Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt e.w N Forest top on Christmas Day at 150/1 (bet365, Sky Bet, Paddy Power 1/4 odds 1-3)
2.5pts e.w. Morgan Rogers most Premier League assists at 25/1 (General 1/4 odds 1-4)
1pt Jordan Pickford to win the Golden Glove 80/1 (General)
1pt Matz Sels to win the Golden Glove at 80/1 (General)
With the return of the Premier League a matter of days away and plenty of other outright material on Sporting Life I won't waste too much time with repeated levels of context, where I can getting straight into the selections for bets I found when assessing the 'specials' markets.
That's about the long and short of it, so here we go...
Who could be a dark horse in the Premier League this season?
There are question marks over a lot of teams heading into the new season, with Arsenal the only major club without any.
European campaigns for several sides unaccustomed to that extra workload also brings added intrigue, potentially opening the door for an outsider.
Chelsea and Tottenham don't exactly fall into that category but do head into promising new eras, with a lack of continental action giving Xabi Alonso and Roberto De Zerbi a greater opportunity to turn their club's fortunes around and return them to contention.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST boss Oliver Glasner walks into that same situation, and at the prices his team are certainly underdogs.
Glasner is a superb coach, winning three major trophies at Frankfurt and Crystal Palace, and while you can never be certain about owner Evangelos Marinakis, he does look a good fit to bring calm to the City Ground after a record four permanent managers last season.
Many of the good value, pro-Forest angles have disappeared across pre-season, with Jake's outright covering a couple of good ones, but there is one big, more short-term swing I'm prepared to have a go at.
Chelsea and Tottenham are 10/1 and 12/1 respectively to be TOP ON CHRISTMAS DAY while FOREST are 200/1.
That is only available as win only with a couple of firms. The general 150/1 price can be taken each-way, paying 35/1 for them to be in the top three at that point in the season.
It has become common in recent campaigns for a relative outsider to be in contention at the turn of the year, before gradually fading away as Arsenal or Liverpool maintained consistency and Manchester City came with their trademark late run.
It is easy to forget Aston Villa were third and just three points off the top when Christmas presents were being opened last season, all the more remarkable after they took just three points from their first five matches.
Villa were in the exact same position in 2023, but only a point off the pace. In 2024, a FOREST team that narrowly escaped relegation only a few months before were sitting fourth.
Glasner has been backed this summer, with the money raised from Elliot Anderson's £115m move to Manchester City reinvested in the squad.
They look well placed to outrun their odds, hopefully by making a fast start.
What usually wins the Premier League most assists?
The winning total for PREMIER LEAGUE MOST ASSISTS is usually around 13–16, highlighting just how extraordinary Bruno Fernandes’ record-breaking 21 was - and how much we should consider it an outlier when looking to oppose him at 9/4.
It's also worth pointing out that Rayan Cherki is the clear 7/2 second favourite despite it being far from a guarantee he will be a regular under new City boss Enzo Maresca.
Back to the history books and Kevin De Bruyne, Mesut Ozil and Thierry Henry are the only other players to have hit 19+ in a Premier League season. Since the Playmaker award began in 2017/18, the winning totals have been 16, 15, 20, 14, 13, 16, 13, 18 and 21.
Manchester United had the benefit of no European football and early cup exits last season, keeping Fernandes fresh to perform at an exceptionally high level throughout the league campaign.
It is highly unlikely he will be able to repeat that this term, but that recipe does give a couple of players an opportunity.
COLE PALMER and MORGAN ROGERS will both benefit from a lighter workload this term and at 25/1 ROGERS rates a cracking bet in this market, more than double the price of his team-mate.
Now at Chelsea in a higher quality attacking environment the £117m man will hope to improve on the 11 assists he managed for Aston Villa in all competitions last term (six in the league) and at least match his 10 in the top flight in 2024/25.
Rogers has so far proved to be incredibly robust, too, playing almost every minute for Villa over the past two-and-a-half seasons.
Palmer is potentially worth a look if he drifts from his current price of 12/1, but this is a market to look at backing someone each-way in, and that price is only worthwhile win only.
MARTIN ODEGAARD (20/1) is another player of interest, but it's a watching brief for now.
The arrival of Bruno Guimaraes hould see the Arsenal captain return to a more advanced role, as evidenced by his goal in the Community Shield, but we need to know a bit more about Mikel Arteta’s squad rotation plans.
Odegaard missed much of last season through injury and reached the quarter-finals of the World Cup with Norway, so could be rested for some league games.
Having previously reached 10 assists in a top-flight season he is worth bearing in mind, especially when Arsenal are expected to have another strong season.
How do you win the Premier League golden glove award?
The PREMIER LEAGUE GOLDEN GLOVE award is given to the goalkeeper who records the most clean sheets, and it is a market very, very hard to oppose Arsenal's David Raya in.
I’m prepared to have a go at small stakes on the basis that two keepers look to be far too low in the market. Unfortunately there is no place money on offer but JORDAN PICKFORD and MATZ SELS are still backed at 80/1.
Last season PICKFORD (11) was joint third, behind Raya (19) and Gianluigi Donnarumma (15).
He is always there or thereabouts for Everton, in 2024/25 missing out by one with 12 as SELS shared the honour with Raya.
The season prior Pickford was second with 13, as Raya (16) again took the award.
Backing PICKFORD speaks for itself, as for SELS the chaos at Nottingham Forest last season gave him no chance of being in contention.
With Glasner at the helm there is reason to believe Forest will return to the kind of defensive resilience that was the backbone of their success under Nuno Espírito Santo.
Palace keeper Dean Henderson recorded 11 clean sheets in both his seasons under the Austrian, so there is precedent too.
Odds correct at 18:20 BST (16/8/26)
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