There's a big game in relation to the congested Sky Bet Championship play-off tussle on Monday night. Michael Beardmore provides the best bets for West Brom's trip to Watford.
1pt Darnell Furlong 1+ shots on target at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Darnell Furlong to score anytime at 14/1 (General)
0.5pt Hamza Choudhury to be first player carded at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
Two Sky Bet Championship play-off hopefuls meet at Vicarage Road on Monday night as Slaven Bilic’s Watford host his former club West Bromwich Albion.
The Hornets have seen their top-six hopes dented by a run of just two wins in nine games, with the Hornets developing a draw habit that has seen some of their rivals steal a march on them.
West Brom, meanwhile, have encountered their first mini-dip under Carlos Corberan, taking just four points from the last 12 available, a run that included a disappointing derby defeat at Birmingham.
Cards on the table, this is an outright to swerve given all of the above, as evidenced by the bookies struggling to separate the sides – but there are some really interesting prices in the player markets including the ones we've picked out.
A player I always like to have onside for Baggies games is attacking-minded right-back Darnell Furlong, who is averaging a shot per game over his last nine matches - and that's not much of an anomaly as his career shot per game average is 0.7.
He's the kind of player who pops up at the far post to meet a cross from his fellow full-back - and Albion are up against a Hornets defence that allow 11.9 shots per game, the third most of any top-half team.
It's worth a double dabble on Darnell for sure - both with the 7/2 on FURLONG TO HAVE 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET and the 14/1 on FURLONG TO SCORE ANYTIME.
The goal bet is more of a reach, admittedly, but he has netted twice this season, including in the recent defeat at Burnley and he appears to be thriving under Corberan.
From a Watford angle, cards leap out because the Hornets are the sixth most penalised side in the second tier this season, while the Baggies actually top the fair play standings.
It's no surprise to see a number of home players priced short for a card then, so I think this is a game that's worth small stakes on the first booking market.
Out of the two squads, combative midfielder HAMZA CHOUDHURY has the joint most cautions this season, yet the Leicester loanee is fifth favourite to be to be carded at 10/1 which looks a very nice price.
He's averaging a card every three games this season and 2.7 tackles per match - plus a team-leading 2.3 interceptions per game. It only takes one of those to go wrong early on in the midfield engine room for him to go into the book.
Score prediction: Watford 1-1 West Brom (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 1730 GMT (17/02/23)
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