Football betting tips: Bundesliga, Ligue 1
18:30 – Heidenheim vs Stuttgart
1pt Over 3.0 Goals at 17/20 (Bet365)
19:45 – Strasbourg vs Lyon
1pt Over 2.5 Goals at 4/5 (bet365, Betfred)
1pt Endrick 2+ shots on target at 8/5 (Unibet, BetMGM)
Heidenheim vs Stuttgart
- Kick-off: Sunday, 18:30 GMT
- TV: Amazon PPV
- Live odds, form and stats
An entertaining and high-scoring encounter is likely at Voith-Arena.
Over 2.5 Goals has landed in 70% of these two teams’ combined Bundesliga games this season (16 of Stuttgart’s 22 fixtures, 15 of Heidenheim’s 22 fixtures). The relevant home and away stats are even more emphatic: eight of Heidenheim’s 11 home fixtures and all 11 of Stuttgart’s away fixtures (86% combined overall) have had Over 2.5 Goals as well.
As the odds on Over 2.5 Goals are fairly short at 4/7, you may want to consider Over 3.5 Goals (11/8) instead. This would have paid out in 36% of the two sides’ Bundesliga games, and 41% of the respective home and away games.
We'll choose to split the difference, and take OVER 3.0 GOALS on the Asian line instead. Available at 17/20, this selection means you would lose money only if the game has two goals or fewer, with stakes returned if there are exactly three goals.
Strasbourg vs Lyon
- Kick-off: Sunday, 19:45 GMT
- TV: Amazon PPV
- Live odds, form and stats
Goals have been the order of the day since Gary O’Neil took over at Strasbourg.
All six of Strasbourg’s matches across all competitions have seen Over 2.5 goals land since the ex-Wolves boss replaced Liam Rosenior in January. The Alsatians are creating stacks of chances – their xG for is 2.02 per game under O’Neil – but their back four has begun to wobble since Mamadou Sarr, their best centre-back, joined parent club Chelsea last month.
Lyon arrive on a remarkable run of 13 straight wins in all competitions, and have scored two or more goals in nine of those 13 victories. Locked in a tight battle for a top-three spot, Paulo Fonseca’s players will play to win, and believe they can, thanks to the confidence their Portuguese boss has instilled in them.
OVER 2.5 GOALS at 4/5 is our first selection. One of the players most likely to ramp up the final-third excitement levels is Brazil star ENDRICK.
The teenage forward has settled immediately following his loan move from Real Madrid to Lyon last month. In just 330 Ligue 1 minutes he has scored three times and provided one assist.
You may want to consider the 19-year-old in the Anytime Goalscorer market. Shop around and odds close to 2/1 are available.
We'll instead back him to take 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET. From a starting position out on the right wing, he has shown immense ‘Shot Monster’ potential, cutting in on his stronger left foot.
On his Ligue 1 debut against Brest (Jan 18), Endrick managed two shots on target from four attempts. The following week, he had six attempts on goal at Metz – and all six were on target.
Having served a one-match suspension last weekend, he will be champing at the bit to get back out and show what he can do.
Odds correct at 16:15 GMT (20/02/26)
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