Football betting tips: Champions League
3pts PSG to win at 3/4 (William Hill, Betway)
0.5pt PSG to win to nil at 14/5 (BetVictor)
1pt Dominik Szoboszlai to be carded at 4/1 (bet365)
Things went from bad to worst at the weekend for Liverpool, who now face the prospect of a trophy-less 25/26 season followed by a Champions-League-less 26/27 campaign. The pressure is ramping up on Arne Slot.
The Reds were really poor in the FA Cup against Manchester City, losing tamely 4-0 as they struggled to deal with the pace, intensity and directness of Pep Guardiola's side - which does not bode well at all for a trip to Paris.
While the Reds are lacking confidence, PSG will be full of it after dismantling Chelsea 8-2 on aggregate in the last round of the Champions League, while Luis Enrique's side also have a rest advantage ahead of this clash.
PSG played on Friday night, rotating accordingly in a 3-1 win over Toulouse, while Liverpool played a full strength team and were given the runaround at City a day later.
While perhaps less important to this first leg, it is worth noting that PSG don't play this weekend after their game against Lens was moved to allow them more time to prepare for the second leg, while Liverpool have a huge home game against Fulham as they bid to finish in the top four (or even five) of the Premier League.
Sometimes the most obvious bet is the best bet here and for me that's to back PSG TO WIN at 3/4. They are the better team, they play with more energy and exuberance, and more importantly they are extremely consistent.
Liverpool have been consistent too away from home - consistently poor. It's four defeats in their last five away games, including against Wolves in the league and Galatasaray in the Champions League. The Reds will just be hoping to still be in the tie ahead of the second leg at Anfield.
Slot's men are all at sea defensively, conceding 1.60 xGA per game on their travels, so it's hard to see them keeping PSG at bay, especially without Alisson between the sticks.
Last season, while Liverpool won 1-0 in Paris, they were absolutely hammered and had the Brazilian stopper to thank for keeping a clean sheet as they lost the shot count 27-2, shot on target count 10-1 and the xG count 1.78-0.27. It was one of the great smash-and-grabs in recent memory.
That team had a steeliness to it, this version doesn't. If anything they have gone the other way and have become extremely soft and easy to play against, either way, a home win rates value at the prices, especially as Manchester City went off the same price at home to this Liverpool team at the weekend.
I also think a PSG WIN TO NIL is worth a small bet too given how toothless and out-of-sync this Reds attack looks, and how the team in general may struggle to progress the ball against PSG's press and energy.
The Reds mustered just 0.66 non-penalty xG against a defensively vulnerable City side last time out, and 1.03 xG against Brighton before that. At Galatasaray they fired a blank and accumulated just 1.31 xG - this is not a vintage Liverpool attack.
PSG are gettable, but I'm not sure this Liverpool team have the tools to get at them, so at nearly 3/1 I'll take a small swing on a home win with a shutout.
Given the referee appointment I also have to take DOMINIK SZOBOSZLAI TO BE CARDED at 4/1. The man with the whistle is Spaniard Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, and he's averaged 5.6 cards per game in the Champions League this season.
You'd imagine given the energy PSG have in midfield that Szoboszlai will be deployed against them to do a lot of Liverpool's running in the engine room, which make him ripe for a card. He has 10 to his name this season across all competitions and is a man for the big occasions.
I suspect he'll be chasing shadows for most of the game due to a lack of help in the middle, or he plays on the right side of a 4-2-2-2 and has to contend with Nuno Mendes and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia - either way his price looks a touch big.
Odds correct at 21:00 BST (06/04/26)
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