Sky Bet Championship title race: Are Leeds the value pick for success?
We know better than to claim something is done at such an early stage in this league, but the meeting between Leicester and Leeds at the beginning of November could have killed any hopes the visitors had about lifting the title again.
A win for Leicester would have moved them a staggering 17 points clear of Leeds in third after just 15 games. Even a draw leaving them 14 points apart would have been significant enough.
Yet, Georginio Rutter's close range strike swung it from a potential 17 points to an actual gap of 11. Fast forward a week or so and suddenly it's eight.
From game over, to game on.
Sky Bet Championship 23/2 title odds (via Sky Bet)
- Leicester - 8/11
- Leeds - 3/1
- Ipswich - 10/3
- Southampton - 18/1
- 80/1 bar
Odds correct at 1000 GMT (22/11/23)
The Whites now have 31 points from their first 16 games, more than Daniel Farke's 2018/19 title-winning Norwich (30) side had at the same stage - the same as when they would win it again two years later.
Not only have they visited Leicester and won, but Leeds also secured maximum returns against Ipswich at Portman Road.
They may have lost at Southampton, but the fact they've played the other three members of the top four away already can be seen as an advantage further down the line.
Seven of Leeds' first 16 have been against sides currently in the top half of the standings, but context is key when analysing their summer and subsequent start to the campaign.
Ignore the start of the season
Contract fallout from Premier League relegation led to a desired mass exodus from those responsible for the dire top-flight campaign.
Loan clauses effectively saw their hands tied in terms of what they could and couldn't do across the bulk of the summer window - Daniel Farke left to work with what he had.
The struggles with personnel is best understood when analysing the squads from the first three games of the campaign.
From the opening weekend 2-2 draw against Cardiff, only one member of the back four remains a regular starter. Against Birmingham, three of the four forwards are now fringe squad members.
Of the bench in the home contest with West Brom - where Leeds could only name seven subs from a possible nine - four are no longer regular members of the matchday squad (Lewis Bate, Charlie Cresswell, Darko Gyabi and Kristoffer Klaesson), two are out on loan (Cody Drameh and Sam Greenwood) and Karl Darlow (sub goalkeeper) is the only one to retain his spot.
Five of the nine summer signings (either permanent or on loan) joined from August 24 onwards.
Effectively, we shouldn't include the early parts of the campaign when judging Leeds' title credentials - even if it will have an impact on the table come the conclusion of the campaign.
Attacking depth and strong defence
While a simple way of doing things, taking those three games out and looking at the table shows that they've been just as good as the teams above them.
They have gained just one point fewer than both Ipswich and Leicester (29) across the past 13 games - six more than the next-best with 23.
An attack containing Rutter, Jaidon Anthony, Wilfried Gnonto, Dan James, Joel Piroe and Crysencio Summerville is now thriving and incredibly difficult to keep out.
Three of those names feature in the top four for big chances created in the division - such is the level of their own impact in Farke's attack-minded system.
It's hardly a surprise then to see Leeds top the charts for big chances created (37) yet sit fifth for converting those opportunities (16). The Whites rank fifth in the expected goals (xG) created charts, but jump up to 3rd for expected goals difference (xGD).
That's because the defensive side of their game catches the eye just as much. Only Leicester and Watford have allowed fewer expected goals against (xGA) this term; no side has faced fewer shots.
They sit fourth-lowest in the open play xGA, while Middlesbrough (3.03 xGA) are the only side to have conceded fewer from set-piece situations.
Such a slow start could have hindered their potential, yet Leeds seem to be continuing to grow as the weeks progress.
"After the same amount of games, we had less points than we have today," Farke said following the 0-0 draw with Sheffield Wednesday, comparing the current Leeds crop to his first Norwich title-winning side of 2018/19.
A fair comment from a manager with history of success at this level, and while he'll be hoping he hasn't left himself too much to do this time around, his Leeds side are well placed to reel in the Foxes and win the Championship title once again.
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