Super 6 predictions and correct score tips: 1-0 to the A... Villa?
For every round of Super 6, Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) uses expected goals (xG) data to assess the match-ups and make his correct score predictions.
Midweeks are always fun aren't they. Well, no not really, but the football was enjoyable this past few days. As for Super 6, no correct scores for me, just the four correct results.
That does mean I'm barking up the right tree, with nine results correct out of 12 across the last two rounds. We go again.
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Round 23 predictions
- Man Utd 1-1 Bournemouth
- Brighton 3-1 Burnley
- Sheff Utd 0-2 Brentford
- Aston Villa 1-0 Arsenal
- Luton 1-2 Man City
- Tottenham 2-1 Newcastle
1-0, to the A...Villa
- Aston Villa vs Arsenal
- Sky Sports: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
They can't do it again, can they? Beating Manchester City and then Arsenal just four days apart would be an incredible statement from Aston Villa, and it would see them extend their home league win streak to 15, moving to within one point of the current leaders. I think they do it.
Replicating the same levels they showed against City will be tough, but the consistency with which they are performance should give us every confidence they can come close to it. After all, they have won their last 14 home league games by an aggregate score of 38-7.
Arsenal away are also an interesting case. Last season they won just once against the top five, losing twice, and the two games in which they have dropped points on the road this season have come against decent sides, Chelsea and Newcastle, with the Gunners fortunate to get a point against the former. Villa are in that category.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-0 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Count on Cherries
- Manchester United vs Bournemouth
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
United were excellent against Chelsea in midweek, but can they back it up? It was the Red Devils' best attacking display of the season to date (4.17 xGF), but was it an aberration? Prior to that game they had averaged 1.43 xGF per game, and against an improving Bournemouth team we could see them revert to that kind of level.
The Cherries are one of the form sides in the league, winning four of their last six and collecting 13 points from a possible 18. Their underlying process in that six game span is excellent, averaging 2.00 xGF and 1.09 xGA per game. I fancy them to get a result at Old Trafford.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Sharp Seagulls
- Brighton vs Burnley
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Brighton tend to struggle against teams who sit deep and counter attack. Roberto De Zerbi's side have already been held by Sheffield United and Fulham at the Amex who adopted that approach, while losing to West Ham. Burnley won't do that. They won't change their style for anyone, meaning the Seagulls should have plenty of joy on Saturday.
The Clarets are a poor team in general, with their only wins this season coming against their fellow promoted sides. They have lost every game against teams in 15th and above, and head to Brighton - who are averaging 1.93 xGF per home game this season - posting an away xG process of 0.74 and 1.90 xGA per game. Another defeat seems incredibly likely then.
Score prediction: Brighton 3-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
A Bramall Bee sting
- Sheffield United vs Brentford
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Chris Wilder's return to Sheffield United started with defeat at Liverpool, with the Blades again not sharp enough in attack, mustering just 0.99 xGF. That was the 12th time in 15 league games they have failed to crack the 1.0 xGF mark, highlighting their struggles.
Brentford's away form doesn't read too great (W2 D1 L4), but all defeats have come against teams in the top eight. The Bees should be too strong for their hosts on Saturday, with their away process at both ends of the pitch (1.71 xGF and 1.26 xGA per game) much better than their results suggest. Their set-piece strength could also be hugely important in both attack and defence.
Score prediction: Sheffield United 0-2 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Hatters can keep it close
- Luton vs Manchester City
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 14:00 GMT
Manchester City are winless in four Premier League games. Who saw that coming? Pep Guardiola's side have been iffy away this season too as they travel to Luton, winning four of their eight, losing three times. They have to be better than midweek, and probably will with Rodri coming back in but Luton can keep it close.
The Hatters pushed Arsenal all the way in midweek, and while they have lost four at home this term, all four have been by a single-goal margin. Their home process is ok for a team of their stature and budget (1.36 xGF, 1.83 xGA per game), and they can catch out another of the big boys.
Score prediction: Luton 1-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Tottenham vs Newcastle
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 16:30 GMT
Have Newcastle got anything left in the tank? With a skeleton squad, the Magpies have played four times in 12 days, with this their fifth game in 15. They have saved their best performances for St James' Park, with their away form appalling for a team chasing the top four (W1 D2 L4).
Tottenham are bang out of form. They crashed down to earth with a bang. From top of the table to winless in five, with defeat at West Ham their fourth in that run. Defensively they remain suspect, while their attack is exciting and on the whole they are just fun to watch. This looks a decent spot for Spurs to get back on the winning trail, with a tired Magpies side maybe prioritising a crucial Champions League game in midweek.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
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