UFC 250 betting preview: Predictions and betting tips for the prelims on the UFC 250 Nunes v Spencer card

Recommended bets

2pts Alex Perez to win at 8/11

1pt Chase Hooper to win via submission at 17/10

1.5pts Menifield to win by KO at 4/5

0.5pt Menifield to win by KO in Round 1 at 9/5

The UFC reaches an impressive milestone as this weekend’s event marks its 250th pay-per-view. Another Saturday night means another UFC event from the Apex, this time with UFC 250.

Despite having name value on the main card with competitors like Amanda Nunes, Cody Garbrandt and Aljamain Sterling, I actually think the earlier bouts are the hidden gems of this event. Before the PPV action begins in the early morning, the UFC is offering a seven-fight preliminary extravaganza; featuring some heavy hitters, submission experts and the youngest fighter currently on the company’s roster.

Here are my bets for the prelims.

Perez to unlock his potential

A product of Dana White’s Contender series, Alex Perez is a very well rounded fighter. Beginning his journey in combat sports as an All-American college wrestler, he now has a 28-5 professional record in MMA at just 28 years old. He has evolved into an aggressive striker, fighting at a high pace and utilising good leg kicks and takedowns to diversify his offence.

Across the cage on Saturday night will be Jussier Formiga, a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt who has been fighting in the UFC since the Flyweight division was formed back in 2012. Now at 35 years of age he seems to be at a crossroads, as he recently suffered two straight losses for the first time in his career and has fallen down the division’s pecking order. As suspicions emerge that he is beginning to show signs of age, it is unlikely he will make another run at the title. This sets the tone nicely for the surging Perez, who is very much in his prime and will be looking to make a name for himself off the back of a Flyweight legend.

Stylistically I think this might be a difficult fight for Formiga, who is very much reliant upon his ability to grapple and utilise back control against his opponents. Looking at his record there is a clear narrative that he struggles in fights against wrestlers with good takedown defence, and Perez might be one of the best wrestlers in the division. The American’s defensive wrestling was on full display in his win over Eric Shelton in 2018, and I would be surprised if Formiga was able to get this fight to the ground with his usual single and double leg takedowns.

If Perez can keep the fight standing it should be one-way traffic as he has the quicker, more diverse and more powerful striking. His aforementioned leg kick will be a key weapon against the Brazilian, as a damaged lead leg will limit Formiga’s explosiveness and make the takedown easier to intercept and prevent. Joseph Benavidez was able to utilise leg kicks against Formiga, forcing him to fight solely on the feet and knocking the Brazilian out late in the second round. I believe Perez will be able to adopt this strategy and be in control of where the fight takes place, as he marches on to a comfortable victory.

2pts – Alex Perez to win at 8/11

UFC 250

• Date: Saturday June 6
• Venue: UFC APEX Centre in Las Vegas
• Watch: BT Sport 1 Main event at 5am, prelims from 1am
• Stream Online: UFC Fight Pass

Hooper to choke out Caceres

This fight is likely to be a chaotic mess. Chase Hooper is the youngest fighter on the UFC roster, and despite his 9-0-1 record he is severely lacking in the striking department. Fortunately for the 20-year-old, his grappling is very unorthodox and effective.

The UFC have invested a lot of marketing hype into Hooper, and this match-up demonstrates that. Alex Caceres has always been one of their lower calibre fighters, holding a 10-10 record inside the organization. He has often struggled with his takedown defence, preventing just 57 of the 98 attempts he has faced (an average of 58%). Hooper should therefore have ample opportunity to get this fight to the ground and look for the finish.

Despite the obvious advantages for Hooper, I find it almost impossible to trust a fighter so one dimensional at the current 4/7 price tag. I believe there is value on him to win by submission instead; Caceres has tapped out on seven occasions and Hooper has finished almost half of his fights this way. With the amount of time he should have on top, I expect The Dream to eventually find the back and secure the Rear Naked Choke victory.

1pt – Chase Hooper to win via submission at 17/10

UFC 250 card

Main card (3am UK time)

• Amanda Nunes (c) vs. Felicia Spencer
• Raphael Assuncao vs. Cody Garbrandt
• Aljamain Sterling vs. Cory Sandhagen
• Eddie Wineland vs. Sean O’Malley
• Neil Magny vs. Anthony Rocco Martin

Prelims (1am UK time)

• Alex Caceres vs. Chase Hooper
• Ian Heinisch vs. Gerald Meerschaert
• Cody Stamann vs. Brian Kelleher
• Charles Byrd vs. Maki Pitolo
• Alex Perez vs. Jussier Formiga
• Alonzo Menifield vs. Devin Clark
• Evan Dunham vs. Herbert Burns

Ten stoppages in a row for Menifield

Alonzo Menifield is a wrecking ball at 205lbs. With a 9-0 record, he has seven victories in round one and has never let a fight go longer than six minutes. Despite such dominance across his career so far, there are still some questions about his stamina and grappling ability. Menifield may have the opportunity to provide the answers in Saturday’s bout against Devin Clark.

A UFC fighter since 2016, Clark has spent the last four years of his career trading consecutive wins and losses. His striking is competent, but Brown Bear’s best work is done when mixing in grappling and asserting dominance on the mat. I expect him to respect Menifield’s power and begin looking for takedowns right away, or else he will likely be knocked out.

Unfortunately, Clark does not have the best top control and his opponents often find their way back to their feet. In each of his previous three losses, he squandered top position and was stunned once the action resumed. I expect the fight on Saturday night to follow that same pattern.

Whilst the UFC are hosting fights at their Apex facility they are using the smaller 25ft cage (usually 30ft). Although this may seem like a minor difference, the smaller cage statistically increases the likelihood of a finish; fighters have less space to create distance from their opponents and are forced to throw more strikes.

At the same time, takedowns are also statistically less successful due to the lack of open space. In both instances Clark will be at a disadvantage as he will have to engage with a dangerous opponent at boxing range, and will have less room to shoot for takedowns. Menifield should find the chin of his opponent and secure his 10th consecutive stoppage victory.

1.5pts – Menifield to win by KO at 4/5

0.5pts – Menifield to win by KO in Round 1 at 9/5

Odds correct as of 2100 BST on 04/06/20