Champions League betting preview: Best bets and stats for Tuesday's action, including Tottenham and Manchester City's group games
It is the second matchday of the Champions League group stages - George Pitts looks ahead to the action.
Recommended bets
2pts Bayern's Philippe Coutinho to have 4+ total shots v Tottenham at 21/10
1pt Over 1.5 total Man City goals in the first half v Dinamo Zagreb at 11/10
0.5pts Younes Belhanda to score anytime in Galatasaray v PSG at 13/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Tottenham had to show fighting spirit after going down to 10 men against Southampton in the Premier League on Saturday and they will need the same again for the visit of the German giants Bayern.
Munich may have looked like an ageing team in need of a revamp at times last season and Niko Kovac has done just that, with some impressive signings and they have made an unbeaten start to the season with six wins and two draws.
Spurs' weekend win may only have papered over the cracks in Mauricio Pochettino's squad though, and Bayern can capitalise having scored an impressive 20 goals in their last six matches.
With this in mind, the visitors are available at 5/2 to score three or more, but the preference is to look in the players market.
Philippe Coutinho is enjoying his start to life in Bavaria, scoring and assisting in back-to-back Bundesliga games. In those two league outings, he has had a total of 10 shots, while in their Champions League win over Red Star the Brazilian had a total of six shots, so he is clearly finding himself in promising positions in this Bayern team.
Nine of those 16 shots across the Bundesliga and Champions League have come from outside the box, so a 12/1 Price Boost for him to score from more than 18 yards could be worth considering.
He is looking back to his best after a nightmare spell at Barcelona. In terms of individual teams he has faced, Tottenham are Coutinho's favourite opponent, scoring three and assisting two in 12 appearances against the Londoners (seven wins, four draws, two losses).
Coutinho is nearly 3/1 to score anytime in places, a great price considering his promising start, but 4+ shots catches the eye at 21/10, which covers us for blocked efforts and those wide of the target.
We're starting to see the best of Philippe Coutinho at Bayern Munich 🔥
— Football on BT Sport (@btsportfootball) September 28, 2019
An assist and goal vs Paderborn to top off a fine display... pic.twitter.com/jCuqUjdCdQ
Key stats
- Tottenham have scored in 23 of their 25 Champions League group stage matches, only failing to score home and away against German side Bayer Leverkusen in 2016-17.
- Bayern Munich are looking to become just the second side after PSG in October 2017 to score 2+ goals in six successive Champions League away group stage matches since the competition changed to its current format in 2003-04.
- Bayern Munich’s Robert Lewandowski has scored in 39 different Champions League matches; only Ruud van Nistelrooy (42), Karim Benzema (45), Raul (56), Lionel Messi (68), Cristiano Ronaldo (82) have scored in more individual contests.
With Manchester City already falling behind Liverpool in the domestic table, this could be the season for Pep Guardiola's side to put all their efforts into the Champions League.
It is, of course, early days to write them off in the Premier League, but the European Cup is one top trophy missing from Guardiola's spell at the Etihad.
They are current favourites to lift the trophy and Tuesday is a good chance for them to continue a perfect start to the group stages.
We have seen this City side dismantle sides at the Etihad in recent seasons, both in the league and Europe - just ask Shakhtar and Schalke (6-0 and 7-0 respectively last season).
The odds are understandably stacked in their favour, even with short prices in the goalscorer market.
They usually start pretty well on home soil and a personal favourite is to back an early goal, but this time we are looking at total Man City goals in the first half.
This side can easily kill off games early on - they scored 49 first-half goals in the Premier League in 2018/19 and have so far scored 14 already this season.
They scored two in the first half at Shakhtar and they are good value to score two or more here at 11/10.
Best bet: Over 1.5 total Man City goals in the first half at 11/10
Key stats
- Manchester City have won their last four Champions League home games by an aggregate score of 19-4; they’ve never won five in a row in the competition. Indeed, City have lost only one of their last 11 home group stage matches (W9 D1 L1).
- Manchester City’s 3-0 win over Shakhtar Donetsk was Pep Guardiola’s 30th managerial UEFA Champions League win by three or more goals – only Carlo Ancelotti (32 wins) has more by that margin in the history of the competition.
- Dinamo Zagreb are winless in their last 15 Champions League away matches (D2 L13), losing each of the last 12. No side has ever lost 13 consecutive away games in the Champions League (Spartak Moscow also lost 12 between October 2000 and October 2006).
Paris Saint-Germain started their campaign in style in matchday one, beating Real Madrid 3-0, but they face a different type of test on Tuesday.
Away trips to Turkey are known for being difficult and Galatasaray will put up a fight as they look to build on their opening draw at Club Brugge.
Their squad is full of familiar faces - former Monaco and Manchester United forward Radamel Falcao, ex-Fulham duo Ryan Babel and Jean Michael Seri, Southampton loanee Mario Lemina and West Ham flop Sofiane Feghouli.
With a hostile atmosphere behind them, they can at least grab a goal and Babel is worth a look having scored twice in the league this term and the Dutchman, who had a decent spell in England in the second half of last season, averages over two shots per game.
But a preferred option is midfielder Younes Belhanda. The Moroccan returned from a short injury spell at the weekend, playing 90 minutes in their draw with rivals Fenerbahce.
He averages over two shots per game in the league this term and can play a supporting role to Galatasaray's attack and will look to test Keylor Navas. At 13/2 anytime, it is risky but an appealing price that could be worth a small stake should he start against the Ligue 1 champions.
Best bet: Younes Belhanda to score anytime in Galatasaray v PSG at 13/2
Key stats
- PSG have lost both of their away Champions League matches against Turkish teams, losing 1-3 against Besiktas in October 1997 and 0-1 versus Galatasaray in December 2000.
- PSG midfielder Angel Di Maria has been directly involved in seven goals in his last eight Champions League appearances (four goals, three assists). Di MarÃa’s last two CL matches against Galatasaray in the 2013-14 group stages saw the Argentine score once and assist three times.
- PSG’s Kylian Mbappe has been directly involved in 14 goals in his 12 away games in the Champions League (10 goals, 4 assists). No player in Champions League history has scored more goals in their first 12 away games than Mbappe (10 - level with Mario Gomez).
Atletico have started well in the league this season and they follow up their derby draw with Real with a tough trip to Moscow.
Luckily for them, they have a good record in Russia and Diego Simeone's side should do the business even with a bit of rotation, with the hosts themselves having a growing injury list.
One player likely to start for the visitors is summer signing Joao Felix, the wonderkid who cost them £113m from Benfica.
The Portuguese starlet is adapting to life well in Simeone's side and it looks like he will be start, with the decision to be made over which former Chelsea forward partners him - either Alvaro Morata or Diego Costa.
Felix has two goals in LaLiga and he can open his Atletico account in Europe at the RZD Arena. He had five shots in their opening draw with Juventus and a price at just over 2/1 looks like a good option here.
Best bet: Joao Felix to score anytime at 23/10
Key stats
- Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in four Champions League matches versus sides from Russia, picking up three wins in the process (D1). Only one of those three victories came away from home, beating FC Rostov in October 2016 under Diego Simeone.
- Kieran Trippier created seven chances in Atlético Madrid’s 2-2 draw with Juventus, the most of any player on MD1 of this season’s UEFA Champions League. Since the start of last season, only Dusan Tadic (41) has created more chances than Trippier in the competition (32).
- Diego Simeone has never lost in four matches against Russian sides in the Champions League (W3 D1 L0) – his joint-best unbeaten record versus teams from a single nation in the competition alongside Netherlands.
Odds correct as of 1400 BST on 30/09/19
Tuesday's Champions League fixtures
2000 BST kick-off unless stated
- Atalanta v Shakhtar Donetsk (1755 BST)
- Real Madrid v Club Brugge (1755 BST)
- Red Star Belgrade v Olympiacos
- Galatasaray v Paris Saint-Germain
- Juventus v Bayer Leverkusen
- Lokomotiv Moscow v Atletico Madrid
- Manchester City v Dinamo Zagreb
- Tottenham v Bayern Munich
Our predictions: Tottenham 0-3 Bayern, Man City 4-0 Dinamo Zagreb, Juventus 2-1 Bayer Leverkusen, Leeds 1-1 West Brom, Middlesbrough 1-2 Preston, Blackburn 1-2 Nottingham Forest.
Champions League outright preview
The Champions League gets underway in September with 32 teams aiming for European glory. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets - click the image below to have a read...
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