, and Wales and England hand their fringe players the opportunity to shine.
For the week's full preview and talking points, click here. Below, I pick out the best bets.
Recommend bets
2pts successful drop goal in Ireland v NZ at 9/2
Ireland v New Zealand
Last week I called Argentina to win the race to 10 points at the Aviva Stadium, and I'll look at the same venue again this week, but this time for Ireland to do the job for us at 6/4 with Sky Bet.
History shows you can get to New Zealand early in games, as England demonstrated so well last week. Yes, that will put the All Blacks on high alert and they will be fired up to start better this time around.
However, Ireland have built their last three months around this one, the crowd will be demanding a fiery, quick start and that should drive the Irish forward.
In Ireland's only ever win over the Kiwis, that famous success in Chicago to years ago, they led 10-5 after 11 minutes, and 15-5 after 17. In 2013 their 24-22 home defeat to the world champions saw the Irish race into a 19-0 lead after 18 minutes, having scored two converted tries by the 10-minute mark.
Sky Bet also have a Request-at-Bet for a successful drop goal in the match at 9/2, and I think that's also worth a play.
We saw one apiece at Twickenham last week, and fly half Johnny Sexton will be itching to hit the target this week in the knowledge Ireland will have to keep the scoreboard ticking over.
I'm going for an Ireland win at 2/1 also but in terms of the best bets, side with Ireland to get off to a fast start once more and a drop goal to be scored.
England v Japan
England have made 11 changes against a Japan side that is confident and strong defensively. They scored five tries in their 69-31 defeat to New Zealand earlier this month and, remember, they drew 23-23 with France this time last year.
England's team is still good enough to avoid a shock defeat, but the numerous changes may help find some value in an otherwise one-sided market.
Eddie Jones says he wants to "smash" the Brave Blossoms, but as I predicted in my Week Three Autumn International Talking Points, the backline looks more magic wand than battering ram this week.
George Ford, Alex Lozowski, Jack Nowell are more about creativity and exciting running lines than smashing. The muscle will be added by Bath debutant Joe Cokanasiga and I expect him to be used off his wing plenty.
Cokanasiga as an anytime scorer at 1/3 is worth a look at despite the prohibitive odds - he should have his share of chances to make it a dream debut.
With all the English changes they could stutter in the first half, especially in a backline that are unaccustomed to playing together.
As good as they are, they may lack understanding and connections early on, which can result in slightly mistimed runs and pass, and thus a slightly misfiring attack at first.
While the odds have shortened since the teams were announced I think evens on the first-half handicap of Japan at +15 is worth a bet. Jamie Joseph's outfit 'only' trailed New Zealand by 19 at half time, and they can keep things tight enough to land the money.
Scotland v South Africa
In my preview piece I found it hard to call a winner for this one, especially when you consider they sit next to each other in the world rankings.
I believe South Africa are overall the better team and Scotland have always found their power and size too much to handle - having beaten the Springboks only twice in the professional era.
But Scotland at home are formidable to the point of unbeatable - they've lost just twice in two years at Murrayfield - and have such speed and skill now. They also possess more confidence and ruthlessness than I've seen from them for many a year.
South Africa are fading after a fine 2018, and recent, closely-fought matches against England and France have taken a lot out of them. I wonder if they will be focusing more on Wales next week, too, so I'm going for Scotland to win at 11/8.
Stuart Hogg lives for games like this - he is a big Test match animal - so he seems nicely priced at 12/1 to score the first try, as does last week's hat-trick hero Tommy Seymour at 11/1.
Wales v Tonga
I don't agree with Warren Gatland's 14 changes for this game because, as well as the effect it will have on them this week, a wonder how it will change their momentum for next week too.
This is still an exciting team, with plenty of talent and more than enough to see off a Tonga side who haven't played since June. It's also motivated by recording their longest winning streak since 2005 (eight games).
Leicester Tigers' Jonah Holmes makes his debut at full-back. He is an exciting, elusive runner, whose try record is impressive. He scored 10 tries in his first 11 appearances for the Tigers last season and was Yorkshire Carnegie's top try scorer the previous season to that.
Holmes is 21/20 for to score a try here and certainly worth a look.
Posted at 1030 GMT on 16/11/18.
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