UEFA Super Cup betting tips: Chelsea v Villarreal best bets and preview
The UEFA Super Cup takes place on Wednesday with Chelsea facing Villarreal. Tom Carnduff has three best bets to back.
Football betting tips: Chelsea v Villarreal
1pt Timo Werner to have 1+ assists at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Hakim Ziyech to have 2+ shots on target from outside the area at 15/2 (Betfair)
0.5pts Manu Trigueros and Mateo Kovacic to be carded at 25/1 (bet365)
Champions League winners Chelsea meet Europa League holders Villarreal in Belfast as the two compete for the UEFA Super Cup - an opportunity to kick their season off with a trophy.
As expected, it's the winners of Europe's elite club competition who are often victorious in this contest - with Atletico Madrid being the only Europa League side to have lifted the Super Cup in the past ten years - they did it three times with wins over Inter (2010), Chelsea (2012) and Real Madrid (2018).
What is surprising is how often the games go beyond 90 minutes and that it worth remembering when it comes to the outright market. While the favourite often wins they need more than regular time to do it - five of the last six Super Cup games have gone to extra-time.
Chelsea should have enough though as they continue their momentum under Thomas Tuchel. Success is key and they have a very talented squad to choose from - even rotation should see them justify their 2/5 price for lifting the trophy.
Even with Euro 2020 this summer, we can expect a strong Chelsea side as they look to get their season underway in positive fashion. It should resemble what may be their strongest side in the Premier League - although it should be noted that the arrival of Romelu Lukaku would change that.
What it does mean is that the forward trio should resemble what we saw in the second-half of last season and the 4/1 price with Sky Bet on TIMO WERNER TO HAVE 1+ ASSISTS looks too generous given his performances. He was under the microscope as he wasn't the prolific scorer Chelsea had hoped for but he did play his part.
Werner's 2020/21 league campaign finished with eight assists from 6.39 xA. If we include penalties that figure jumps up to 12 and that's something worth noting when backing the assists with Sky Bet - if he is fouled for a penalty and that is scored he will be credited with the assist.
Across all competitions, Werner had 15 assists in 52 appearances and that number should increase this season if Lukaku arrives as expected. It will take the pressure off him being the main striker and it will allow him to be able to occupy the left side of the pitch as he likes to.
Even without Lukaku, Chelsea found a fix that looks like it works as Kai Havertz steps into the centre-forward role supported by Werner and Mason Mount. Havertz and Werner should feature but we could predict that Hakim Ziyech steps in due to Mount's involvement with England.
His involvement creates value in the shots market and it's worth taking that 15/2 available with Betfair on ZIYECH TO HAVE 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA. It's an eye-catching part of his game and he likes to shoot from distance - this game should be no different.
There's also the case that he is battling for his spot in the starting XI - it's a competitive area of the pitch for Chelsea - and Ziyech will be eager to make his mark with a goal. That should lead to efforts from outside the area.
Finally, Sergey Karasev's appointment as referee could bring cards as is often the case in European club competitions. He could be viewed as a strict referee last season - his card average stood at 5.07 per game from 29 appearances alongside pointing to the penalty spot on 12 occasions.
There's a best price of 25/1 with bet365 on MANU TRIGUEROS + MATEO KOVACIC TO BE CARDED. Both of those were no strangers to cards last season and a battle in midfield could see them catch the referee's attention.
Trigueros finished with 10 cards across all competitions last season while Kovacic ended with seven from 42. There's some speculation that goes into card doubles but they delivered last season - most notably at 22/1 when Chelsea beat Real Madrid in the Champions League semi-final.
Chelsea v Villarreal best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Timo Werner to have 1+ assists at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Hakim Ziyech to have 2+ shots on target from outside the box at 15/2 (Betfair)
- 0.5pts Manu Trigueros and Mateo Kovacic to be carded at 25/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-0 Villarreal (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1500 BST (10/08/21)
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