Rúben Rodrigues: Who could be the next club for Notts County's attacking midfielder?
Rúben Rodrigues might not be a name you’re familiar with - an attacking midfielder currently playing for Notts County in the National League.
You’re probably wondering why a player currently playing at non-league level is the subject of a scout report?
Well, Rodrigues has been showcasing his talent in the National League for the past year and a half. He signed for Notts County from Den Bosch who play their football in the Dutch Eerste Divisie, the second division in the Netherlands.
Despite being born just outside of Porto in Portugal, Rodrigues actually started playing football as a youth in the Netherlands and worked his way up through the lower leagues.
How good is Rúben Rodrigues?
Since moving to England, Rodrigues has been one of the standout players in the National League. He’s more accustomed to playing as an attacking midfielder but can also operate as a forward on either wing or as one of two in a strike partnership.
Notts County are tactically flexible but have tended to opt for a variation on a 3-5-2, Rodrigues being one of the two up top. He’s given a free role in the side, with his main task being to link play between the lines and create. This is where he thrives.
Often found in the half-space or causing confusion and chaos between the midfield and defence, Rodrigues is an advanced playmaker who would prosper in any team in the National League or indeed the league above.
With three assists and nine goals this season, Rodrigues is averaging a goal involvement every other game with 0.56 per 90 minutes. He’s currently only two goals behind his whole tally of 11 for last season, so getting him more advanced up the pitch is paying dividends with his goalscoring rate.
What does Rúben Rodrigues have to offer?
Most notably, Rodrigues is a standout across most metrics, particularly those looking at his ability in possession. At 43.62%, he ranks in the 100th percentile for offensive duels won, which is the best of any forward in the National league.
He also actually engages in 14.34 offensive duels per 90, the fourth most in the league. Not only does he win his attacking duels, he’s involved in a lot of them.
He’s also a high-volume ball carrier with 4.73 dribbles per 90, ranking him in the 90th percentile among the league’s forwards. He uses that ball carrying and offensive duel ability to draw fouls. Rodrigues has suffered on average more than two fouls per game, which is incredibly valuable for any side.
As mentioned before, Rodrigues is one of the main creators at County. Although both his expected assists and shot assists per 90 have both dropped slightly from last year, that's perhaps because he’s playing in a more advanced role. Comparing those metrics to the rest of the forwards in the league, he still shows up very well in the 67th and 94th percentiles respectively.
In an attacking sense the Portuguese player stands out, particularly for someone who isn’t an out-and-out striker. He’s accumulated 5.42 NPxG (Non-Penalty Expected Goals) so far this season, but has actually scored eight goals, meaning he’s overperforming to the tune of +2.58 NPxG.
This is by no means unsustainable, but for someone with a goal conversion rate of 15.39%, we would expect his goalscoring performance to level off closer to the expected rate come the end of the season.
Out of possession, Rodrigues does his fair share of work - 4.44 possession-adjusted (PAdj) interceptions per 90 ranks him among the best in the league.
As he floats in between the midfield and defensive lines of the opposition rather than being an out and out focal point, Rodrigues is able to drop deeper and help with defensive actions in the midfield. This makes him a useful weapon out of possession as well.
Who should sign Rúben Rodrigues?
The hardest part of scouting is assessing a player’s current and potential ability level. Sadly it isn’t as easy as Football Manager make it out to be. You have to watch a player over a period of weeks and in different scenarios which is even harder when you’re assessing a player who is in one of the strongest sides in the league.
Another issue is that Notts County are a financially well-backed club and can offer better wages than most of the teams in League Two. Couple that with the fact that they’re aiming for a return to the Football League as soon as possible, this means League Two sides probably aren’t going to be able to attract him.
Fortunately, Rúben Rodrigues is good enough to play at League One level. So which clubs might be interested in taking the 25-year-old attacker?
Rotherham United have been interested in his services. They, similar to County, normally play a variation of a 3-5-2, be that a flat three in midfield or with an attacking midfielder. Here Rodrigues would fit into the system as either the attacking midfielder or as one of the two forwards and offer something different to what Rotherham have already.
I do, however, have question marks about Rotherham’s playing style and if Rodrigues would fit. He plays for a side who like to have the ball with 59.1% possession, the highest in their league, compared to Rotherham who have just 49.3% possession and rank 14th in League One. Rotherham also play 53.37 long balls per game, vs Notts County’s 46.4.
The Millers also play with greater intensity with 7.19 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) which ranks them first in League One, compared to Notts County’s 9.17, who rank 17th in the National League.
Given Rotherham’s more direct, pressing style I don’t feel it would be the best move for Rodrigues.
A better suited destination in League One is MK Dons. They play a variation of the 3-4-3, either with two inside forwards, or two out-and-out wide men. Rodrigues would be comfortable in any of these forward roles.
Given the interest around MK Dons’ star attacker Scott Twine, Rodrigues would represent a good replacement. Twine is one of their primary creators, he operates mainly in the left half-space, and may need replacing should a Championship club come calling. Rodrigues should be able to slot straight in and fill that void if needed.
MK Dons play a similar style of football to Notts County as well, with more of a possession-based approach with less pressing. Ultimately this would suit Rodrigues as he’s already accustomed to a similar style of play.
Whatever happens with Rúben Rodrigues, he’s only got 18 months left on his deal with Notts County, and he’s too good to be playing in the National League.
MOST READ FOOTBALL
FOOTBALL TIPS
