Premier League cheat sheet: Manchester United vs Liverpool tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Liverpool 21+ total shots at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt 43+ total match shots at 9/1 (William Hill)
BuildABet @ 18/1
Liverpool 21+ total shots
Darwin Nunez 2+ shots on target
Dominik Szoboszlai 2+ tackles
Conor Bradley to win 2+ fouls
A contrasting few days for encounters between the Premier League's usual 'big six'.
Sunday took us to a snoozefest at the Etihad - Manchester City playing out a 0-0 draw with Arsenal - a contest described by some social media analysts as 'intriguing' (regular world translation = shite).
This happens too often. It hit a point when I was just about keeping my eyes open that I thought I should pack it in when it comes to watching these sort of games.
And then Thursday arrived, and as Michael Corleone proclaimed in the third chapter of the Godfather movie series: "Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!"
Manchester United went to Stamford Bridge and their match-up with Chelsea had everything we needed:
- No tactics for both sides ✅
- No effort to defend ✅
- Idiots on both sides ✅
- Late, late drama ✅
United were 3-2 up on 90+9', they would lose 4-3 thanks to Cole Palmer's late showing. A total of 47 shots underlining the sort of game we witnessed.
UNBELIEVABLE!! 🔥
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) April 4, 2024
Cole Palmer steals the show to complete his hat trick and put Chelsea back in the lead! 🤩
📺 @tntsports & @discoveryplusUK pic.twitter.com/2zEcknYHCD
But while extraordinary and unexpected, it was a continuation of United's woeful defensive line. Only Luton (529) and Sheffield United (549) have conceded more shots than Erik ten Hag's men this season (521) - a note here that the Hatters have also played a game more.
In games at Old Trafford, Manchester City had 21 shots in a 3-0 win, Tottenham had 16 when drawing 1-1, with Liverpool taking a staggering 34 when the sides met at Anfield in December.
225 - Manchester United have faced more shots than any other side in Europe's big-five leagues in 2024 (225). Concerning. pic.twitter.com/mVEgUEEfRo
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) April 4, 2024
You can get 5/4 on LIVERPOOL 21+ TOTAL SHOTS which is an appealing bet.
Jurgen Klopp's men have taken the most shots in the division by far - their total of 593 well clear of the next-best in Manchester City with 536.
Per 90 minutes, that works out at 19.8. Given how United have performed throughout the course of the campaign, they have a good chance of hitting the required 21 on Sunday.
And in case it becomes a chaotic contest, I'm also taking the 9/1 on 43+ TOTAL MATCH SHOTS.
There were 42 across the 90 minutes when the two sides met each other in the FA Cup last month, while it was 40 in the game at Anfield - a note there though that United would only manage six of them.
A league leader...
As we're backing Liverpool to see plenty of efforts towards goal, it makes sense to target a player to bump the value up further.
DARWIN NUNEZ is the one to focus on, and taking the Liverpool striker to have 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET is the most fancied selection.
No Liverpool player has seen more shots on target (41) across the course of this Premier League season - he averages the highest amount among all players in England's top-flight who have featured at least ten times.
As you'd expect, the number is slightly higher in home games but he's more than played his part on the road with the figure standing at 1.9 per 90.
Stop 'em, Szoboszlai
DOMINIK SZOBOSZLAI has been a solid performer when available for Liverpool this season, forming a good midfield trio with Wataru Endo and Alexis Mac Allister.
He's been contributing in all areas - and his presence on set-pieces always makes him a contender in the 'to score or assist' markets - but I'm backing him for 2+ TACKLES here.
Liverpool saw 24 successful when they met United in the league and Szoboszlai contributed two of those. He also returned one tackle when brought off in the 72nd minute of their FA Cup meeting a few weeks ago.
Bradley worth backing
One player who has impressed since having to step into the starting XI is CONNOR BRADLEY, and yes I know he did score an own goal in midweek.
The right-back has returned a goal and three assists while covering for Trent Alexander-Arnold - that underlining his attacking output alongside his defensive duties.
His 6/4 price TO WIN 2+ FOULS looks eye-catching for our multiple.
He was fouled four times when they beat Chelsea at Anfield while two came in the home draw with Manchester City. Six of his eight starts in the league have seen him fouled at least once.
Team news
Manchester United's defensive availability issues were further added to in that defeat to Chelsea.
Raphaël Varane was forced off through injury at half-time, replaced by Jonny Evans, only for Evans to then have to go off 20 minutes later.
Youngster Willy Kambwala came in to partner Harry Maguire and a repeat is likely here given the quick turnaround. Casemiro is also viewed as a major doubt at this stage.
Alexander-Arnold, Alisson, Stefan Bajcetic, Diogo Jota, Joel Matip and Thiago are all unavailable for the visiting Liverpool.
Endo should be involved though having missed the win over Sheffield United. Another positive is that Curtis Jones returned to feature in the second-half of that contest.
Predicted line-ups
Manchester United XI: Onana; Wan-Bissaka, Maguire, Kambwala, Dalot; Mainoo, Mount; Garnacho, Fernandes, Rashford; Hojlund.
Liverpool XI: Kelleher; Bradley, Konate, van Dijk, Robertson; Endo, Mac Allister, Szoboszlai; Salah, Nunez, Diaz.
Match facts
- Manchester United have won just one of their last 11 Premier League games against Liverpool (D4 L6), though it was in this exact fixture last season. They last won consecutive home league games against the Reds in September 2015.
- The reverse fixture between Liverpool and Manchester United at Anfield ended 0-0 in December. The Reds haven’t failed to score in both league meetings with the Red Devils since 2007-08 (0-1 and 0-3 defeats).
- Manchester United beat Liverpool 4-3 in the FA Cup quarter-final at Old Trafford last month. Only in 2010-11 and 1998-99 have they won two home games against the Reds in the same campaign before.
- Under Erik ten Hag, Manchester United have won four of their five home Premier League matches against teams starting the day in the top-four (L1), most recently defeating third-place Aston Villa 3-2 on Boxing Day.
- Liverpool have won six of their last seven away Premier League matches (L1) – their previous six away wins before this run came over a period of 19 matches (W6 D7 L6).
- Since enduring a run of failing to score in four out of five away games in all competitions between February and April 2023, Liverpool have scored in their last 26 away matches, netting 61 times. Only once in their history have they had a longer away scoring run, scoring in 28 in a row between January and December 2021.
- Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has scored in each of his last three Premier League away games against Manchester United, netting five goals in total. No visiting player has scored more at Old Trafford in the competition than Salah (5), while no visiting player has ever scored in four consecutive visits to the ground.
- Marcus Rashford has scored seven goals for Manchester United against Liverpool in all competitions, with only Stan Pearson (8) and George Wall (9) and Sandy Turnbull (9) netting more for the Red Devils against the Reds in all competitions.
- Darwin Núñez has been involved in eight goals in his last nine away appearances in all competitions (7 goals, 1 assist). The Uruguayan is the Reds’ leading scorer in away games this season with 11 goals in total, netting one every 110 minutes on average.
- Erik ten Hag has a win ratio at Old Trafford of 71.7%, winning 38 of his 53 games on home soil as Manchester United manager. That is the best win ratio of any permanent Red Devils manager in the club’s history, just ahead of Sir Alex Ferguson (71.2%).
Odds correct at 1015 BST (05/04/24)
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