Premier League predictor: Liverpool to get record points tally after data model predicts final table for the 2019/20 season

StatsPerform's AI team have created a model that works out what the final Premier League standings will be based on the probability of the remaining fixtures.

Football across Europe is getting back to business after being suspended due to the coronavirus pandemic, with the Premier League due to return on June 17.

The pause came with Liverpool on the verge of ending their 30-year wait for a domestic title, and they could have secured it without kicking another ball if Manchester City lost to both Arsenal and Burnley.

However, they are fancied to get their hands on the trophy with a huge points tally. Their 101 would set a new English record and beat the 100-point total that Pep Guardiola's City posted in 2018.

The model has City finishing in second by a distance but also find themselves well clear of Leicester in third. Chelsea are also tipped to hold onto their top-four spot.

At the other end, Watford would survive but goal difference would separate them and Bournemouth, who make a return to the Sky Bet Championship, along with Aston Villa and bottom club Norwich.

But what else did the model predict? Here is the full Premier League table with an explanation of the key findings.

How does the model work?

• The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) given each team's attacking and defensive quality.
• The team’s attacking and defensive qualities are based on four years of historic results, with more weighting given to their most recent results.
• The model will take into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes against and reward them accordingly.
• StatsPerform state that they can simulate the upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution with the two teams’ attacking and defending qualities as inputs.
• StatsPerform simulated the outcome of the season 10,000 times in order to estimate the likelihood of each team finishing in each league position.

What would the final table look like?

1. Liverpool - 101pts
2. Manchester City - 80pts
3. Leicester - 67pts
4. Chelsea - 63pts
5. Manchester United - 61pts
6. Tottenham - 58pts
7. Wolves - 56pts
8. Arsenal - 56pts
9. Sheffield United - 55pts
10. Everton - 50pts
11. Burnley - 49pts
12. Crystal Palace - 49pts
13. Newcastle - 46pts
14. Southampton - 44pts
15. West Ham - 39pts
16. Brighton - 37pts
17. Watford - 36pts
18. Bournemouth - 36pts
19. Aston Villa - 32pts
20. Norwich - 29pts

Key findings from the prediction

• Liverpool win the title with 101 points: this would be an all-time English top-flight record tally of points and the only team to have won more in a season within the top five European Leagues is Juventus (102) in their 2013-14 Serie A victory.
• The 21 point gap between Liverpool and Manchester City would be the biggest-ever gap between the top two places in an English top-flight season, moving ahead of Manchester City's title win in 2017-18 when they finished 19 points ahead of Manchester United.
• Manchester City's 80-point tally would have been enough to win the Premier League title in six previous seasons: 1992/93, 1996/97, 1997/98, 1998/99, 2000/01 and 2010/11.
• Tottenham Hotspur would leapfrog Wolves and Sheffield United into sixth place, thanks to a total of 17 points in their final nine games of the season.
• Watford would just avoid relegation with 36 points, ahead of Bournemouth. Watford have a 61.7% chance of survival, compared to the Cherries' 55.4% probability.
• With 36 points, Bournemouth would be relegated with the highest points tally in a Premier League season since Newcastle United in 2015-16 (37).

(Via Opta)

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