Ante-post betting round-up: What Happens Next?

Golf

Sweden's Alex Noren said winning the BMW PGA Championship felt like winning a major, and there's been money for him in both the US Open and Open Championship markets on the back of it.

Noren is up to a career-high eighth in the world following his fifth win since last July and rudimentary analysis of the numbers suggests he's still value for the big tournaments.

He's split in the rankings by Spaniards Sergio Garcia and Jon Rahm, who are both 25/1 for the US Open, whereas Noren can still be backed at 80/1 in a place (win only) and a general 66s.

Granted, Rahm looks every inch a superstar after another huge performance in Texas last week, while Garcia is of course a major champion, and they should be shorter than Noren.

But should the Wentworth winner be the same price as Paul Casey, who hasn't won for three years? Matt Kuchar? A woefully out-of-form Bubba Watson? Charl Schwartzel?

Absolutely not. 

The Open Championship market looks more accurate, with Noren at 50/1. It's still hard to understand why he'd be bit bigger than, say, 40/1 shot Thomas Pieters, and the same price as Tyrrell Hatton, but it's close.

Perhaps Noren will prove to be good at winning on the European Tour but not good enough for majors. However, markets place too much stock in youth when the reality is the last four major winners have all been 30-plus.

At 34, Noren is in his prime. He's winning at around 20% right now, which is phenomenal. And he's certainly worth considering for the next two majors, both played on courses which would appear to suit in some way. (Ben Coley)

Click here to bet on the US Open

Racing

Royal Ascot clues were everywhere on Saturday and Clive Cox’s excellence with sprinters was advertised yet again thanks to the performances of Harry Angel and Priceless at Haydock.

Harry Angel was superb in the Sandy Lane Stakes, making all and travelling with zest before scooting clear for a four-and-a-half length success over Second Thought, on a five-timer himself, albeit back on turf for just the second time in his career.

Cut across the board to 4/1 generally for the Commonwealth Cup, Harry Angel is a best of 9/2 at Betfair Sportsbook and that looks too big for a horse with such an obvious raw talent.

The Commonwealth Cup is shaping up to be one of the most eagerly-anticipated spectacles at Royal Ascot, yet again, despite its brief history, and in Caravaggio, Blue Point and Harry Angel we have three potentially exceptional sprinters set to do battle.

Caravaggio (11/10) is an understandable favourite given his juvenile form and his impressive reappearance at Naas, but Harry Angel has better recent form in the bag and the pair should be closer together in the betting. 

I’m finding it hard to split them, so there is only one bet at the prices.

Click here to bet on the Commonwealth Cup

Priceless, meanwhile, was cut to a top-price 16/1 (Coral) for the King’s Stand Stakes after seeing out her race really well in the Temple Stakes.

Fillies dominate the King’s Stand ante-post market with Acapulco, Lady Aurelia and Marsha taking the top three positions and now Priceless isn’t too far behind that trio.

However, Alpha Delphini, third in the Temple Stakes, should be considered as an each-way King’s Stand proposition at the general 33/1.

Bryan Smart’s sprinter came on plenty for his reappearance in the Palace House Stakes and was only beaten half-a-length and a neck in the run for the line.

They can’t go hard enough for him over five furlongs and a stiff track, like Ascot, will suit him perfectly. 

He has a course and distance win under his belt from his days as a handicapper and he hasn’t got much to find with the leading players on the bare form. Still improving at the age of six, like his half-brother Tangerine Trees, he’s underestimated at his current odds. (Ben Linfoot)

Football

Arsenal won the FA Cup for the third time in four years on Saturday and it's therefore something of a surprise that they're 8/1 fifth-favourites for another win next May with Sky Bet.

Yes, there's a possibility that there will be a new manager in place and a summer upheaval, with Alexis Sanchez among those sure to be targeted, but the Gunners' record in this competition suggests they'll be a factor regardless.

And while they did enjoy the luck of the draw with Preston, Sutton and Lincoln in the earlier rounds, they saw off Manchester City and Chelsea on neutral soil over the last two and were worthy winners.

City, Manchester United and Chelsea head the betting at 5/1 but the latter are back in the Champions League and their manager Antonio Conte has bemoaned a lack of depth lately. He certainly was reluctant to make changes to a functioning side but will have to do so to win this competition in a year.

Arsenal are not absurdly overpriced, but there's a case to be made for them being a point or two shorter. It's certainly hard to understand why they'd be considerably bigger than United, around whom there's a strange assumption that next year is going to see a return to the very top.

Click here to bet on the 2017/18 FA Cup

Arsenal will recognise what a feat it was for Celtic to go unbeaten in the Scottish Premiership and the Hoops completed a wonderful season with a dramatic win in the Scottish Cup, which meant a clean sweep of domestic trophies.

Sky Bet make them 9/2 for another treble next year but more interesting is the 16/1 available for a second unbeaten league campaign in succession. It will be a very difficult task but such is the lack of competition that it's not beyond them. (Ben Coley)

Elsewhere, it's been a tumultuous 10 years for Blackpool Football Club and exactly what happens next for the Seasiders is almost impossible to predict, but they’re 66/1 outsiders to win Sky Bet League One next season and 6/4 co-market leaders for an immediate return to the basement level of the EFL.

Sunday’s 2-1 victory over Exeter brought another remarkable season to a close and saw Blackpool become the most successful side in English play-off history – they’ve now won five from eight finals.

Having finished seventh overall during the regular campaign this time around, that familiar nothing-to-lose feeling clearly took over at the club in the past couple of weeks and all credit to Gary Bowyer for getting the most out of his tired squad.

The in-fighting between club and the core of their supporters remains as bitter as ever – only 6,000 made the journey from the north west at the weekend and average gate attendances at Bloomfield Road this season have dropped to 3,400 from a little over 11,000 a couple of years ago.

The summer transfer window generally does more damage than good for this team and plenty of clubs will be looking at Mark Cullen after his impressive season but if they can hang onto him, as well as the young talent of Brad Potts and exciting youth team product Bright Osayi-Samuel then the Tangerines should be in a reasonable place to hold their own in League One.

Given their play-off record then 20/1 for back-to-back promotions looks the best way of getting Blackpool on side but a year of stability would presumably be most welcome and getting financially involved now before a potential mass exodus from the playing staff looks a little too risky. (Matt Brocklebank)

Posted at 1215 BST on 29/05/17.