Paul Higham has the pick of the NFL action this week, including a welcome return for the MVP and a bounce-back chance for Green Bay.
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans
The MVP is back! Patrick Mahomes returns after missing just two games with what looked a far more serious injury at the time – and that has been reflected in the points spread here with the Chiefs going from 3.5 to six-point favourites when his return was announced.
If Mahomes is at his best, that move simply isn’t enough, as the Chiefs proved to be more than a half-decent with veteran Matt Moore under centre as they maintained their place as the second-best aerial attack in the league, with a tough loss to the Packers and a solid win against the Vikings.
Kyle Allen led the Carolina Panthers to a ten-point win over Tennessee last week – and Mahomes is another level so that six-point deficit is well worth taking.
We’ve not even talked about the Chiefs defence, an often overlooked facet of this team but one that is getting better and is facing a team averaging 18.5 points a gamer. The Titans have one hope – that’s run the ball with Derrick Henry against the Chiefs’ 29th-ranked run defence.
Best Bet: Chiefs -6.5pts at Evens
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers
Green Bay need a response after last week’s puzzlingly poor loss at the Chargers, and in essence a home tilt against a team they’ve stuck 30 points on in five of the last six at the venue seems perfect – apart from one thing.
That one fly in the ointment comes in the form of Christian McCaffrey, who leads the league in scrimmage yards and touchdowns and is pushing his claims for the MVP award.
That’s not what you need when your defence has allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns and third-most rushing yards this season. McCaffrey tallied 136 yards and a touchdown when the Panthers beat the Packers last time, and he’ll be the main danger again.
Best bet: Packers -4 at Evens
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
The best of the NFC South hosts the worst of the NFC South with the sinking Falcons on a six-game losing run entering the Superdome for what looks a hopeless divisional clash.
Complacency, then, seems their only chance of catching out the Saints who won all five games missed by top QB Drew Brees with a thumb injury. There was a question about whether he should get his job back, but he responded with a 373-yard, three-touchdown game on his return.
New Orleans are getting healthier across the board, with star running back Alvin Kamara and tight end Jared Cook ready to return after a bye week.
Matt Ryan returning for the Falcons at quarterback will be a boost, but it’d be a huge upset if they got anywhere near the hosts, who are seemingly set for a big run at the Super Bowl this season.
The Falcons allow over 31 points a game and are 23rd defending the pass and 21st in stopping the run – they just aren’t good enough defensively to keep it close.
NFL Week Ten schedule
Sunday, November 10, 2019
- Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
- Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
- Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns
- Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
- Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
- New York Giants at New York Jets
- Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans
- Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
- Los Angeles Rams at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys
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