With a 10/1 winner in last Saturday's preview, Tom Carnduff is hoping for more success and picks out his best bets for the Premier League.
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Burnley v Southampton
- 20:00 BST on Sky Sports Premier League
This seems like the ideal fixture to unwind what will hopefully be an action-packed day in the Premier League with Burnley welcoming a struggling Southampton side who have made quite a poor start given their pre-season optimism and expectations.
The 1-0 opening day defeat to Palace will be reflected upon like a happy holiday after the 5-2 hammering by Tottenham that came eight days later. To their credit, they should have scored at least one in that trip to Selhurst Park.
The surprising element of the betting in this game is how Burnley are currently available at a best price of 23/10 when the Asian Handicap only ever so slightly favours the visitors. A close contest is expected and the hosts have found a way to grind out results under Sean Dyche's guidance.
There's a real feeling that Southampton's transfer business isn't yet complete as Ralph Hasenhuttl looks to build a squad that can push up the table, but their start to the campaign has been somewhat baffling given how strong they were post-lockdown.
Going unbeaten in their final seven games counts for little now and they're in real danger of losing their opening four competitive games this season as they visit Turf Moor. Southampton's away record was impressive last term but it needed to be considering they sat 19th in the home standings.
This should be a close contest and, dare we say it, provide little entertainment but Burnley can continue to push through their current injury problems and get three points. Under 2.5 goals sitting at an odds-on 4/6 price suggests a win to nil is likely if either side is to do it.
Taking a home win with under 2.5 goals comes out at a big price of 5/1 but the 23/10 currently available on just the win is decent enough with that safety net of it still coming in even if Southampton find the net at some point across the 90 minutes.
Chris Wood provides an intriguing bet at 15/8 to net anytime as he looks to score in a fifth consecutive Premier League game. However, with a close contest expected, the better value comes in Burnley's outright price.
Score prediction: Burnley 1-0 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Burnley to win at 23/10
- Burnley are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League meetings with Southampton (W4 D3), having lost two of their first three against them in the competition (W1).
- Southampton have only won one of their 11 top-flight away games against Burnley (D3 L7), a 1-0 win in March 1971. Indeed, Saints have never scored more than once in an away top-flight game against Burnley (6 goals).
- Burnley have played more Premier League home games against Southampton without ever suffering defeat than they have against any other side (W3 D2).
Brighton v Manchester United
- 12:30 BST on BT Sport
The main focus will be on Saturday's Premier League contest in what's the first of two meetings between these sides across a four-day period, before they go again in the Carabao Cup on Tuesday.
Manchester United bounced back from a disappointing defeat at home to Crystal Palace with a comfortable 3-0 victory over Luton in midweek but a cup win over opposition in a lower division feels like paper over the cracks for a performance that was so flat at Old Trafford.
Brighton on the other hand looked convincing in their win over Newcastle. Neal Maupay and Aaron Connolly formed a fine forward partnership with three goals between them, putting Albion in a good position to welcome Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's men.
United were dull, outthought and outfought by Palace and the 11/10 price on the double chance in Brighton's favour looks too appealing given the contrasting performances on display in that record-breaking goal-filled weekend.
The odds-on 8/11 price across the board on an away win is just too short. This is a Manchester United side who continue to struggle in the transfer window and have, once again, fallen behind their rivals in this area.
A lack of incomings has created a negative atmosphere around the club, and we eagerly await to see who United look to panic buy as the deadline approaches. This could well be a team that improves when/if recruitments arrive later in the season but for now, it's worth looking at their opponents for success.
Brighton's summer saw them bring further balance to a side who showed promise under Graham Potter last season. It's clear an area to focus on was the defence and a switch to three centre-backs shows his preference on a system, but Adam Lallana's presence adds top-quality experience in midfield while Maupay could enjoy a prolific campaign.
A much-changed side managed to see off Preston in midweek, and even in defeat by Chelsea, Brighton's 1.27 xG figure shows they could and perhaps should have picked up at least a point.
Another top-four opponent presents the opportunity to make things right and recent performances have proven they can capitalise on this sluggish United outfit. Brighton are a best price of 4/1 for victory, but the 11/10 on the double chance which provides the safety net of a draw is generous enough.
Score prediction: Brighton 1-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bet: Brighton/Draw double chance at 11/10
- Brighton have won three of their last four home league games against Manchester United, though they did lose this exact fixture 0-3 last season.
- Manchester United have won each of the last three Premier League meetings with Brighton – of all current top-flight sides, only against Leicester (4) are the Red Devils on a longer current winning run.
- Brighton have won two of their last three Premier League games (L1), as many as they had in their previous 17 (D9 L6). The Seagulls are looking to pick up back-to-back league wins for the first time since November 2019.
Crystal Palace v Everton
- 15:00 BST on Amazon Prime Video
Amazon won the 'war of the theme songs' last season with Makeba by Jain introducing their revolutionary coverage. With this slick Everton forward line and Palace's new-found ability to score, perhaps the music won't be the only entertaining part of Saturday's 3pm contest.
Palace hit three in their successful trip to Old Trafford while Everton struck five against West Brom. It was a record-breaking weekend in terms of goals scored but these two sides have demonstrated their ability to create flowing attacks - something we certainly couldn't say for the hosts last season.
Roy Hodgson's men managed only 31 goals across 38 games. It took them six games to score four goals; they've done that in their opening two fixtures this term. Everton had to wait seven games to post the six goals they currently have on their tally.
That's not to say it's going to be a complete change for Palace with goals coming in every game, but that showing against Manchester United showed they can attack and capitalise on chances. The 2.6 Expected Goals Against also highlights that there should be more than the single goal conceded at this stage.
It's also worth factoring in chances created and Palace's xG rate backing up the fact they've scored goals. The 1-0 win against Southampton should have been greater considering big chances missed from Cheikhou Kouyate and goalscorer Wilfried Zaha. Both efforts carried probability rates just shy of 50%.
We should expect a scoreline that replicates the 3-1 at Goodison Park last season as opposed to the 0-0 at Selhurst Park. Even with new signings Michy Batshuayi and Eberechi Eze on the bench, Palace seem to have shaken off their dull attacking tag - in the early stages at least.
Everton just can't stop scoring regardless of the competition and the momentum is firmly with them. Thirteen goals across their last three competitive fixtures is an impressive feat and even the top defences will struggle to keep them out. With Dominic Calvert-Lewin flying in front of goal and the wing combination of Richarlison and James Rodriguez posing significant threats, Everton's goal-scoring exploits should carry on for weeks to come.
Over 2.5 goals is at 5/4 but it's worth being braver and taking the 10/3 best price on over 3.5. Even in the two 1-0 contests we've seen involving these sides, the chances created shows that the scoreline should have been greater. Of course, there was last weekend too, and a demonstration that defence is of little priority to most teams at the moment.
Everton look good value at odds-against 23/20 for victory, with a Toffees win and over 2.5 goals in the game at 13/5. Instead, it's better going for goals and taking that above 3/1 value on four or more in the contest.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-3 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Best bet: Over 3.5 goals at 10/3
- Crystal Palace are winless in each of their last 11 Premier League games against Everton since a 3-2 win at Goodison Park in September 2014 (D6 L5), failing to score in six of those games.
- Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has scored three goals in his two league games so far this season, netting the winner in both matches. It’s just one goal fewer than he scored in 38 Premier League games last season.
- Everton are averaging 16 shots-per-game in their two Premier League games this season, with a conversion rate of 18.8%. Last season, the Toffees were averaging 12 shots-per-game, and had a conversion rate of just 9.4%.
West Brom v Chelsea
- 17:30 BST on Sky Sports Premier League
This contest has Saturday's biggest difference in the Asian Handicap market with Chelsea currently at a significant -1.5 for victory over a West Brom side who have leaked goals in their opening two fixtures - Leicester struck three before Everton hit five.
Discipline was an issue for the Baggies, among serious defensive problems, in the defeat at Everton with Kieran Gibbs being sent off and head coach Slaven Bilic also shown a red for his complaints at half-time. The midweek defeat in the Carabao Cup counted as the first of Gibbs' three-game suspension; Bilic was handed an £8,000 fine.
Gibbs' absence at left-back should mean Conor Townsend steps into defence as he has played the full 90 minutes in both of Albion's cup games this season. He's the Baggies' only other choice at left wing-back with a three at the back system now preferred. He made 27 appearances as they were promoted last season.
It really feels like the former Scunthorpe man will be thrown in at the deep end against a Chelsea side so stacked in attack. We should expect the visitors to dominate possession and enjoy the large majority of the chances; West Brom need to focus on solving those defensive problems.
West Brom will need everyone, including Townsend, to be at their very best and even then that will likely be damage limitation as opposed to getting a result. With the visitors on the front foot, there is value in looking at West Brom cards considering the fact they've seen at least one in each of their four competitive fixtures so far.
This is where we get to Townsend and the best price of 17/4 that a card for the full-back brings. Even the across the board odds of 7/2 provides appeal considering his statistics last season and the calibre of opponent he will be coming up against.
He made a total of 59 successful tackles in the Sky Bet Championship despite limited appearances. That put him 28th in this category among defenders, again an impressively high tally considering he didn't feature at all in 19 of the Baggies' league fixtures.
Perhaps crucially, he was shown three yellow cards across his last eight league fixtures. It seems that while he saw an average of 2.2 successful tackles per game, that led to those that were unsuccessful and ultimately caught the referee's attention. Against Chelsea, this is likely to be a problem.
Jonathan Moss' appointment should also bring cards. There were three yellows in Palace's 1-0 win over Southampton on opening weekend while he averaged just shy of 35 booking points per game across the 2019/20 season. We should expect a similar amount here.
Chelsea are heavy odds-on favourites for success but the best outright option is taking the visitors on the -1 handicap which provides an even money price across the board. Instead, the better value comes in backing the stand-in left-back to be shown a card at 17/4.
Score prediction: West Brom 0-3 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
- West Bromwich Albion have lost more Premier League games against Chelsea (18) than they have against any other opponent, including each of their last four in a row without scoring a single goal.
- Chelsea have won each of their last three away league games at West Brom; they have beaten them in four or more consecutive such outings twice previously – eight in a row from April 1985 to April 2011 and five between December 1964 and March 1969.
- Branislav Ivanovic made 261 Premier League appearances for Chelsea between 2008-2016, scoring 22 goals, including one against new club West Brom back in February 2014.
Odds correct at 1500 BST (24/09/20)
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