Premier League cheat sheet: Arsenal vs Newcastle tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Bruno Guimaraes 3+ tackles at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
1pt Gabriel Martinelli to win 2+ fouls at 8/5 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 17/1
- Bruno Guimaraes 3+ tackles
- Kieran Trippier 3+ tackles
- Bukayo Saka 4+ shots
- Over 3.5 Goals
Click here to add all seven cheat sheet selections to your BuildABet @ 160/1
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Home 4/11 | Draw 17/4 | Away 13/2
Going for goals
When Arsenal were knocked out of the FA Cup by Liverpool in early January, it seemed as if their season was falling apart. That 2-0 loss was a third in succession and extended a poor run of form to just one win in seven games in all competitions.
But it has in fact proved to be a significant turning point, with a better Arsenal, almost unrecognisable from the more risk-averse team of the first half of the campaign, emerging from that defeat.
At The Emirates that day Mikel Arteta opted for Leandro Trossard as a false nine rather than use Eddie Nketiah as a traditional centre-forward.
Quite rightly, he wasn’t perturbed by the result as Arsenal were beaten by an 80th-minute own goal and 95th-minute breakaway second - they created more opportunities than their usually swashbuckling opponents (xG: ARS 1.76-0.64 LIV).
The Gunners have won all five of their Premier League matches since, scoring 21 goals and conceding just twice.
After a mid-season wobble of their own, Newcastle are also experiencing something of a resurgence.
The Magpies’ only defeat in their past seven games came against Manchester City and even that required some Kevin De Bruyne brilliance from the bench to turn the game on its head in the closing stages.
Again, like Arsenal, Eddie Howe’s side have become quite the entertainers, though without the same defensive resilience. A staggering 36 goals have been scored across Newcastle’s past seven league matches, an average of 5.14 per game.
The sides' combined runs of form makes OVER 3.5 GOALS appeal at odds-against for what bears all the hallmarks of an entertaining affair.
Tackle the value
It feels incredibly likely that Saturday will be a busy night for Newcastle's full-backs, much in the same way as it was at home to Manchester City last month.
That evening KIERAN TRIPPIER (6 tackles) and DAN BURN (2 tackles) were both put under constant pressure.
Wing wizards
Given that much of Arsenal’s improvement has been down to the return to form of wide-men BUKAYO SAKA and GABRIEL MARTINELLI, we can expect them to test the Newcastle duo throughout the 90 minutes, while creating plenty of opportunities themselves too.
It is Saka who has been most threatening, scored six goals and having 20 shots in his past four league matches.
Where Martinelli is of interest is in the attention he draws from opposition defenders now that he appears to have rediscovered his confident dribbling ability, with the Brazilian fouled five times in his last two matches - more than he was in his previous eight appearances combined.
Where Newcastle may feel they can get some joy is by pressing Arsenal high up the pitch, especially in the left-back position where Jakub Kiwior is again expected to deputise in the absence of several more regular options.
Tenacious Toon
The relentless MIGUEL ALMIRON will be the man tasked with putting the young Pole under pressure, and in contests against the top six he is usually busy, consistently making between two and four tackles.
Another Newcastle player who seems to lift his intensity levels against top class opposition is Brazilian midfielder BRUNO GUIMARAES. He made four tackles against Aston Villa and Manchester United, five against Liverpool and Man City, and six against Spurs.
Already on 15 yellow cards for club and country this season he looks a prime candidate for going in the referee’s notebook too, but the price about that isn't there for me to hold interest.
Taking a slightly higher tackle line is tempting though, with some firms going as big as 13/2 for Guimaraes to complete five challenges.
Team news
Arsenal defenders Oleksandr Zinchenko and Takehiro Tomiyasu remain out which means Jakub Kiwior is likely to continue to deputise at left-back.
Thomas Partey could be back in the squad after missing the midweek defeat in Porto, with Gabriel Jesus also close to a return.
Newcastle were given a boost in midweek as Alexander Isak and Joe Willock returned to training, but how involved they will be remains to be seen.
Predicted line-ups
Arsenal: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Kiwior; Rice, Odegaard, Havertz; Saka, Trossard, Martinelli.
Newcastle: Dubravka; Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn; Guimaraes, Longstaff, Mile; Almiron, Isak, Gordon.
Match facts
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 11 Premier League home games against Newcastle, with last season’s goalless draw ending a 10-game winning run. Their last such defeat against the Magpies was in November 2010.
- Having won 1-0 at St James’ Park in the reverse fixture in November, Newcastle are looking to complete the Premier League double against Arsenal for just the second time, previously doing so in 1994-95.
- Arsenal have failed to score in three of their last four Premier League games against Newcastle, as many as they had in their previous 27 against them. However, the Gunners’ 30 Premier League clean sheets against the Magpies is the most any side has kept against another in the competition.
- Ayoze Pérez was the last Newcastle player to score an away Premier League goal against Arsenal (December 2014), with the Magpies failing to convert any of their 63 attempts on goal at the Emirates since. The Gunners have kept seven consecutive home clean sheets against Newcastle, while they’ve never kept eight successive shutouts on home soil against an opponent in their league history (also 7 vs Man City between 1979-1989).
- Arsenal have begun a calendar year with five successive league wins for the first time in the club’s history, improving their goal difference by +19 during this run (21GF, 2GA). Only between February-April 2023 (a run of 7) have the Gunners won more Premier League games consecutively in a single season under Mikel Arteta.
- Newcastle have conceded 16 goals in their six Premier League games since the turn of the year (W2 D2 L2), as many as in their final 11 league games of 2023. The Magpies are however unbeaten in four (W2 D2), winning each of their last two away from home, as many wins as in their previous 14 on the road (D4 L8).
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 20 Premier League games that have come after playing in Europe in midweek (W16 D4), since a 0-1 loss to Man City in February 2021.
- Bukayo Saka has scored in four consecutive Premier League appearances for Arsenal, scoring as many goals in this run (6) as he managed in his first 20 games this season. The last player to score in more successive league appearances for the Gunners was Olivier Giroud between February/April 2015 (6), while the last Englishman to do so was Ian Wright between September/November 1994 (7).
- Following his winner in the reverse fixture in November, Anthony Gordon could become just the second Newcastle player to score home and away against Arsenal in a single Premier League campaign after Peter Beardsley, who did so in back-to-back seasons (1993-94 & 1994-95).
- Arsenal have faced just two shots on target in their last three Premier League games (1 v Liverpool, 1 v West Ham and none vs Burnley), conceding a combined xG of just 0.9 across those matches. The last side to face one or fewer shots on target in four consecutive Premier League matches were Arsenal themselves between April-May 2021.
Odds correct at 1325 GMT (23/02/24)
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