2pts Neco Williams 2+ fouls won at evens (Sky Bet)
This is it for Wales. Win and they book themselves at the Euros alongside France, Netherlands and Austria. Lose and they will be watching the tournament from home.
The positives are that they looked good in beating Finland last Thursday (xG: WAL 3.07 - 1.45 FIN) and that they get to host this play-off. The bad news is that they face a more dangerous opponent in Poland, a side ranked 30 places higher than the Finns (60th) in the world rankings.
Rob Page will have confidence his nation can advance, but again from a betting stand point I am massively drawn to one player.
NECO WILLIAMS scored in the Dragons' 4-1 win last week, and while that was his only shot - meaning he was shy of the 2+ we needed - the FOULS WON bet won comfortably, and I see no need to change tack.
We will again back WILLIAMS TO WIN 2+ FOULS at a price that hasn't shortened much at all.
After being fouled three times in the Finland game, this bet has now won in six of Williams' eight Euro qualifying matches, averaging 2.08 per 90.
Playing as the left-sided wing-back for his country is probably why this bet has landed so regularly, as, given he's a right-footed player, he naturally drifts inside to the crowded centre, though his ability to beat his man sees him draw fouls on the flanks too.
This Poland team aren't the side of yesteryear; in fact they are especially vulnerable and Wales can take advantage in front of a sell-out crowd to get the job done in 90 minutes.
Both teams should hit the net though, with neither side boasting a strong defence. BTTS has landed in all of Wales' last four qualifiers, while clipping in Poland's last three.
Williams will draw the fouls as he regularly does when playing for Wales, as does Poland left-wing back Nicola Zalewski, who since breaking into the XI has been fouled an average of 2.01 times per 90.
Wales came through their win over Finland unscathed, meaning we should see an unchanged XI for this game, though Daniel James could be one player to force his way in.
Matty Cash picked up an injury in Poland's win over Estonia, meaning he will play no part on Tuesday. Fellow right back Przemysław Frankowski also got a knock in that game, and he's touch and go to start here.
Wales: Ward; Mepham, Rodon, Davies; Roberts, Ampadu, J. James, Williams; Brooks; Wilson, Johnson
Poland: Szczesny; Kiwior, Bednarek, Dawidowicz; Bereszynski, Zielinski, Slisz, Piotrowski, Zalewski; Swiderski, Lewandowski
Odds correct at 1510 GMT (19/03/24)
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