Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: Start of the charge
For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.
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Round 30 predictions
- Cardiff 1-2 Leeds
- West Brom 2-0 Blackburn
- Ipswich 3-2 Sunderland
- Newcastle 1-2 Man City
- Everton 2-1 Aston Villa
- Man Utd 1-2 Tottenham
City slickers
- Newcastle vs Manchester City
- TNT Sports: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
Manchester City are back.
Let's be honest, they never left. The general consensus is that they have been poor this season, yet they are just five points off the top with a game in hand. At the same stage last season they were just two points and 0.9 xP better off, highlighting that there levels haven't really dropped at all.
This is undoubtedly a tough test for them against a Newcastle team with a W8 L2 record at St James' Park that have now got players back fit, but the Citizens should prove too strong now near full strength themselves, with the Magpies looking incredibly vulnerable defensively of late.
Score prediction: Newcastle 1-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Villa stuck in Toffee
- Everton vs Aston Villa
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 14:00 GMT
Everton badly need results. They head into the weekend one point above the dotted line after a hat-trick of league defeats, the last of which was their first really poor performance for a long while at Wolves. I expect better here, especially with performances at Goodison Park good this term, despite what the results say.
They have won three and lost six of their 10 home games, but have averaged 2.00 xGF and 1.33 xGA per game, meaning they could cause Villa some issues here. Unai Emery's side have won only four of 10 away league games, conceding 19 times, so are vulnerable travelers.
Score prediction: Everton 2-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Super Spurs
- Manchester United vs Tottenham
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 14:00 GMT
Yes, Tottenham are missing pretty much the spine of their team - Christian Romero, Yves Bissouma, Pape Matar Sarr, James Maddison and Hueng-min Son - but you just can't watch this Manchester United team and think a positive result is coming.
They still look all over the place and are without key players themselves, meaning the visitors are fancied. Spurs have a way of playing, an identity, that doesn't change for any opponent, while United don't know who they are or how they want to play, making them vulnerable in every game.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
With the Whites
- Cardiff vs Leeds
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Cardiff have been majorly hit-and-miss of late, but remain within touching distance of the play-offs in ninth. They are in a false position though, ranking 18th on xGD per game and 19th for expected points (xP). Over the last eight league games, only Rotherham have performed worst than the Bluebirds on the underlying data.
Leeds are the opposite. The Whites are chasing down an automatic promotion spot and have been the second best team in the second tier this season. Only Leicester possess a better xGD per game than Leeds, and only the Foxes have collected more xP. They can snap a three match road losing streak here.
Score prediction: Cardiff 1-2 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Back the Baggies
- West Brom vs Blackburn
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
West Brom have made the Hawthorns a fortress since Carlos Corberan took charge, winning 20 of 29. This season they have won eight of 13 and rank as the eighth best home side on xG data, excelling defensively by conceding just 10 times and allowing 0.82 xGA per game - a number bettered only by leaders Leicester.
Blackburn have hit a sticky patch, losing six of their last 10 in the Championship, with four of those coming in five away games. They have fallen to 17th in the standings and are likely to suffer another defeat here.
Score prediction: West Brom 2-0 Blackburn (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Portman goals
- Ipswich vs Sunderland
- Sky Sports: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
Ipswich are winless in five in the league, with goals hard to come by of late, netting three times in that period. That's very unlike them, and I don't expect it to continue here. At Portman Road, the Tractor Boys have netted 33 times in 13 outings, averaging 2.04 xGF per game.
Sunderland sit sixth in the table but rank fourth best over the season according to xG. Michael Beale has overseen two wins a draw and a defeat in the league since arriving, and they will prove a stiff test for promotion chasing Ipswich.
Score prediction: Ipswich 3-2 Sunderland (Sky Bet odds: 20/1)
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