Using expected goals (xG) data, Infogol’s Jake Osgathorpe picks out the best value bets in the overs/unders markets from across the weekend’s Premier League and Championship action.
Infogol is a revolutionary football product, which harnesses Opta data to power an expected goals model. Expected Goals quantifies the quality of a scoring opportunity, allocating each chance a probability of it finding the back of the net.
The xG metric can be used to assess teams and their performances, and it also helps to give an insight into future prospects, which in turn helps with betting.
Fulham vs Crystal Palace – Under 2.5 Goals @ 8/13
- Saturday, 15:00
Fulham picked up their first point of the season last time out, getting a point at Sheffield United in an extremely game that saw a penalty apiece (xG: SHU 1.83 – 1.82 FUL). A draw was a fair result in that one.
It was a much better performance in from an attacking stand point, as they took 15 shots, but it is worth noting that they failed to create a non-penalty big chance (>0.35 xG).
In total, the Cottagers have averaged just 0.82 non-penalty xGF per game this season, which is poor, but not as bad as their opponents this weekend, Crystal Palace.
Roy Hodgson’s side were worryingly poor in their 1-1 draw with Brighton at the weekend, registering no shots other than the penalty from which they scored.
That was a tragic attacking display, and while they started the season looking dangerous in attack, they have looked tame in recent weeks. Through five league games Palace have created just 0.70 non-pen xGF.
So, at the Cottage on Saturday we have two of the worst attacking teams in the league going head to head in a game that neither will want to lose, meaning the under 2.5 looks like the only play.
Manchester United vs Chelsea – Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/13
- Saturday, 17:30
Manchester United got a morale boosting win at Newcastle last weekend, and a deserved one too mainly thanks to an improved defensive display (xG: NEW 0.97 – 2.32 MUN).
While Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side peppered the Newcastle goal with shots (28), they failed to create a big chance other than Bruno Fernandes’ missed penalty, with the best chance based on expected goals being Marcus Rashford’s late goal (20%).
It was a better performance though, and they followed that up with an even better one against PSG in the Champions League, which suggests to me that they have now found their match sharpness after a strange off-season.
Chelsea conceded a late equaliser to Southampton last time out in the league in a 3-3 draw, as Frank Lampard’s side continue to give away chances and goals.
Kepa was in goal for that game, and made another glaring error leading to a goal which is a concern, but Edouard Mendy is back fit and kept a clean sheet against a Sevilla team who didn’t offer too much of a threat.
Fortunately for Lampard though, he has the attacking talent to score plenty, and it may be a case of them needing to in this game if they are to get something, with United able to threaten.
As a result, I think goals should flow at Old Trafford, and over 2.5 goals is the obvious play.
Wolves vs Newcastle – Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/6
- Sunday, 16:30
Wolves appear to be back to their defensive best after beating Leeds last Monday, making it back-to-back 1-0 wins as they continue to stick to their stingy way of playing.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have been one of the leagues best organised teams since gaining promotion back to the top flight, and that stands them in good stead for another successful campaign.
While they have some extremely talented attacking players, the strength of Wolves is their back-line and just how difficult they are to play against.
Newcastle were thumped by Manchester United last weekend, again struggling to create many scoring opportunities.
Steve Bruce’s side have averaged just 0.87 non-pen xGF per game so far this season, really finding it difficult to sustain attacks and create ‘non-pen big chances’ (three so far).
They should find it difficult to do so again in this game against Wolves’ stubborn defence, so under 2.5 looks good to me at Molineux.
Brighton vs West Brom – Under 2.5 Goals @ 10/11
- Monday, 17:30
Brighton were impressive yet again this past weekend, conceding no chances other than a penalty against Palace which is some feat, while racking up 1.83 xGF themselves.
That was the fourth time this season in which the Seagulls have won the non-pen xG battle, and Graham Potter’s side sit fifth in in our xG table based on xPoints through five games.
Their process has been impressive thus far (1.85 xGF, 1.33 xGA per game), and they will likely dominate all metrics against this West Brom team.
Slaven Bilic saw his side gain their second point of the season in a deserved draw against Burnley on Monday (xG: WBA 1.06 – 1.14 BUR), with that game their best defensive performance of the season according to expected goals.
An even more defensive-minded approach yielded that result, with the Baggies switching from a back five to a back four with three holding midfielders protecting.
That same approach here could see them stay in this game, and again, the under 2.5 goals appeals despite Brighton’s impressive start.
Burnley vs Tottenham – Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/5
- Monday, 20:00
Burnley got their first point of the new season in that draw at West Brom, a very fair result based on the chances created by both teams.
So far this season, Burnley matches have seen few chances at either end (0.88 xGF, 1.21 xGA per game), but given the players the Clarets have back to full fitness, that should change.
Tottenham are one of the Premier League’s entertainers this season, with their five matches seeing 23 goals after a 3-3 thriller against West Ham last time out.
Spurs were in cruise control after a ridiculously clinical opening 15 minutes in which they scored three from their first shots (0.46 xG), but West Ham managed to get a goal that gave them hope, and Tottenham couldn’t see the game out.
That is the second time this season they have been done by a late sucker punch, but the way in which they have attacked in their last three and half games is extremely eye-catching.
Since HT away at Southampton, Spurs have racked up 11.07 xGF, so their attack is clicking, though their defence continues to look vulnerable.
They can contribute to another high-scoring, entertaining game if they continue to attack in the same manner, which I think is likely, so over 2.5 goals is the selection for the late Monday game.
- The 5-fold accumulator pays around 14/1 with Sky Bet
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