Sunday's packed Premier League fixture list includes Tottenham hosting Arsenal in a behind-closed-doors North London Derby. We look at the betting for all four games.
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Wolves v Everton
- 1200 BST kick-off on Sky One / Sky Sports / Sky Pick
- Match Odds: Home 1/1 | Draw 21/10 | Away 3/1
This match has very few goals written all over it. There have been Under 2.5 goals for seven successive matches involving Wolves, and it has been 0-0 at half-time in all but for their 2-0 defeat by Arsenal when Bukayo Saka's wonderful 43rd-minute volley ruined the streak.
Everton have returned from lockdown with much more of a defensive focus, conceding just three times in five matches and scoring only four goals. That total of seven goals is the same number that has been scored in Wolves' five games too - an average of 1.4 per game.
What sets the teams apart though, is that while only one goal has been scored in the first half of Wolves' fixtures, it's eight out of 10 for the Toffees' matches. That makes backing the half-time 0-0 a little trickier, and 7/5 not enough to tempt me.
The Toffees' 2-1 win over Leicester is the only match of the 10 to have seen Over 2.5 goals, so unsurprisingly the Unders price is a huge odds-on of 4/7.
Considering the average goals per game, and the fact three out of five fixtures for both teams have involved Under 1.5 goals then 17/10 feels like an inviting price, especially when Everton have failed to score in their past three away matches and Wolves have scored once in their past three home matches.
I can't see this one being a classic.
Prediction: Wolves 0-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Aston Villa v Crystal Palace
- 1415 BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match Odds: Home 13/10 | Draw 23/10 | Away 21/10
This is a meeting between two of the Premier League's most out-of-form teams.
Aston Villa are desperate for a win to give themselves any hope of avoiding relegation. Dean Smith's side have picked up just two points from their last 10 matches, and you have to go back to January for their last victory.
They can't keep clean sheets and they can't score, which is the perfect recipe for going down. If we focus on the goal-scoring it's two in their six Project Restart matches, and they failed to find the net in their two league matches immediately prior to the break as well.
Crystal Palace meanwhile are on a four-game losing streak, but they did break their own three-match scoring drought by netting twice in a five-goal thriller at home to Chelsea. Roy Hodgson's team have built a reputation for defensive solidity but 11 goals conceded in their losing run doesn't reflect that.
I am really struggling to make a case for either team to win, keep a clean sheet or score to I'm going elsewhere for this one.
Thanks to their pacy, direct forward trio of Wilfried Zaha, Jordan Ayew and Andros Townsend - who has had to settle for a place on the bench recently - Palace are a pretty consistent bet when it comes to the corner count.
Just focusing on their three most recent games, against opponents of differing styles (Burnley, Leicester and Chelsea) they had nine, seven and seven corners. In a game that will surely be more of a contest, they will at least match those numbers.
Prediction: Aston Villa 1-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Tottenham v Arsenal
- 1630 BST kick-off on Sky Sports
- Match Odds: Home 8/5 | Draw 12/5 | Away 13/8
This feels like a match Jose Mourinho has to win, or certainly cannot afford to lose as discontent starts to grow around Tottenham following his less than impressive half-season tenure.
He has won just 13 of his 31 matches in charge, but their recent form is far worse than that because the Portuguese won fourof his first five games. Spurs have lost an unacceptable 10 - a fraction under a third of their fixtures.
Mourinho was brought in as the proven winner, having amassed so much during a career at Porto, Chelsea, Inter, Real and Manchester United. Arsenal appointed rookie Mikel Arteta, who has lost just four of his 22 games as head coach and taken the Gunners above their rivals in the table.
For all their differences, and there are lots, what has actually been quite similar in recent weeks is both sides' improved defences having faced deserved criticism for their previous paucity.
Arsenal have conceded only twice in five matches, and had looked destined for a fourth clean sheet in that time until Eddie Nketiah's red card triggered a Leicester assault and late Jamie Vardy equaliser. The only other goal they've let in during that time was in the FA Cup at Sheffield United, which also came in the final five minutes, so Arteta's side have certainly made a noticeable change.
Spurs have quite rightly been lambasted for some dreadful attacking displays since lockdown, in particular their most recent three games - defeat at Sheffield United, victory over Everton and a goalless draw at Bournemouth.
Aside from the horrendous all-round showing at Bramall Lane, where the Blades beat them 3-1, Mourinho's team have conceded only one goal in four games and that was a penalty scored by Bruno Fernandes for Manchester United.
So for all of the criticism levelled at Jose for their attacking impotence, he must get some praise for fixing a defence that appeared unfixable.
Despite all those stats I've just told you about the teams' improved defences, you can get Under 1.5 Goals at 3/1 which I find incredible given the tendency for derbies to be cagey, plus the lower goals-per-game average of behind-closed-doors matches. I'll be backing that with a low stake, but adding a goal on for our Best Bet. Six of the last eight North London Derbies have finished with Under 2.5 Goals, so I like it at 21/20.
I also like this young Arsenal team and the way Arteta has them playing. I just can't help but think that Mourinho will dig out a narrow victory when his back is against the wall, as he invariably does.
Should he fail to, then that could be the sign that his time might already be up at Spurs.
Prediction: Tottenham 1-0 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
- Tottenham are unbeaten in their last five home league games against Arsenal (W3 D2), with this the first ever meeting between the sides at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
- Arsenal have only kept one clean sheet in their last 10 Premier League away games against Tottenham (W1 D3 L6), a 1-0 victory in March 2014.
- Tottenham have dropped 42 points from winning positions in Premier League games against Arsenal, more than any side has dropped against another in the competition’s history.
- Tottenham have won their last two home league games, and are looking to win three in a row at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium for the first time since April 2019 – in their first three Premier League games at the ground.
- Arsenal are unbeaten away from home in London derbies so far this season (W1 D2) – they last remained unbeaten in all of their away London derbies in a single Premier League season back in 2004-05.
- Arsenal are looking to win three consecutive Premier League away games for the first time since October 2018, while they last won three in a row on the road without conceding back in May 2013.
- Tottenham’s José Mourinho and Arsenal’s Mikel Arteta are each taking charge of their first ever north London derby matches. The last meeting between the sides that was the first such match for both managers was in September 1986, when George Graham (Arsenal) and David Pleat (Tottenham) played out a 0-0 draw at Highbury.
- Tottenham boss José Mourinho has never lost a home game against Arsenal in his career, winning five and drawing four of his nine games – only versus Everton and Man Utd (both 10 games) has he faced more often at home without ever losing.
- Harry Kane has scored 10 goals against Arsenal for Tottenham – if he scores in this game he’ll be the outright top scorer in Tottenham v Arsenal fixtures in history. Five of his Premier League goals against them have been penalties – only Alan Shearer against Everton (7) has scored more from the spot against an opponent in the competition.
- Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has been involved in four goals in his last three Premier League games against Spurs (3 goals, 1 assist). However, all of these goal involvements have been at the Emirates, with the Gabonese striker missing a last minute penalty in this exact fixture last term.
Bournemouth v Leicester
- 1900 BST kick-off on Sky One / Sky Sports / Sky Pick
- Match Odds: Home 19/5 | Draw 11/4 | Away 7/10
Bournemouth finally have something to hold on to after a much-improved display saw them take a point and a clean sheet from their home game with Tottenham. They were desperately unlucky to not take all three too, as Calum Wilson's late winner was correctly ruled out by VAR for handball before Harry Wilson's shot was brilliantly saved by Hugo Lloris in the dying moments.
It ended a run of five straight defeats, and perhaps most importantly gave them hope. Plenty of that is to do with the return of England striker Calum Wilson, who'd missed a few games through injury, and is by far and away the Cherries best player.
No player had more than his three shots, which doesn't include the effort that deflected off the hand of Joshua King and in to the back of the Spurs net. It was probably going in without the touch, too, making it even more galling for Eddie Howe's side.
He was a constant threat against Tottenham and gave Bournemouth a totally different dimension. Against a Leicester team that loves to play a high line you wouldn't count against him finding the net giving how close he came on Thursday, and 11/4 is a nice anytime price.
When Jamie Vardy is best-priced at evens to score anytime against one of the Premier League's worst defences, I just cannot turn that down either. Especially when he has three in his last two games, takes penalties and is hunting the Golden Boot. I know it sounds like I'm making more of a case for Vardy, which I kind of am, but I just feel as though the value is with Wilson.
Prediction: Bournemouth 1-2 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct as of 1330 BST on 10/07/20
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