Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Bayern Munich to score 2+ goals at 17/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Luis Diaz to be carded at 24/5 (William Hill)
1pt Jonathan Tah to be carded at 18/5 (William Hill)
1pt Joshua Kimmich to be carded at 17/5 (William Hill)
1pt Michael Olise to be carded at 9/2 (William Hill)
Reigning champions PSG have waltzed into the semi-finals of the Champions League after pummelling Premier League 'giants' Chelsea and Liverpool 12-2 on aggregate over two ties.
We know that both the Blues and the Reds aren't the powerhouses they have been, but the manner of both victories highlights the level of Luis Enrique's side as they aim to become just the second side to retain Ol' Big Ears in the Champions League era.
Standing in their way is a Bayern Munich juggernaut who have destroyed every team in their path.
Vincent Kompany's side are a relentless goalscoring machine who create an abundance of chances in every single game, and have already beaten PSG in their own backyard this season during the league phase of this competition.
They beat Real Madrid 6-4 on aggregate in the last round, and Atalanta 10-1 on aggregate before that, with the Bavarian giants scoring 38 goals in 12 UCL games this season at an average of 3.17 per game.
Kompany's side know only one way to play: ATTACK. That means we should expect goals here, likely at both ends, but I quite like the price available for BAYERN MUNICH TO SCORE 2+ GOALS at 17/20.
It's a bet that has landed in 11 of 12 Champions League games and in 46 of 49 games across all competitions this season. That's an insane strike-rate.
PSG have been far from water-tight defensively, especially at home in Europe where they have kept just two clean sheets in seven and conceded multiple times on four occasions, including in their meeting with Bayern.
That game is worth revisiting, as the Germans were excellent in a 2-1 win. They raced into a 2-0 lead after 32 minutes but had Luis Diaz sent off on the stroke of half-time which was probably the only reason they didn't score in the second half.
A repeat could be on the cards, though with Bayern's high-press I wouldn't be surprised to see PSG net a couple too.
Fouls should be on the menu given how intensely Bayern press and how much transitional football we should witness, and so cards should follow. Referee Sandro Scharer has the whistle and he's brandished 3.67 cards per game in the Champions League this season and has a 3.90 career average.
We have a quartet of Bayern players to focus on, quite simply because PSG are the cleanest team in the competition, collecting an average of just 0.71 cards per game compared to Bayern's 2.17, with the German's pressing the main reason for this.
JONATHAN TAH is the first man up for us and we're taking him at 18/5 TO BE CARDED in Paris. The German centre-back has been foul-heavy in the Champions League this season, averaging 1.87 per 90 on the continent, while across all competitions he's collected eight cards at an average of 0.25 per 90, with him collecting a yellow at the Bernabeu in the last round.
Ousmane Dembele is more of a false nine than an out-and-out striker with the way he comes to link up the play and Tah will be following him into precarious positions, while also being left isolated in the left channel which spells trouble against either Bradley Barcola or Desire Doue.
We'll also chance LUIS DIAZ TO BE CARDED too at 24/5, the man who was sent off in the last meeting. The Colombian is a tenacious presser of the ball and as well as being tasked with creating in forward areas, he will also take some responsibility of keeping tabs on PSG's attacking right-back Achraf Hakimi.
He has been carded nine times this season at an average of 0.27 per 90 and as the stakes increase, he looks a live candidate to be a bit overzealous in his press.
JOSHUA KIMMICH TO BE CARDED is also making the staking plan. Bayern's midfield maestro has collected seven cards across the Bundesliga and Champions League this season at an average of 0.21 per 90 but this bet comes alive given he'll be up against an excellent card-drawing midfield.
At least one opposing central midfielder has been booked in nine of PSG's 14 Champions League games, and with Aleksandar Pavlovic much shorter at 9/4 despite a much worse card record (just two this season), Kimmich looks worth chancing.
Finally, and yes, it is another Bayern player given how press-happy and card-happy they are, we're backing MICHAEL OLISE TO BE CARDED at 9/2.
The French winger is the joint-most carded Bayern player this season across league and Champions League matches this season, picking up 12 in total at an average of 0.30 per 90.
That alone makes the price on offer here massive, as does the fact he'll be pressing the rapid PSG full-back Nuno Mendes, and like his teammate Luis Diaz, has a job on his hands from a defensive perspective.
The card four-fold is a best price 200/1 with bet365 for those who want to take that big swing.
Odds correct at 16:00 BST (27/04/26)
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