Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: Theatre of Nightmares
For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.
We landed two correct results last weekend thanks to Aston Villa's 1-0 success over Arsenal, and Luton's hard-fought 2-1 loss against Manchester City. Hopefully we can keep it going, but gameweek six of the Champions League group stage is always tricky.
What we know can sometimes go out of the window due to dead rubbers, heightened stakes or a mix of both. But let's give it a go!
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Round 23 predictions
- Man Utd 1-3 Bayern Munich
- Union Berlin 1-1 Real Madrid
- Crvena Zvezda 1-2 Man City
- Newcastle 3-2 Milan
- Dortmund 1-1 PSG
- Celtic 1-2 Feyenoord
Hell for the Red Devils
- Manchester United vs Bayern Munich
- TNT Sports 1: Tuesday, 20:00 GMT
It's simple for Manchester United, they must win in order to have any chance of qualifying for the knockouts. What isn't simple is the fact that they must beat a Bayern Munich side who will likely field their first choice XI after a weekend thumping, in a bid to find some rhythm ahead of another tough weekend game.
The Bavarians' attacking line-up is simply frightening and will terrorise United's shockingly vulnerable defensive line, especially as the hosts have to attack in an attempt to win the game, so Thomas Tuchel's men can put the nail in United's European coffin.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-3 Bayern Munich (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Union to get a result
- Union Berlin vs Real Madrid
- TNT Sports 4: Tuesday, 20:00 GMT
Real Madrid have got a serious La Liga title race on their hands, a thin squad due to injuries and have already confirmed themselves as group winners, so I think we can safely assume they will rotate here.
Union won for the first time in 16 games across all competitions at the weekend, a sigh of relief for everyone at the club as they moved out of the Bundesliga relegation zone. They will be taking this game very seriously, and know a win could see them qualify for the Europa League, but a draw looks on the cards.
Score prediction: Union Berlin 1-1 Real Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
A dead rubber win
- Crvena Zvezda vs Manchester City
- TNT Sports 2: Tuesday, 20:00 GMT
Group G is done and dusted. All four teams know their fate, meaning this is the definition of a dead rubber. That makes predicting this game tough.
We do know City will rotate, but their back-ups are of a much higher quality than their hosts starting XI, so Pep's side can edge a tight contest.
Score prediction: Crvena Zvezda 1-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Carnage at St. James'
- Newcastle vs Milan
- TNT Sports 1: Wednesday, 20:00 GMT
Both Newcastle and Milan need to win here to have any chance of qualifying for the Champions League knockouts, while only a win for Milan would give them a chance of finishing third and dropping into the Europa League.
Eddie Howe's side have saved their best for home matches this season, and they do welcome back a few players which has me leaning in their direction. Milan boast some excellent forward players and should test the Newcastle backline, but could ultimately be out-gunned.
Score prediction: Newcastle 3-2 Milan (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)
All square in Germany
- Dortmund vs PSG
- TNT Sports 3: Wednesday, 20:00 GMT
A draw here could suit both teams, depending on the result at St. James'. A win for PSG would see them secure top spot, meaning there is still plenty on the line for both sides.
Ultimately, Dortmund aren't a very trustworthy team despite having performed well in the group stage - with their qualification secured - but come into this game winless in three. PSG have struggled away from home in this competition so far, conceding too many good chances in defeats in Newcastle and Milan. Draw.
Score prediction: Dortmund 1-1 PSG (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Hell for the Red Devils
- Celtic vs Feyenoord
- TNT Sports 1: Wednesday, 20:00 GMT
Will Celtic ever win a Champions League group game again? It's a good chance for them to do so against a team playing for nothing, but the Bhoys have lost 21 of their last 29 group games.
Feyenoord have wrapped up third place and can't catch the teams above them, but still possess a lot of quality, enough to edge to a win on Wednesday.
Score prediction: Celtic 1-2 Feyenoord (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
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