Wednesday Premier League betting preview and tips

Recommended bets: Premier League

1pt Crystal Palace to beat Tottenham at 24/5 - have beaten Chelsea, Arsenal & Liverpool during recent run; Spurs suffered big blow at the weekend

2pts second half most goals in Arsenal v Leicester at evens - expect a low-key beginning before the home side dismantle a poor defence

1pt no goalscorer in Boro v Sunderland at 9/1 - the obvious call but one which is plainly overpriced

Crystal Palace v Tottenham (2000 BST, Sky Sports 1)

April 25, 2016: Spurs’ title hopes are effectively ended by a 1-1 draw at home to West Brom.

A year and a day later and it could be a similar tale just a matter of miles away when they head to Selhurst Park to take on a red-hot Crystal Palace side.

With this preview being written before Chelsea’s game with Southampton on Tuesday, Spurs trail the Blues by four points with six games to play having reduced the deficit from 10 over the past few weeks.

However, now they must not only face a Palace team who have won six and drawn one of their last eight games but also deal with a mentally crushing defeat to Chelsea in Saturday’s FA Cup semi-final.

With Chelsea having wobbled and also fielding a team missing three regulars in Hazard, Costa and Cahill, all the talk was about Spurs heading into that one.

But they blew their chance. They didn’t play particularly badly but defensively were certainly below the high standards they have set for much of this season. 

They conceded two silly fouls which led to goals from the ensuing set-plays and also left Hazard unmarked on the edge of their own box for another. For all the post-match comments of having no chance of stopping Nemanja Matic’s wonderful strike for the fourth goal, they were no doubt the architects of their own downfall.

How Spurs  respond will obviously be key and it could be they bounce back impressively but, given the prices, I won’t be backing them to find out.

Palace simply have to be the call here at close to 5/1 to win the game.

It’s not as if their six recent wins have come against shoddy opposition with Chelsea, Arsenal and, most recently, Liverpool among their victims.

In all three of those games they enjoyed less than 28 per cent of possession but that just goes to show what a fine job Sam Allardyce has done in shoring up the Eagles’ defence.

Mamadou Sakho has attracted the most plaudits and the on-loan Liverpool defender will return for this one having been forced to miss Sunday’s return to Anfield.

Holding midfielder Luka Milivojevic has not had as many headlines but has also played a key role since his January arrival, while further forward Yohan Cabaye and Christian Benteke have both returned to the form we’ve seen in the past.

Fair play to the much-maligned Allardyce. His ‘guarantee’ against relegation looks set to remain very much in place – it’s hard to see 38 points not being enough to stay up (Palace also have the best goal difference in the bottom half which is effectively an extra point).

He has also called things perfectly. Upon his arrival he warned it would take time but vowed results would come in March and April. And that they have. In some style.

The main worry with backing Palace is that having hit the 38-point mark, there’s a bit of a let-up in their level of performance. However, I’m sure Allardyce will have done his best to ensure that doesn’t happen, hammering home the fact that Palace are still far from mathematically safe.

In any case, I’m hardly suggesting you lump the house on Palace but I do feel there’s good value in their price which is at least worth a nibble.

During their recent hot streak, they’ve won three and drawn one on home soil, the three victories coming without conceding.

With the likes of Harry Kane and Dele Alli in their ranks, Spurs will doubtless test their new-found defensive resolve but with a vociferous, intense crowd behind them Palace have to be worth a bet at the price.

Prediction: Crystal Palace 2-1 Spurs (AS)

Opta facts:

o Crystal Palace have lost each of their last three league games against Tottenham; they haven’t lost four successive games since their first five encounters with Spurs in the top-flight (Aug 1969 – Sept 1971). 

o After failing to win 11 successive top-flight London derbies (D2 L9), Crystal Palace have won their last two - they’ve never won three successive London derbies in the Premier League. 

o Tottenham haven’t won an away top-flight London derby since their last visit to Selhurst Park in January 2016, failing to win each of the last four trips in London (D2 L2). 

o Harry Kane has scored 18 goals in 24 London derbies in the Premier League – the Spurs striker has the best goals per game ratio in history in such derbies (0.75 goals per game) of players to play in five or more. 

o After failing to score in his first three Premier League appearances in 2016-17, Harry Kane has scored 20 goals in 21 matches in the competition for Spurs and converted 29% of his total shots. 

o Mauricio Pochettino has seen his Tottenham side win seven successive league games in a run starting two months before the date of this match (February 26). This is his best-ever winning run as a manager in league competition. 

o After losing his first three home matches in charge, Sam Allardyce is unbeaten in his last four at Selhurst Park (W3 D1), with the Eagles keeping a clean sheet in each of those victories. 

o Tottenham have won consecutive away Premier League games for the third time this season, but haven’t managed to win three in a row since February 2016

Arsenal v Leicester (1945)

It’s possible to view this game as totally inconsequential, given that Arsenal will surely finish sixth and that Leicester have pretty much completed their revised target of survival following the dismissal of Claudio Ranieri.

Arsenal remain on course for another FA Cup – albeit Chelsea stand in their way – while Leicester’s Champions League dream is over, so in terms of incentive it’s difficult to see where the edge is.

However, the Gunners have performed enough spring Houdini acts through the years to believe that a top-four finish remains within reach and that, coupled with Leicester’s generally poor away form, means the home side should oblige at what doesn’t look an unreasonable 8/13.

With Arsene Wenger’s future dominating the build-up to every game, Arsenal have at least managed to emerge from a period of abject failure with some better displays at the Emirates, where they twice fought back to draw with Manchester City before three second-half goals saw them beat West Ham with a degree of ease.

And it’s the second half which offers the best route to a bet here, with the possibility of a fairly low-key atmosphere helping support the case for a slow-burner, which will surely spring into life at some stage given that both outfits can display a slapdash approach for football’s dark art: defending.

All three goals in Arsenal’s FA Cup victory over Man City came after the hour mark, the first of three against West Ham came on 58 minutes, and even Lincoln held out until the stroke of half-time. 

There have been early goals, but under Wednesday’s circumstances there’s a straightforward case for the second half at the very least producing more than the first, which can be backed at the stock price of evens – one which fails to consider the prospect of a subdued opening.

Both league meetings between these sides last season saw more goals after the break and it’s hard to envisage a repeat of August’s nil-nil feeler, given that a draw does neither side any favours in their arbitrary aims of a top-four and a top-half finish respectively.

Plus, Leicester and their open approach on the road will be without captain Wes Morgan while if Wenger does persist with his three-man defence there are likely to be opportunities for the visitors to use their width and get the Arsenal men turning, which so often proves the key to unlocking what remains a fragile set-up.

In other words, expect goals here but it’s that first half-hour which might see a tentative Arsenal struggle to get to grips with the task at hand, thereby putting us in a position from which to relax and enjoy a glut of second-half goals.

Prediction: Arsenal 3-1 Leicester (BC)

Opta facts:

o Leicester are on a 20 game winless run against Arsenal in the Premier League (D7 L13), with their only win against the Gunners coming in their first ever Premier League encounter in November 1994 (2-1 victory).

o Arsenal have won each of their last nine Premier League home encounters with Leicester City; the longest current run in the division.

o In fact, if the Gunners beat the Foxes, it will equal their longest home winning streak against a single club (10 successive wins against Everton between Jan 1997 – Sept 2005).

o Theo Walcott has found the net in three of his four Premier League appearances against Leicester, including in both home games.

o Jamie Vardy has scored Leicester City’s last three goals against Arsenal in the Premier League, scoring the opening goal twice. However, he is yet to end up on the winning side.

o Vardy has scored seven goals in 10 competitive games for Leicester under Craig Shakespeare, this after netting seven goals in 32 games in 2016-17 under Claudio Ranieri for the Foxes.

o Alexis Sánchez has now scored 19 Premier League goals this season; equalling his best-ever tally in a single league season (19 with Barcelona in 2013-14).

Middlesbrough v Sunderland (1945)

David Moyes evidently believes that Sunderland have a chance not only to beat Middlesbrough but to somehow maintain their Premier League status.

"There's still a chance (1) and while there's a chance (2), we're going to try to take it,” he said on Tuesday.

“That chance (3) comes at Middlesbrough on Wednesday and we will try to take our chance (4).

"If we can take our chance (5) there, then we will have another chance (6) against Bournemouth on Saturday.

"We're not stupid, but we are in there fighting and we still think we have got a good chance (7)."

If Sunderland were to survive from here, it would be among the most remarkable turnarounds ever performed in the division and it’s near impossible to envisage them doing so without a victory at Boro, a side without a league win since December.

This is a side whose chances - of which there have been more than seven - have come and gone, and while they've escaped jail before, never have they done so from 12 points adrift in the final week of April.

Middlesbrough’s plight is only slightly less desperate and the reality is that these sides will play each other twice more next season as they try to return to the top flight via the Sky Bet Championship – regardless of what happens here.

Steve Agnew inherited a Boro squad low on confidence and lacking in the basic tools required to fight their way out of a perilous situation and while this is the easiest task the home side have had for some time, it’s hard to understand why they’d be quite so well-supported at a skinny 5/4.

Granted, Boro put up a fight against Arsenal in their last game at the Riverside, but they had previously failed to beat a Burnley side who don’t travel at all well and a lack of firepower is the main reason for their position.

On that score, Sunderland may hold a very slight advantage and at 5/2 would get the token vote, but the bottom line is these are two poor, desperate sides and it’s only the latter factor which would put me off a shade of odds-on about under 2.5 goals from comfortably the league’s lowest-scoring pair.

Should desperation reveal itself in an atypically open game, Fabio Borini might pop up again as he tends to do at this time of year and did at the weekend (7/2 anytime), but it seems clear he doesn’t have the total faith of his manager and a supporting role from the bench is again possible.

Ultimately, both sides are missing important midfield influences through suspension and goals could well be at a premium in a game whose whole atmosphere may be rather drab. There are far worse bets than no goalscorer at 9/1.

Prediction: Middlesbrough 0-0 Sunderland (BC)

Opta facts:

o Middlesbrough are winless in their last three Premier League encounters against Sunderland at the Riverside (D2 L1), last facing off in the top-flight in January 2009 (1-1 draw).

o Since that January 2009 fixture, they have only met at the Riverside in the FA Cup Fourth Round in February 2012, with the Black Cats winning 2-1 thanks to an extra-time winner from Stephane Sessegnon.

o Middlesbrough have won just one of their last 10 North East derbies in the Premier League (W1 D6 L3), though that win came against Sunderland in their most recent encounter.

o On the day of this game, Sunderland will have spent 236 days in the relegation zone this season. The record for a single season is held by Sheffield Wednesday in 1999-00 (278 days) and if Sunderland remain in the bottom three between now and the end of the season they can only reach 261 days in 2016-17.

o There have been 10 occasions of the side in 19th place playing the bottom of the league side in a Premier League match since the start of 2012-13 and only one of those games have been won by the team that’s bottom of the league (L5 D4), though that was Sunderland in April 2014 against Cardiff, a 4-0 win.

o These two clubs are the lowest scoring teams in the 2016-17 Premier League season so far: Middlesbrough (23 goals) and Sunderland (26 goals).

Posted at 1805 BST on 25/04/17.