Premier League: Title race & top four run-ins

1st: Chelsea Pld 28 Pts 69 GD +38

Sky Bet odds – Title: 1/25; Finish outside top 4: 150/1

With a 10-point lead and just 10 games remaining, it’s hard to see the champions elect stumbling in the run-in.

A look at the fixture list suggests if they are going to blow it, they’ll have to start dropping points in the first half of April with both Manchester clubs to be tackled in that period. Everton, beaten just once at home this season, is a tricky trip also coming next month but the final straight looks a good one for the Blues – home games against Middlesbrough and Sunderland likely to be joined by a rearranged clash with Watford at the Bridge.

Chelsea are also still in the FA Cup, their semi-final coming in between trips to Old Trafford and the rearranged game against Southampton.

Apr 1 – Crystal Palace H
Apr 5 – Manchester City H
Apr 8 – Bournemouth A
Apr 16 – Manchester United A
Apr 22 – Tottenham N (FAC SF)
Apr 25 – Southampton H
Apr 30 – Everton A
May 6 – Middlesbrough H
May 13 – West Brom A
May 21 – Sunderland H
May 27 – FAC F
TBC Watford H

2nd: Tottenham Pld 28 Pts 59 GD +34

Sky Bet odds – Title: 18/1; Top-4 finish: 1/12; Finish outside top 4: 13/2

Of the five teams who appear to be battling it out for three Champions League places, Spurs look to have one of the kinder fixture lists.

Eight of their remaining 10 games will be against teams currently in the bottom half of the table, while their two meetings with fellow ‘Big Six’ clubs both come at White Hart Lane which has become a real fortress this season and a venue at which Chelsea and Manchester City have already been beaten.

While an FA Cup semi-final with Chelsea has the potential to distract from the Premier League run-in, one bonus for Spurs in terms of their league position is they have by far the best goal difference of those five chasing the three spots.

Harry Kane has had plenty to do with that, though, so the sooner he can recover from an ankle injury, the better.

Apr 1 – Burnley A
Apr 5 – Swansea A
Apr 8 – Watford H
Apr 15 – Bournemouth H
Apr 22 – Chelsea N (FAC SF)
Apr 26 – Crystal Palace A
Apr 30 – Arsenal H
May 6 – West Ham A
May 13 – Manchester United H
May 21 – Hull A
May 27 – FAC F
TBC Leicester A

3rd: Manchester City Pld 28 Pts 57 GD +24

Sky Bet odds – Title: 28/1; Top-4 finish: 1/5; Finish outside top 4: 7/2

The days which immediately follow the international break could make or break City’s season. They travel to both Arsenal and Chelsea in a four-day period. Win both and a top-four finish will look pretty secure; lose the pair and the wobbles could really set in.

There’s also a Thursday night derby with Manchester rivals United to come, although if it does all boil down to the final day, an away game at Watford, who will surely be ensconced in mid-table by then, looks a decent-enough finale for them to negotiate.

City are another club to still be fighting on two fronts, though, with a Wembley FA Cup semi-final meeting with Arsenal looming.

Apr 2 – Arsenal A
Apr 5 – Chelsea A
Apr 8 – Hull H
Apr 15 - Southampton A
Apr 23 – Arsenal N (FAC SF)
Apr 27 – Manchester United H
Apr 30 – Middlesbrough A
May 6 – Crystal Palace H
May 13 – Leicester H
May 21 – Watford A
May 27 – FAC F
TBC Manchester United H
TBC West Brom H

4th: Liverpool Pld 29 Pts 56 GD +25

Sky Bet odds – Title: 150/1; Top-4 finish: 4/11; Finish outside top 4: 2/1

With none of the top six to play and only one target left on the Anfield agenda, Liverpool will be furious with themselves if they fail to nail down Champions League football next season from this position.

Five of their nine remaining games are at home too.

Relate the fixtures to the table and a stats man will tell you they’ll do it. The problem is Liverpool’s issue this season has been defeating the sides in the lower half of the table – the ones who sit in and deny them space in and around the area.

Jurgen Klopp needs to solve that problem; if he does, Liverpool should be back at Europe’s top table come late summer.

Apr 1 - Everton H
Apr 5 – Bournemouth H
Apr 8 – Stoke A
Apr 16 – West Brom A
Apr 23 – Crystal Palace H
May 1 – Watford A
May 6 – Southampton H
May 13 – West Ham A
May 21 – Middlesbrough H

5th: Manchester United Pld 27 Pts 52 GD +19

Sky Bet odds – Title: 200/1; Top-4 finish: 6/4; Finish outside top 4: 8/15

Jose Mourinho has already begun complaining about the fixture list – he knows more than anyone that the games are piling up and the backlog could well play a big part in the final make-up of the top four.

Into the Europa League quarter-finals, United have a potential 16 games still to play this season and they include matches against four of the top six, three of which are away.

They also have considerably the worst goal difference of the five clubs who appear to be chasing three Champions League places.

Given they are also still playing catch-up on the top four, you have to wonder whether United will, come the end of April, feel their best chance of securing Champions League football for 2017/18 may well come via European, rather than domestic, competition. If so, sacrifices may have to be made.

Apr 1 – West Brom H
Apr 4 – Everton H
Apr 9 – Sunderland A
Apr 13 – Anderlecht A (UEL QF 1L)
Apr 16 – Chelsea H
Apr 20 – Anderlecht H (UEL QF 2L)
Apr 23 – Burnley A
Apr 27 – Manchester City A
Apr 30 – Swansea H
May 4 – UEL SF 1L
May 6 - Arsenal A
May 11 – UEL SF 2L
May 13 – Tottenham A
May 21 – Crystal Palace H
May 24 – UEL F
TBC Southampton A

6th: Arsenal Pld 27 Pts 50 GD +22

Sky Bet odds – Top-4 finish: 11/4; Finish outside top 4: 2/7

In poor form and with games mounting up – they still have two games yet to be arranged – Arsenal look up against it as they bid to qualify for the Champions League for the 20th straight season.

They have three of the top six still to play – including the short trip to White Hart Lane – and recent results mean they simply can’t afford to lose those matches. Unfortunately, losing them is something they’ve become accustomed to – they have the worst record of teams against other members of the Big Six, taking just five points from seven such games so far this season.

Arsenal have dug themselves out of holes before in April, a month in which they have been traditionally strong, but the fixture list in front of them (which also includes an FA Cup semi-final) suggests it will be some achievement if they repeat the trick in 2017. 

Apr 2 – Manchester City H
Apr 5 – West Ham H
Apr 10 – Crystal Palace A
Apr 17 – Middlesbrough A
Apr 23 – Manchester City N (FAC SF)
Apr 26 – Leicester H
Apr 30 – Tottenham A
May 6 – Manchester United H
May 13 – Stoke A
May 21 – Everton H
May 27 – FAC F
TBC Sunderland H
TBC Southampton A

7th: Everton Pld 29 Pts 50 GD +21

Odds – Top-4 finish: 66/1

Everton have been on a fine run since Christmas and, for the first time since Boxing Day, managed to climb into the top six at the weekend (albeit for less than 24 hours) so optimistic Blues might suggest they could still have a say in the top-four race.

With four of the Big Six still to play, they certainly will, but given their long-standing struggles against such sides away from home (they have already lost at Chelsea and Spurs and still have to visit Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal) it’s hard to see them truly troubling the six currently above them.

Still, home form has been rock solid and if they are able to snatch something in those tough away trips – particularly the two in the first week of April - maybe they will be able to ramp up the pressure.

Whether they do or not, it is hard to see them finishing below seventh – a position which would be good enough to earn them Europa League football next term.

Apr 1 – Liverpool A
Apr 4 – Manchester United A
Apr 9 – Leicester H
Apr 15 – Burnley H
Apr 22 – West Ham A
Apr 30 – Chelsea H
May 6 – Swansea A
May 13 – Watford H
May 21 – Arsenal A

• Fixtures in matchdays 36 and 37 (currently listed as May 6 and May 13) are still subject to change as the TV games have yet to be announced.