Newcastle v Wolves tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Newcastle will be hoping to return to winning ways as they host Wolves on Super Sunday. Tom Carnduff looks at the betting.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Pablo Sarabia to have 2+ tackles at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
Newcastle were odds-on for a top four finish less than a month ago. Heading into the 'Super Sunday' (questionable) clash with Wolves, Eddie Howe's men can be backed at 11/4 to feature in the Champions League next season.
It's a clear indication of how they are wobbling at the wrong time. They've failed to win any of their last five in all competitions, with defeats in their last three. That included the Carabao Cup final and their first genuine chance of silverware in years.
They're not at a desperate stage - if we're honest a top four finish was never seen as something that had to happen before a ball was kicked - but they need to arrest this slide in results. That will be tricky against a savvy Wolves side under Julen Lopetegui.
Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Newcastle 8/13 | Draw 11/4 | Wolves 19/4
The managerial change has revitalised Wolves; transformed from a team looking destined for the drop (cliché) to one capable of picking up results, even if it isn't high-scoring, free-flowing football.
A form table of the last eight games has Wolves above their opponents on Sunday, while the last ten puts them level on points. The visitors aren't certain of survival but the picture looks much, much better than it did.
It underlines the impact of the managerial switch and how much they underperformed with Bruno Lage at the helm. "This is the team we were dreaming of," he claimed at the beginning of the season - they had ten points heading into the World Cup break.
Essentially, we believe Wolves have a chance here, but there are a big number of factors at play that make me reluctant to fully delve into the outright market. There's cases for all three outcomes.
Instead, backing individuals to play their part delivers the best value, with the 9/4 available on PABLO SARABIA 2+ TACKLES particularly eye-catching.
The winger was one part in that period of change for the Wolves squad, arriving in the January window from PSG. He brings much needed quality to the front line, even if the goals haven't been flying in at the stage.
His ability on the ball is a huge strength, but his work rate off it also makes him a great system player. In away games so far, Sarabia's been contributing defensively.
He's returned just one tackle in three home league games, yet there's been at least one in all three of his league starts on the road - two of those have seen two or more.
That includes the defeat at Liverpool, where he was taken off at half-time. His tackles rate loosely follows that of his team - fewer at home than away.
Wolves rank 12th for average tackles in home games this season (16.7), yet sit 3rd in this metric away (19.6). They've averaged 18.5 tackles per competitive away game under Lopetegui, with 20+ returned in three of those.
We can expect their tally to push this number again given the likely tight contest ahead. It's also the opposition down that side of the pitch for the Wolves man, with Allan Saint-Maximin or Anthony Gordon lively threats.
Then there's Dan Burn, a joy to watch charging down that left wing. Sarabia has every chance of getting his couple of successful tackles in on the hosts' giant full-back.
Goals aren't expected which should lead to a close contest unfolding. Back SARABIA to contribute to the tackles count once again.
Newcastle v Wolves best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Pablo Sarabia to have 2+ tackles at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Newcastle 1-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1305 GMT (09/03/23)
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