Tottenham v Arsenal preview: Richard Jolly looks at how Jose Mourinho & Mikel Arteta compare ahead of North London derby

Tottenham v Arsenal

• Sunday 4.40pm Sky Sports
• Match Odds: Home 8/5 | Draw 12/5 | Away 13/8

In 2000, Jose Mourinho joined Benfica, Mikel Arteta went to Paris Saint-Germain. One was beginning his first managerial job, the other headed for his top-flight debut.

Twenty years on and as they meet as managers for the first time in Sunday’s North London derby, they are at very different stages of their careers. Arteta is looking to make his mark, Mourinho seeking to repeat past glories.

That may be mirrored by recent fortunes: Mourinho might have summer victories over bottom-half sides but before then he went on the longest winless run of his career, a seven-game stretch that lasted from February to June. Arteta went into lockdown with Arsenal boasting the Premier League’s only undefeated record in 2020 and while they then lost to Manchester City and Brighton, they have responded with a five-match unbeaten run.

The sight of both outside the top six shows the extent to which their clubs have underachieved during seasons that began under Mauricio Pochettino and Unai Emery respectively. In one respect, however, both have overperformed: both over the campaign as a whole and during their new managers’ reigns, they have a negative expected goal differential (in other words, the expected goals against is higher than the total for); that they are not in the lower half of the standings can be explained in part because fine finishers like Harry Kane and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang will normally score more goals than the quality of chances dictate they should.

And yet Tottenham had the sixth most points since Mourinho was appointed and Arsenal had the fifth most since Arteta’s first game. Each has taken his new team up the table.

• It's 5/1 that Harry Kane & Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang score in Tottenham v Arsenal

If Arteta’s net difference of -0.16 expected goals is smaller than Mourinho’s of -2.71, the more pertinent difference may be the recent results. Arsenal have kept six clean sheets in their last 10 league games; in two more of their last 11, they were not breached while they still had 11 men on the pitch. Tottenham, in contrast, went nine games without a shutout before the 2-0 win over West Ham.

Arsenal produced arguably the best defensive display under the Spaniard at Molineux last week, when they limited Wolves to a solitary shot on target. They have also added an attacking edge after the break. A reason why their xGA topped their xG was that some of their winter results came with similar or fewer shots.

Now they have had more shots on target in each of their last five league games; they have had 20 in the last three alone. Their expected points since resumption puts them in the top four, with the two Manchester clubs and Chelsea. It offers optimism they could be in the actual top four next season.

• Arsenal are 5/1 to finish in the top four in 2020/21

Tottenham, meanwhile, have been less incisive. Mourinho has cited the number of attacking players he has selected – Harry Kane, Heung-Min Son, Lucas Moura, Steven Bergwijn, Giovani Lo Celso and Moussa Sissoko all started at Bramall Lane, for instance – but Spurs only had two shots on target against both Sheffield United and Everton and none against Bournemouth.

Spurs were at their most potent at the start of Mourinho’s reign. In his first seven games, only Liverpool took more points or scored more goals. Since then, they rank 10th for points, 12th for goals and, most damningly, 16th for expected goals against. They have regressed, not progressed. Arteta again feels Mourinho’s opposite: in his first seven league games in charge, Arsenal stood 12th for expected points, 13th for expected goals against and 14th for expected goals for. The improvement was not immediate, but has come since then.

His defence has tightened up. Has Mourinho’s? Rewind to his Chelsea days and he was the byword for defensive solidity. His 2004-05 champions only conceded 15 league goals in the season. His Spurs team are on course to concede more than twice as many under him, even though his first game was only on November 23.

It may be too soon to say Arteta’s recent change in formation marks a turning point but since he moved to 3-4-3, Arsenal have only conceded one goal in three games, and that was after they went down to 10 men against Leicester. In comparison, Mourinho’s flirtation with a back three has been less successful: Tottenham conceded eight goals in four games and only won one.

• Arsenal are 5/2 to keep a clean sheet against Tottenham

Arteta may have served his apprenticeship under Pep Guardiola but he is veering away from his mentor’s methods as he goes on. Arsenal have only had more possession in one of their last four matches, and even then it was just 51.6 percent at home to bottom club Norwich. They are becoming a defensively organised counter-attacking team who can use pace on the break in clinical fashion.

Those words could have been used to describe many a Mourinho team, but not Tottenham. They had 65.5 percent of possession in losing to Wolves, 67.5 percent when they were beaten at Bramall Lane and 64.3 percent in the sorry stalemate with Bournemouth.

If it suggests they have an identity crisis, Arteta’s Arsenal are forging a new team. Ostensibly similar statistics in managers’ spells can mask considerable differences. Neighbours may be headed in contrasting directions. Sunday could speed up the journey.

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