We have another midweek round of Bundesliga fixtures and Tom Carnduff picks out two shots-based best bets at prices of 15/8 and 9/4.
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Borussia Monchengladbach v Wolfsburg
There was a genuine feeling at half-time on Saturday that Borussia Monchengladbach could kick on and beat Bayern Munich. However, a sub-par second-half showing meant that they were beaten by a team who should once again be crowned champions on Tuesday night.
For Wolfsburg, they moved three points clear of Hoffenheim with a draw against Freiburg, three points here will be a massive step in the right direction of securing European football next season.
The biggest positive of that result was the form of Wout Weghorst, with the striker netting both of Wolfsburg's goals. He's scored three goals across his previous two outings and will be hopeful of continuing that against a Monchengladbach side who have lost their last two.
Crucially for the Dutch forward, he has posted nine shots across that period; five of which were on target. Given his fine form, there's value in the 15/8 available on Weghorst having two or more shots on target on Tuesday night.
This contest was one filled with shots on target in their first meeting. A total of 13 made it a game at the higher end of the scale. In the context of this game and both teams needing a win, we should expect to see similar here.
The Asian Handicap has Monchengladbach at -0.25 but there is a case to be made for Wolfsburg securing all three points, particularly with Marcus Thuram expected to be missing for the hosts. Alassane Plea is also said to be battling with a groin problem so their firepower is significantly reduced.
Breel Embolo can come in but he is returning from injury himself and will need time to get up to full speed once again, even with a lengthy appearance against Bayern last time out.
Due to those injury issues, the 23/10 on Wolfsburg should also be considered when it comes to the outright market. It seems a price that will be shorter closer to kick-off and there would be little surprise to see it go below 2/1.
Instead though, with Weghorst floating around 6/4 for a goal anytime, the best bet comes in backing the Wolfsburg striker to continue his recent fine form in front of goal by having two or more shots on target in this contest.
Score prediction: Borussia Monchengladbach 1-2 Wolfsburg (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Werder Bremen v Bayern Munich
There were some questions about how Bayern would react following the lengthy break given their form prior to it, but they've answered everything thrown at them and should win the title as they travel to Bremen.
Regardless of what happens elsewhere, the Bavarian side will wrap up their eighth consecutive Bundesliga crown with victory against a Bremen side who are battling for their own survival. Recent results suggest that they will be no pushovers despite their position in the table.
The biggest eye-raising result of the weekend was their convincing 5-1 victory over fellow strugglers Paderborn; that moved them level on points with Fortuna Dusseldorf in the relegation play-off places.
It's hardly a surprise to see Bayern at 1/5 for victory here given their transformation into a genuine force under Hansi Flick's guidance. The Asian Handicap having them at -2 indicates that the money is behind a win with a margin.
However, that doesn't mean that Bremen will not have any chances to score. They can take confidence from the five they hit last time out and given how this fixture should always be viewed as a free hit, there is an element of playing without fear that goes into it.
When looking around the markets, and avoiding the short prices that often come with Bayern fixtures, the one area that caught my eye was shots on target and in particular the 9/4 available on Bremen's Davy Klaassen to have at least one effort on target in this contest.
The midfielder netted two in that convincing win over Paderborn and has posted at least one shot in each of his six outings since the break. In fact, the 1-0 defeat to Wolfsburg is the only game since the pause where he has failed to have at least one effort on target.
Klaassen is a player enjoying his football at the moment he's found an attacking touch over the four weeks. Just because Bremen are facing a side like Bayern does not mean they aren't going to get any chances.
Ultimately this should be a game where Bayern win comfortably but there is little to no value in backing them for success; it's something that is expected in 99% of their domestic fixtures.
Instead, the best price comes with looking at the hosts and in particular Klaassen to have his opportunity to find the net once again.
Score prediction: Werder Bremen 0-3 Bayern Munich (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1530 BST (15/06/20)
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