Football betting tips: Champions League
2.5pts Over 3.5 cards at 17/20 (BetVictor)
1pt Alvaro Carreras to be carded at 16/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 5/2
1pt Jonathan Tah to be carded at 4/1 (Betway) - min price 5/2
It's no secret that Real Madrid always raise their game for the Champions League. The 15-time winners - that's eight more than anyone other club - undoubtedly prioritise success in Europe over domestic trophies, and this weekend saw them lost at struggling Mallorca to gift Barcelona a seven-point lead in La Liga.
They had their attentions set on this game, make no mistake about it, and after aa stellar performance over two legs against Manchester City, people are starting to believe that Alvaro Arbeloa could be the new Zinedine Zidane.
Bayern Munich thrashed Atalanta 10-2 over two legs in the last 16, and pretty much have the Bundesliga title wrapped up, so were able to heavily rotate at the weekend, with none of Harry Kane, Michael Olise, Konrad Laimer, Jamal Musiala, Dayot Upamecano or Alphonso Davies in the starting XI in the win at Freiburg.
The Bavarians should be fresh for this then, and at 6/5, they did tempt me, especially with Thiabaut Courtois injured. But, Madrid do have Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham back available which leaves me happy to avoid the 1X2, for all I do think Bayern are the better team.
We have what looks to be, on paper anyway, an excellent referee appointment for this first leg, with Englishman Michael Oliver on the whistle and in scintilating form. Fresh from a six-card game in Manchester City's 4-0 win over Liverpool in the FA Cup, Oliver has enjoyed flashing the cards in Europe this term, averaging 4.4 cards per game and going OVER 3.5 CARDS in six of 10.
Across his last 10 games in all competitions Oliver has flashed 4.8 cards per game, covering the proposed bet in eight of those, and with the stakes higher at this stage of the competition, the fact this will be a very competitive game and with a number of excellent foul-drawers on show, cards should flow.
Real Madrid have seen Over 3.5 cards in seven of their 12 Champions League games this season, with it landing in six of Bayern's 10, while both sides rank highly for cards collected, Real at 2.25 per game and Bayern at 1.90.
We should also throw a dart or two at player cards, starting with JONATHAN TAH TO BE CARDED at 4/1. The big German centre-back is fresh from a card in the Bundesliga at the weekend and has six to his name in the German top flight, but he is far more foul-prone in European competition.
Tah has committed an average of 2.07 fouls per 90 in the Champions League this season and has somehow been carded just once, but I think he can double his tally in Madrid, especially given the players he'll be up against and the tactics used by both sides.
Bayern will play a high-line and an aggressive press, which spells real danger for Tah up against Vinicius Jr and Kylian Mbappe. It seems very realistic that Tah gets caught out with a through ball, or presses aggressively into one of the two as they are about to receive the ball, and with Oliver on the whistle, Tah looks a cracking price to have his name taken.
We'll also back Real Madrid left-back ALVARO CARRERAS TO BE CARDED at 16/5, a price which looks huge given his record and opponent. The Spaniard has been carded four times in eight Champions League appearances this season at an average of 0.51 cards per 90 and will be tasked with keeping Michael Olise at bay.
The former Crystal Palace winger has drawn 1.72 fouls per 90 this season across all competitions, and will prove a major handful for the rash full-back.
Odds correct at 12:15 BST (06/04/26)
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