Premier League title race odds and probabilities: Manchester City to hold out lingering Liverpool
With Sunday's clash ending all-square, Manchester City are in pole position to retain their title. Liam Kelly looks at both them and Liverpool from a data perspective.
Albeit skewed by matches played, Manchester City appeared to have a Premier League defence all-but wrapped up when 14 points clear of Liverpool at one point this season.
Now, with seven games remaining, the title hangs firmly in the balance — City a single point clear of Liverpool after an incredible game that ended in a 2-2 draw between the pair on Sunday.
Sky Bet's odds and the Infogol model's probabilities also predict an exciting end to the 2021/22 campaign, although neither team represent value at the prices.
📊 Latest Premier League title percentages from Infogol:
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) April 10, 2022
🔵 Manchester City - 66%
🔴 Liverpool - 34%#MCILIV pic.twitter.com/JxxvYQaUMW
Premier League title odds (via Sky Bet)
- Manchester City - 4/9 (69%)
- Liverpool - 13/8 (34%)
Odds correct at 1900 (10/04/22)
Clearly, City and Liverpool have been a standout pair in the Premier League, albeit in different ways.
Pep Guardiola's side have again been machine-like in their process, limiting opponents to an average of just 0.73 expected goals against (xGA) per game in the league this season, setting an excellent foundation to record consistent winning sequences.
Going forward, City have averaged 2.42 expected goals for (xGA) per game. That is obviously an impressive number, continuing to create good chances in matches — a potent mix when factoring in their defensive solidity.
Missed opportunities, however, has been the catalyst behind dropped points lately. City failed to score against Palace despite racking up 2.25 xG, and had the chances to beat both Tottenham and Southampton in failing to collect three points.
After dispatching Burnley with ease at the weekend, it will be interesting to see if that trait rears its ugly head again in the run-in.
Manchester City and Liverpool have been a class apart in the Premier League this season, maintaining a chasm between their 10-game xGF and xGA rolling averages.
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) March 22, 2022
Will City hold on and defend their crown? pic.twitter.com/cY4eEy4gAX
Liverpool, on the other hand, have no such problems in that area. Jürgen Klopp's side have been an incredible side going forward this term, scoring 77 times and averaging 2.69 xGF per game across their 30 matches prior to the head-to-head.
Also capable of running up a sequence of wins — winning 10 straight before the Etihad draw — the Reds' methods feel a little less sustainable than City's.
After all, controlled chaos is still chaos.
Despite averaging an outstanding 0.99 xGA per game during a demanding season, there are pressure points in Liverpool's defence that have been exposed by the likes of Nottingham Forest, Arsenal, West Ham and Watford recently.
With some difficult matches in the offing, any kind of dip in their attacking level could end a title push.
Fixture list could still decide the Premier League
Sunday's 2-2 draw at the Etihad means it's as you were in terms of the position of both teams, putting all the emphasis on the remaining fixtures to determine where the Premier League title will go.
Both teams will be expected to win all seven games, which is far easier said than done. City, however, have the best chance to do so based on the forecasted finishing position of their opponents.
Manchester City's remaining fixtures:
- Brighton (h), Watford (h), Leeds (a), Newcastle (h), West Ham (a), Aston Villa (h), *Wolves (a)
Liverpool's remaining fixtures:
- Manchester United (h), Everton (h), Newcastle (a), Tottenham (h), Southampton (a), Wolves (h), *Aston Villa (a)
*Date for rearranged fixture tbc
After Sunday's draw, City's opponents have an average forecasted finishing position of 12.7, while Liverpool's schedule makes up an average of 10.4, facing Manchester United and Tottenham in their run-in.
According to the Infogol model, Pep's squad will accrue the most xPoints from those fixtures. Klopp's men aren't far behind on the same metric.
The head-to-head was a show of the best players and best teams on the planet going toe-to-toe, but it is now down to results against 'the rest' to determine the destination of the 21/22 Premier League title.
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