Real Madrid vs Man City betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Vinicius Jr to score anytime at 23/10 (Betfair, bet365)
1pt Vinicius Jr to be carded at 7/2 (bet365)
0.5pt Vinicius Jr to score and be carded at 13.6/1 (bet365)
This will be the third season in a row that Real Madrid and Manchester City do battle in the Champions League knockouts. The winners of the previous two have gone on to lift the trophy.
This promises to be a cracking two-legged affair, with Madrid red hot and City hitting top gear, with the quality on show likely to trump all the other quarter-final ties.
Last season these two shared a 1-1 draw in Spain before City romped to a 4-0 win in England, but this should be much closer given the improvements Carlo Ancelotti's side have made over the last eight months.
Los Blancos are unbeaten in 35 matches (90 minutes), have a wealth of options to choose from for their starting XI, and are the fresher side. The Spaniards have played once since the international break while City have played three times.
What are the best bets?
I give Madrid a great chance of picking up a first leg win here, but I'm instead drawn to one player for my best bets - VINICIUS JR.
The Brazilian has been red hot in front of goal and in front of the referee of late, and I want to attack both angles on Tuesday.
VINICIUS JR TO SCORE ANYTIME looks a solid bet at 23/10, with the Madrid forward having netted 12 times in his last 14 outings for Madrid.
Vini scored six in his last four prior to the international break, averaging 1.09 xG per 90 in that run, and while he faces stiffer opposition in this game, we are getting a bigger price because of it.
It is also worth noting that Kyle Walker, who is usually the man tasked with dealing with pacey livewires such as Vinicius and Kylian Mbappe, is missing for City, only increasing the chances of the Brazilian winger having a say in proceedings.
I'll also happily have a second play on VINICIUS JR TO BE CARDED at 7/2 given the hot-headed nature of the superstar.
He is a player always targeted given his game changing ability, and that more often than not drags him into a physical tussle. Vinicius isn't shy about dishing out some heavy tackles and some post-tackle handbags, meaning he's always ripe for a card.
He's been booked six times in his last 14 matches, including in both legs of Madrid's victory against RB Leipzig in the last round of the Champions League. Vinicius is a cynical fouler, a delay of game specialist and a back-chatter to the referee, so at 7/2 chancing him to find his name in card-happy referee Francois Letexier's book appeals.
Combining VINICIUS TO SCORE AND BE CARDED looks worthwhile too at over 13/1, with the double having landed in all of his last four matches for Madrid. Over the last two seasons (70 games) this bet has landed 10 times which would give a blanket price of 6/1, meaning the price on Tuesday looks big for a repeat.
BuildABet @ 55/1
- Real Madrid to win
- Vinicius Jr to score anytime
- Vinicius Jr to be carded
- Rico Lewis to be carded
Real will be an extremely tough test for City, especially given their freshness having had over a week off. Defensive absentees leave the reigning champions vulnerable and Madrid look well placed to get a first leg lead.
Rico Lewis is likely to step in at right back with Walker out and will have his hands full with Vinicius Jr who is drawing 2.3 fouls per 90 this season.
Team news
Only goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois and defender David Alaba are missing for Real Madrid, who welcomed back Eder Militao after the international break.
Vinicius Junior will be back in the starting line-up following a domestic suspension, and he'll form a threatening front three alongside Jude Bellingham and Rodrygo.
Manchester City have serious defensive injuries heading to the Bernabeu, with Kyle Walker and Nathan Ake set to miss this first leg. Josko Gvardiol picked up a knock at the weekend too meaning he is touch and go for this game.
Manuel Akanji could again start at left back, with Rico Lewis at right back. Ederson is fit again and will start between the sticks, while both Bernardo Silva and Phil Foden, who were rested at the weekend, should both return to the XI.
Predicted line-ups
Real Madrid: Lunin; Carvajal, Rudiger, Militao, Mendy; Valverde, Tchouameni, Kroos; Bellingham; Vinicius Jr, Rodrygo
Man City: Ederson; Lewis, Stones, Dias, Akanji; Silva, Rodri, De Bruyne; Doku, Haaland, Foden
Match facts
- Real Madrid and Manchester City will face off in the UEFA Champions League knockout stages for a third successive season, after meeting in the semi-finals in 2021-22 and 2022-23. There were 17 goals scored across those previous four meetings, at an average of 4.3 per game (seven for Real Madrid, 10 for Man City).
- Real Madrid have only won one of their last six UEFA Champions League matches against Manchester City (D1 L4), while they have conceded an average of 1.7 goals per game in the competition against the Citizens (17 goals conceded in 10 games), their most against a side they have faced 5+ times.
- This match will see the two managers with the most wins in UEFA Champions League history going head-tohead, in the form of Real Madrid’s Carlo Ancelotti (113) and Manchester City’s Pep Guardiola (109).
- After losing his first two meetings with Real Madrid boss Carlo Ancelotti (in the 2013-14 semi-finals of this competition, while in charge of FC Bayern München), Pep Guardiola has only lost one of his last eight games against Ancelotti across all competitions (W6 D1) – all of which have been in charge of current club Manchester City.
- Manchester City are on a run of 10 consecutive wins in the UEFA Champions League, with only Bayern Munich having a longer streak in the competition (15 from September 2019-November 2020). They are also on the second longest unbeaten run in the UEFA Champions League (21 matches), after Manchester United (25 from September 2007-May 2009); indeed, the last team to beat them were Real Madrid in the semi-final return leg in May 2022 (3-1 a.e.t.).
- Real Madrid have only been behind on the scoreboard for 26 minutes in the UEFA Champions League this season – the fewest of any side. Manchester City, meanwhile, are the team that have been ahead for the most minutes in the competition this term (428 minutes).
- Manchester City’s Rodri (137) and Real Madrid’s Toni Kroos (128) are the two players who have made the most line-breaking passes in the UEFA Champions League this season, while Kroos is also the midfielder with the best pass completion rate under pressure in the competition this term (95% - 352/371).
- Since the start of the 2021-22 campaign, Real Madrid’s Vinícius Júnior has been directly involved in more goals than any other player in the UEFA Champions League (27 – 14 goals, 13 assists). In the same period, he also leads all players in the competition for completed dribbles (97) and progressive carries (373).
- Real Madrid are one of only two sides – along with current club Manchester City – that Erling Haaland has played against more than once without scoring in the UEFA Champions League (two games against each). His seven total shots and five shots on target against Real Madrid are both his most without scoring against an opponent in the competition.
- Jude Bellingham has either scored (4) or assisted (4) in all six of his UEFA Champions League games for Real Madrid. The only player to do so in his first seven games for a club in the competition is Sébastien Haller, while playing for Ajax in 2021-22 (11 goals, two assists).
Odds correct at 1300 BST (05/04/24)
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