Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Vinicius Jr to score anytime at 11/8 (bet365)
1pt Dani Carvajal to be carded at 7/2 (Unibet)
Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig (agg: 1-0)
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
TV channel: TNT Sports 2
Home 8/15 | Draw 18/5 | Away 17/4
Real Madrid were resolute in their first leg win over RB Leipzig, limiting their hosts to 1.37 xGF and taking the lead thanks to a stellar strike from Brahim Diaz.
Carlo Ancelotti's side are unbeaten in 31 matches across all competitions (in 90 minutes), a run that highlights their excellent consistency, and, why they are 9/2 second favourites to win the Champions League.
RB Leipzig have it all to do here, but aren't good travellers. They have won three of their last 10 away matches in all comps, losing five.
What are the best bets?
The dynamic of this tie should suit Real Madrid perfectly, with Leipzig having to go for the win, which should provide Madrid with plenty of space to operate in possession and on the counter.
A Real win and both teams scoring did appeal, but at 11/8 I can't let VINICIUS JR TO SCORE ANYTIME go unbacked.
Ancelotti's side are unbeaten in 16 home games across all competitions this season, winning 14 and failing to score on just one occasion, netting 39 times.
Madrid should add multiple goals to that tally here, and Vinicius looks nicely priced to be one of the scorers on the night.
The Brazilian, fresh off a weekend brace against Valencia, has scored eight times in 11 games since returning from injury. In La Liga he's netted five times in eight appearances since regaining fitness, averaging 0.65 xG per 90.
Vinicius had four shots in the first leg equating to 0.61 xG, so with Leipzig likely playing in a more open fashion as they attempt to get back in the tie, Madrid's star winger should again get chances.
Another bet I like is DANI CARVAJAL TO BE CARDED at 7/2.
That price looks big, and looks to be based on his domestic fouls and card averages. In La Liga, Carvajal is averaging just 0.9 fouls per 90 but in the Champions League his average is more than double, at 2.0 fouls per game.
He was carded in the first leg, making four fouls in Leipzig, and that was down to his direct opponent Xavi Simons, who is a tricky and direct winger. Given the pair are likely to duel it out again, and the visitors will be playing on the front foot, Carvajal could be in for another tough evening.
- Vinicius Jr to score anytime
- Dani Carvajal to be carded
- Jude Bellingham 2+ fouls committed
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Vinicius will be a huge threat throughout this game, while Xavi Simons will cause all sorts of problems for Dani Caravajal, who looks a great price to be booked.
Jude Bellingham loves to get stuck in and will be tasked with some defensive duties as Leipzig push hard. He has averaged 1.4 fouls per 90 this season so looks good to pick a few up here.
Team news
Jude Bellingham will play here, although he is one booking away from a Champions League ban. Eduardo Camavinga is in the same boat but is a nailed-on starter regardless, and Ancelotti's only three injury concerns for the second leg are ACL victims David Alaba, Thibaut Courtois and Eder Militao, the latter two of whom are on track to return next month.
As for RB Leipzig, head coach Marco Rose will be forced into an alteration due to suspension, as French defender Mohamed Simakan was booked for the third time in the tournament in the first leg and must sit out the trip to the Spanish capital.
Simakan started on the bench against Bochum anyway, and with Lukas Klostermann - Leipzig's only injury victim - still working his way back from a hip concern, Castello Lukeba and Willi Orban should form an untouched defensive barrier in front of Gulacsi, only just back from an abdominal strain himself.
Midfield fulcrum Xaver Schlager returns from a Bundesliga suspension of his own, though, and the Austria international should earn an immediate midfield recall over countryman Nicolas Seiwald.
Predicted line-ups
Real Madrid: Lunin; Carvajal, Tchouameni, Rudiger, Mendy; Valverde, Camavinga, Kroos; Bellingham; Rodrygo, Vinicius Jr
RB Leipzig: Gulacsi; Henrichs, Orban, Lukeba, Raum; Olmo, Haidara, Schlager, Simons; Openda, Sesko
Match facts
- Real Madrid have won two of their three games against RB Leipzig in the UEFA Champions League (L1), while the only previous meeting between the two sides at the Santiago Bernabeu ended in a 2-0 win for the home side (in the group stage in 2022-23).
- This will be just RB Leipzig’s third away game against Spanish opposition in European competition – though they were beaten on their most recent trip (2-0 v Real Madrid), they did win at Real Sociedad in the UEFA Europa League play-off round in 2021-22 (3-1).
- Real Madrid have only failed to progress from one of their last 20 two-legged ties in the UEFA Champions League knockout stages after winning the first leg, with that only instance coming against Ajax in 2018-19 in the round of 16 (won 2-1 away in the first leg, lost 4-1 in the second leg).
- RB Leipzig haven’t won any of their last six games in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League (D1 L5), failing to score in five of those six. They’ve been eliminated on the last two occasions when failing to win the first leg in a knockout stage tie in the competition, with both of those coming in the round of 16 (v Liverpool in 2020-21 and Manchester City in 2022-23).
- Real Madrid have won all seven of their games in the UEFA Champions League this season. Should they win the second leg against RB Leipzig, it will mark their longest ever winning run in a single campaign in the competition (also won their first seven in 2014-15, under Carlo Ancelotti).
- Real Madrid (15) and RB Leipzig (14) are the two teams who have had the most shots following high turnovers in the UEFA Champions League this season. Indeed, Brahim Díaz’s opening goal in the reverse fixture in Germany came after a sequence in which Real Madrid recovered the ball within 40 metres of the Leipzig goal.
- Real Madrid goalkeeper Andriy Lunin made nine saves against RB Leipzig last time out, as the German side were held goalless. Only once previously have they failed to score in consecutive UEFA Champions League games, with that also coming in the round of 16 (v Liverpool in 2020-21, lost 4-0 on aggregate).
- RB Leipzig striker Benjamin Sesko had six shots without scoring in the first leg against Real Madrid, with three of those defined by Opta as ‘big chances’. Should the 20-year-old find the net in this match, he’d be the youngest visiting player to score in a UEFA Champions League knockout stage game at the Santiago Bernabeu since Leroy Sané in March 2015 (for FC Schalke 04 as a 19-year-old).
- Vinícius Júnior and Brahim Díaz both completed six dribbles in the first leg against RB Leipzig – the first time a pair of Real Madrid teammates have completed six or more in the same UEFA Champions League game since May 2017 v Atlético de Madrid (Luka Modric 9, Isco 8 and Karim Benzema 7).
- 24% of Toni Kroos’ passes for Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League this season have broken at least one opposition line (105/436); the highest percentage of any midfielder with at least 25 passes in the competition in 2023-24. Indeed, Rodri (128) is the only player who has made more total line-breaking passes than the German (105) in the current tournament
Odds correct 1500 GMT (04/03/24)
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